June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Pas_Bon wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:43 am
djmike wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:14 am
don wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:51 am0Z Euro
I SAID NOOOO TX/LA BORDER! Stop it! <wink wink>

Well, these model runs are happening because you’re an A&M fan.
Yeah, the models would mean 100°F and no rain in College Station. Again. I haven't used the sprinklers in quite awhile and would like to keep it that way. ;)
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don
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12Z GFS shows the storm slowly moving north out of the BOC late next week. With landfall of a category 1 the following week around Baffin Bay FWIW.
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Screenshot 2021-06-10 at 11-56-30 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Stratton20
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Even though thats 12 days out, I think what’s happening here is that it seems that the models are saying that whatever forms in the BOC is going to be really moving slowly North or just meandering because of weak steering currents
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don
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The Canadian is faster than the GFS fwiw with a landfall in north Mexico over the weekend of next week.
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gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_38.png
Stratton20
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Even a landfall in North Mexico would still bring us impacts , definitely something to watch, hope this system doesnt end up stall, but we shall see, definitely wouldnt be surpised by Saturday or Sunday if the NHC highlights the Southern Gulf
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DoctorMu
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A kat-astrophe.
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CRASHWX
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Again would not focus on the details....i would focus on the big picture development right now. So many things will change over the next 10 days
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:
Stratton20
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I think its important to focus on details as these model depictions can give us hints and clues as to what may happen next week( not saying these models will be right, but they definitely give us reason to watch them), I have moderate to high confidence that something will spin up in the BOC, after that well im not going to evem try to say where it will go, steering currents look to be pretty sporadic
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don
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Yep we shouldn't pay too much attention to details such as track and strength this far out,whats more important in this range is seeing consistency from run to run in regards to tc genesis. 12z EURO with a Depression or weak Tropical Storm meandering around the coast the end of next week.Until we at least have an invest expect big differences in regards to strength and track from run to run.Saying that it does seem at this time if something does develop in the gulf it will be in the western gulf and we need to keep a very close eye next week.
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Screenshot 2021-06-10 at 14-00-28 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png
Stratton20
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I know its definitely impossible to know the strength of this potential system, what am I growing somewhat concerned is the fact that the Euro is meandering this system off the Texas coast for a few days , definitely too early still, but thats not something you want to see a model showing
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jasons2k
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As others have posted, it’s too early to focus on the details of any particular model run. A lot will change over the next week that just can’t be resolved by the models this far out.

I’d advise folks to pay attention to our Senior Members and Pro-Mets for reliable information 😉
Stratton20
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The 12z Euro has the tropical disturbance getting into the BOC by this sunday/ monday, thats sooner than the GFS or other models, thats something to watch and see if this occurs
Cpv17
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The EPS definitely looks concerning for the western Gulf.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 do you have a picture?
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:19 pm Cpv17 do you have a picture?
Yep:

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Stratton20
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Oh yeah that’s definitely concerning, next week is going to be interesting for sure, we got alot to watch
Scott747
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Actually, that's not 'concerning' considering there's 50 ensemble members....
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don
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Scott747 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:34 pm Actually, that's not 'concerning' considering there's 50 ensemble members....
To be fair that's still a decent amount of ensemble support,and operational support considering were still 7+ days out from possible tc genesis.
Cpv17
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For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.
Scott747
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don wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:15 pm
Scott747 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:34 pm Actually, that's not 'concerning' considering there's 50 ensemble members....
To be fair that's still a decent amount of ensemble support,and operational support considering were still 7+ days out from possible tc genesis.
For a potential system? Somewhat, no disagreement there. But even then the ensembles are having issues with an eventual epac focus, a split or a BoC genesis. Standard op with these gyre systems.
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