April 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 0407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021
Areas affected...portions of east/southeast Texas into western
Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 231743Z - 231945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes,
damaging gusts and hail are expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana.
DISCUSSION...A strong low-level warm advection regime continues
across east Texas into western LA early this afternoon. A warm front
is draped northwest-to-southeast from central TX into southwest LA
per 17z surface analysis. This front should continue to gradually
lift northward over the next several hours. Dewpoints will increase
to the mid 60s to low 70s F near and south of the front,
contributing to increasing low-level instability. Forecasts
currently increase 0-3 km CAPE to around 100-150 J/kg after 20z in a
corridor near the warm front, with mixing ratios around 15-16 g/kg.
Additionally, the front will further augment already favorable
low-level wind profiles suitable for tornadoes. As a
south/southwesterly low-level jet increases to 50+ kt toward 00z,
some upscale growth into one or more bowing segments is possible.
This could increase damaging wind potential. Even as storm mode
evolves, low-level hodographs will remain favorable for mesovortex
formation and a continuation of a tornado threat with eastward
extent into western LA.
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021
Areas affected...portions of east/southeast Texas into western
Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 231743Z - 231945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes,
damaging gusts and hail are expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana.
DISCUSSION...A strong low-level warm advection regime continues
across east Texas into western LA early this afternoon. A warm front
is draped northwest-to-southeast from central TX into southwest LA
per 17z surface analysis. This front should continue to gradually
lift northward over the next several hours. Dewpoints will increase
to the mid 60s to low 70s F near and south of the front,
contributing to increasing low-level instability. Forecasts
currently increase 0-3 km CAPE to around 100-150 J/kg after 20z in a
corridor near the warm front, with mixing ratios around 15-16 g/kg.
Additionally, the front will further augment already favorable
low-level wind profiles suitable for tornadoes. As a
south/southwesterly low-level jet increases to 50+ kt toward 00z,
some upscale growth into one or more bowing segments is possible.
This could increase damaging wind potential. Even as storm mode
evolves, low-level hodographs will remain favorable for mesovortex
formation and a continuation of a tornado threat with eastward
extent into western LA.
.70" hail report near New Braunfels.
Cap is busting.
Cap is busting.
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Hrr is struggling
https://twitter.com/NWSSevereTstorm
Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Lockhart TX, Redwood TX, Martindale TX until 2:15 PM CDT
Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Lockhart TX, Redwood TX, Martindale TX until 2:15 PM CDT
This setup doesn't happen too often around here, this would kind of be considered a high shear low cape setup,usually its the other way around here locally .With most severe weather events being high cape but low shear events.
- srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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- Contact:
will you interpret for us soundings-challenged weather-boardsters
- srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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The Cap is razor thin. Looks like enough veering with height for rotating updraft. Hail production Looks possible as well. Stay weather wise this afternoon everyone!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
I know this is for NWS Fort Worth's AOR, but it does pan out to our NW reaches just to get some perspective. It'd be nice if HGX had something similar. Experimental as it may be, still interesting to keep an eye on.
https://www.weather.gov/fwd/convectiveparameters
Srain, would you mind helping explain a little of what's in that Skew-T? Am I seeing a cap with high shear and decent CAPE?
ETA: Thanks unome for also asking similar question and srain responding.
https://www.weather.gov/fwd/convectiveparameters
Srain, would you mind helping explain a little of what's in that Skew-T? Am I seeing a cap with high shear and decent CAPE?
ETA: Thanks unome for also asking similar question and srain responding.