As others have posted, it’s too early to focus on the details of any particular model run. A lot will change over the next week that just can’t be resolved by the models this far out.
I’d advise folks to pay attention to our Senior Members and Pro-Mets for reliable information
June 2021:
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The 12z Euro has the tropical disturbance getting into the BOC by this sunday/ monday, thats sooner than the GFS or other models, thats something to watch and see if this occurs
The EPS definitely looks concerning for the western Gulf.
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Cpv17 do you have a picture?
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Oh yeah that’s definitely concerning, next week is going to be interesting for sure, we got alot to watch
Actually, that's not 'concerning' considering there's 50 ensemble members....
For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.
For a potential system? Somewhat, no disagreement there. But even then the ensembles are having issues with an eventual epac focus, a split or a BoC genesis. Standard op with these gyre systems.