April 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
txsnowmaker
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Re: April 2021

Post by txsnowmaker » Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:10 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:35 pm
NWS is already mentioning the "C" word for next week's system.

Hoping for some decent rains this Friday.
What is the “c” word?

davidiowx
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Re: April 2021

Post by davidiowx » Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:28 pm

txsnowmaker wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:10 pm
jasons2k wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:35 pm
NWS is already mentioning the "C" word for next week's system.

Hoping for some decent rains this Friday.
What is the “c” word?
That would be “cap”. Strong SW flow at it again. It’s still a way out so things can and will change

Cromagnum
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Re: April 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:45 pm

txsnowmaker wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:10 pm
jasons2k wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:35 pm
NWS is already mentioning the "C" word for next week's system.

Hoping for some decent rains this Friday.
What is the “c” word?
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don
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Re: April 2021

Post by don » Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:55 am

12z NAM still showing discreet supercells over the area.
Attachments
Screenshot_2021-04-22 Models NAM 3km CONUS — Pivotal Weather(1).png
Screenshot_2021-04-22 Models NAM 3km CONUS — Pivotal Weather(2).png

txbear
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Re: April 2021

Post by txbear » Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:58 am

HGX including wording that cap may limit rain for tomorrow, now too. Super dry SW flow that davidiowx alluded to for next week's system as well.

I think i'm looking at the HRRR model correctly for tomorrow, and it doesn't look promising for rain with SW winds aloft and a big drop in the dew point. But please correct me if I'm wrong.

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don
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Re: April 2021

Post by don » Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:14 am

Yes,there's a chance especially south of I-10 that the cap may struggle to break.But looking at a few of the 12z mesoscale models and global models most show the cap breaking.But things may be more conditional for the coastal tier of counties.

Cpv17
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Re: April 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:42 am

I’m not sure what y’all are seeing saying we won’t be getting much rain over the next week or so. Models are showing 2-4” for most of us over the next 10 days.

txbear
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Re: April 2021

Post by txbear » Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:50 am

Thanks, don.

Cpv - just looking at HRRR and what's available currently for WRF compared to what HGX is saying in their discussions. It seems to my amateur eye on the forecast sounding for my general area on the west side has it looking close to a capped situation for tomorrow. I've been pegged the past couple of chances of having anywhere from 1-2", but the cap has limited to that to maybe a 0.1 at its very best. Lucy and the football.

Not saying I'm geared up for an outbreak, but rain sure would help take the ease of the sprinklers. Pines around are also looking a bit parched in color.

Cpv17
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Re: April 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:05 am

txbear wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:50 am
Thanks, don.

Cpv - just looking at HRRR and what's available currently for WRF compared to what HGX is saying in their discussions. It seems to my amateur eye on the forecast sounding for my general area on the west side has it looking close to a capped situation for tomorrow. I've been pegged the past couple of chances of having anywhere from 1-2", but the cap has limited to that to maybe a 0.1 at its very best. Lucy and the football.

Not saying I'm geared up for an outbreak, but rain sure would help take the ease of the sprinklers. Pines around are also looking a bit parched in color.
I think we’ll get our fair share of rain over the next few weeks. Things are looking pretty promising from what I see. Best they’ve looked in a while.

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Re: April 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:31 pm

Latest Euro run is quite interesting.

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