April 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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txbear wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:06 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:49 pm I'm seeing some impressive hail reports from Montgomery County and Tomball. Not sure why the whining from some folks... ;)
Didnt complain about not getting hailed on. Said it before, been there done that. Seen the dents and damage.

Just opined on not feeling great about opportunity for rain tomorrow. Think that’s a fair statement given the lack of rain thus far.
Don't mind me. I'm warming up under my electric blanket with the heater running after covering my vegetable garden for a frost in the morning! :D
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txbear
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srainhoutx wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:17 pm
txbear wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:06 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:49 pm I'm seeing some impressive hail reports from Montgomery County and Tomball. Not sure why the whining from some folks... ;)
Didnt complain about not getting hailed on. Said it before, been there done that. Seen the dents and damage.

Just opined on not feeling great about opportunity for rain tomorrow. Think that’s a fair statement given the lack of rain thus far.
Don't mind me. I'm warming up under my electric blanket with the heater running after covering my vegetable garden for a frost in the morning! :D
Carry on, srain. That is some fine mid-April weather y'all are having in the Appalachian's. Bottle it up for us folks down here. Cheers.
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don
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The latest HRRR and NAM models don't look too bad,they have scattered thunderstorms this afternoon,with much more widespread rain with tomorrows disturbance.Looks like tomorrows disturbance is more potent than what the models thought earlier.
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don
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12z mesocale models,some are even showing storm training tomorrow.
Attachments
Screenshot_2021-04-16 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot_2021-04-16 Models NAM 3km CONUS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot_2021-04-16 Models HRW NMMB — Pivotal Weather.png
Cromagnum
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Down to 40% today. Just misty which at least won't let it get any drier, but not what we need down here really.
JDsGN
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Man I was really hoping we would get that 1-2” this week but it just didn’t happen. We got a 1/4” or here in Fairfield. Is the HRRR still looking healthier tomorrow ?
Cpv17
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Man the 0z GFS looks amazing tonight!! Lock it in!
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How long is this suppose to last before it pushes out of here
Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:37 am How long is this suppose to last before it pushes out of here
It’s going to be a close call on your event tonight. Could very well be some light rain still around Brazoria county this evening.
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don
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Global models have been consistently showing a potent storm system moving into Texas next Friday.They differ though on how progressive the system will be at this time.A more progressive system would mean less rainfall but a higher chance of severe weather.While a weaker system that's slower would pose more of a flash flood threat which is what the GFS has been showing,while the ICON,CMC, and EURO show a more potent and progressive system more conductive for severe weather.Bears watch as late next week we could have our first significant storm of the Spring season.
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don wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:03 pm Global models have been consistently showing a potent storm system moving into Texas next Friday.They differ though on how progressive the system will be at this time.A more progressive system would mean less rainfall but a higher chance of severe weather.While a weaker system that's slower would pose more of a flash flood threat which is what the GFS has been showing,while the ICON,CMC, and EURO show a more potent and progressive system more conductive for severe weather.Bears watch as late next week we could have our first significant storm of the Spring season.
I’ve been noticing this the past few days on the models. Last nights 0z run of the GFS looked great and then woke up this morning to crickets on the 6z GFS lol
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don
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12z GFS looks very wet with training along the I-10 corridor through Louisiana.
Cromagnum
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Less than a quarter inch through all 3 days of this so far. What a joke.
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Not much on the Euro. GFS looks much better and even then the GFS only has about an inch of rain for areas south of 10 for the next two weeks.
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Cromagnum wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:21 pm Less than a quarter inch through all 3 days of this so far. What a joke.
We got about half an inch here. At my job in Rosenberg though they probably got about 2”.
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djmike
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Is this rain evaporating before hitting the ground? Doesnt seem to be much falling compared to radar.
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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don
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djmike wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:19 pm Is this rain evaporating before hitting the ground? Doesnt seem to be much falling compared to radar.
Yep it seems to be virga, i noticed the same thing.
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DoctorMu
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May's gonna suck, but a beautiful week ahead, then showers on Friday.

Got about 1/2 inch out of the last front. The hail's done a number though on my rain gauge. Time for a new one!
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:42 pm May's gonna suck, but a beautiful week ahead, then showers on Friday.

Got about 1/2 inch out of the last front. The hail's done a number though on my rain gauge. Time for a new one!
We better get some rain and storms in May or else we’ll probably be in for a long dry hot summer.
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Rip76
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I don’t remember (because last April was so weird/Covid, etc), but was it this cool, this late in April last year?
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