The stuff in south Tx is going to move out in the Gulf and cut off inflow to us here. Also the blowoff clouds from all of that activity will hamper sunlight for a chunk of the day it appears.
The hrrr model shows just some Gulf inflow convection through early Friday with no mcs lines anymore from the west or northwest.
May 2021:
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TexasBreeze
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Last edited by TexasBreeze on Wed May 19, 2021 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
The firehose is certainly on full blast with everything seemingly anchored right along the coast and on out in to the gulf. I was looking at the 12z HRRR and it looked like it initiated decently well with the current radar, and trended to maybe some additional showers mainly I-10 and south.
I think it would take some drastic clearing out or backing up of boundaries to get things ramped up again here along I-10 and northward. Just seems like the atmosphere would be too worked over from last nights storms to really generate anything substantial....although it wouldn't take much to add to the flood concern/woes.
I think it would take some drastic clearing out or backing up of boundaries to get things ramped up again here along I-10 and northward. Just seems like the atmosphere would be too worked over from last nights storms to really generate anything substantial....although it wouldn't take much to add to the flood concern/woes.
A lull today with the stuff out in the Gulf may be bad news for us this overnight, however. If the storms out there dissipate this afternoon and inflow resumes...and another MCS builds to the west of us...we could be in for another round tonight and into tomorrow.
About 2 inches last light in CLL during the 90 minutes storm. Expecting another round tonight.
Update from Jeff sans images
Light rainfall continues mainly south of I-10 across the area.
Complex of thunderstorms moving well into the NW Gulf of Mexico as well as another complex moving offshore of S TX will likely keep SE TX stable today with only passing light or moderate rain showers and that mainly focused south of I-10. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday and Friday with continued high moisture levels over the area and a recovering air mass however the activity these days looks more scattered in nature and not as organized or intense as the last 48 hours.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected over the next 48 hours with the higher totals likely focused south of I-10.
Hydro:
Run-off continues from the rainfall over the last 48 hours with widespread totals of 3-5 inches over much of the area and an isolated amount of 8.56 inches in the Huffman area.
Creeks in the NW portion of Harris County remain elevation and in some cases near bankfull, along with the middle and upper portions of Cedar Bayou and the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River. Creeks in the NW portion of Harris County will crest and slowly fall this afternoon while rises will continue along the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River. All other creeks and bayous are elevated, but well within their banks.
Light rainfall continues mainly south of I-10 across the area.
Complex of thunderstorms moving well into the NW Gulf of Mexico as well as another complex moving offshore of S TX will likely keep SE TX stable today with only passing light or moderate rain showers and that mainly focused south of I-10. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday and Friday with continued high moisture levels over the area and a recovering air mass however the activity these days looks more scattered in nature and not as organized or intense as the last 48 hours.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected over the next 48 hours with the higher totals likely focused south of I-10.
Hydro:
Run-off continues from the rainfall over the last 48 hours with widespread totals of 3-5 inches over much of the area and an isolated amount of 8.56 inches in the Huffman area.
Creeks in the NW portion of Harris County remain elevation and in some cases near bankfull, along with the middle and upper portions of Cedar Bayou and the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River. Creeks in the NW portion of Harris County will crest and slowly fall this afternoon while rises will continue along the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River. All other creeks and bayous are elevated, but well within their banks.
I don't see the atmosphere recovering enough today to give us strong storms again this evening. Just a prolonged soaking rain all day.
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redneckweather
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Yep, Southeast Texas was worked over pretty and don't see it recovering today. I would expect a quiet day and night.
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Stratton20
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Well its good that alot of us avoided flooding, but hurricane season is almost upon us yet and the gulf will yet again be another prime spot for development, we avoided this flooding problem( wel most of us did) but we got a busy 4-5 months ahead pf us.
Last edited by Stratton20 on Wed May 19, 2021 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Don’t let your guard down until the ULL passes. This isn’t over just yet.
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Houstonkid
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Thur-Sat forecast from any of you pros? I am supposed to leave tomorrow for Surfside to camp in an RV (not on the beach) I don't mind the rain or general storms but I sure as heck don't want to ride out storms like we have had the last 2 days. Lindner says intensity shouldn't be as bad next couple of days.
Would you cancel?
Would you cancel?
Yeah, we need to watch the influx of gulf moisture this Friday/Saturday.While there wont be as much of a focal point for storms,precipital waters will be 2+ inches with a strong fetch of of moisture from the gulf.And some of the mesoscale models are showing small disturbances getting pulled inland from the flow,which could act as more of a focal point for more organized or concentrated precipitation.Something to keep an eye on.
Lots of inflow coming in near Freeport.
Looks like moisture moving back inland a bit over the Golden Triangle Beaumont area. We were well out of the rain shield all morning and mid afternoon. Light rain picking up here again. 2.24 so far today. 10.51 so far for the event. (3days).
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
This is still a ways out but there’s another decent signal for a heavy rain/flood event the last few days of this month but as of right now it could be just north of us. Something to watch after this event ends.
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Stratton20
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Thats over 8 dYs out in the models, Id take that with a huge grain of salt
CPC backs it up as well. It does have some ensemble support so it can’t be completely discounted. I always like to look for the next big event but I don’t really start buying too much into it till it’s within 3 days out. Also, the end of May is notorious for flooding events in southeast TX.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 4:35 pm Thats over 8 dYs out in the models, Id take that with a huge grain of salt