June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Well whatever happens regardless their is one thing that is pretty clear, if this does end up developing in the BOC it is going to be a western gulf threat, if that is Mexico, Louisiana or Texas , that still is to be determined
Scott747
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:25 pm For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.
The GFS now has 31 members after the recent upgrade (v.12.0) I've mentioned previously.
Cpv17
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Scott747 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:35 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:25 pm For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.
The GFS now has 31 members after the recent upgrade (v.12.0) I've mentioned previously.
Sweet. That should help.
Scott747
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:36 pm
Scott747 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:35 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:25 pm For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.
The GFS now has 31 members after the recent upgrade (v.12.0) I've mentioned previously.
Sweet. That should help.
Yeah between the operational upgrade in March and the ensemble upgrade the change was significant and substantial. Testing showed a much better hit on genesis. So those first few potential storms are important.

One knock though between the two big guns is with the GFS running four times a day as opposed to two like the euro it has more opportunities to be 'wrong.' So far it's been inline with what the euro is showing outside of a few runs and even then it wasn't by much.
Stratton20
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18z GFS run has a weak tropical storm slowly heading north and then stalls it somewhere along the middle texas coast🤔🤔
Pas_Bon
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:53 pm 18z GFS run has a weak tropical storm slowly heading north and then stalls it somewhere along the middle texas coast🤔🤔
:(
No. No. No. No. No
Cpv17
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18z GFS is a typical June sloppy sheared ts with most of the convection well east of the center.
Stormlover2020
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Yeah no doubt I would agree with the western gulf
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sambucol
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When would there be landfall if it forms and heads to the middle to upper Texas coast.
Stratton20
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SamBucol If i had to take my best guess, sometime by next friday or ao
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:25 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:19 pm Cpv17 do you have a picture?
Yep:

Image
Ensembles are indeed just picking up something disorganized near the Texas gulf coast. That works for me. The grass is starting to dry out.
Stratton20
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When do yall think the NHC will come out with a highlighted area to watch in the BOC?, the EURO has the disturbance entering the gulf on sunday
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jasons2k
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:23 pm When do yall think the NHC will come out with a highlighted area to watch in the BOC?, the EURO has the disturbance entering the gulf on sunday
After a lot more model consistency than what we have been seeing, at least for a start.

It's still early in the season and shear might be an issue. That in itself will cause potential forecast headaches...
Stratton20
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00z GFS And CMC runs just got really really interesting
Scott747
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:23 pm When do yall think the NHC will come out with a highlighted area to watch in the BOC?, the EURO has the disturbance entering the gulf on sunday
The area that the Euro is depicting is already highlighted. ;)
Stratton20
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Ah That must be on the pacific side
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:47 am Ah That must be on the pacific side
Yep. It’s been highlighted there for awhile now. I was never concerned about the area the NHC had highlighted in the Caribbean. This possible system would be an EPAC crossover into the BOC.
Stratton20
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Ah i gotcha, well have you seen the latest CMC and GFS runs, both have a very similar scenario, we might be seeing signs that the models are starting to come into better agreement
Scott747
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:54 am
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:47 am Ah That must be on the pacific side
Yep. It’s been highlighted there for awhile now. I was never concerned about the area the NHC had highlighted in the Caribbean. This possible system would be an EPAC crossover into the BOC.
The thing is that it's essentially the same system. The NHC never jumped the gun, they were just tracking and highlighting what was slowly happening in the Caribbean and continues to evolve.

It's a typical, slow crawling evolution of a CAG (Central American Gyre, or monsoonal low) that year after year can cause fits in forecasting and models.

Definitely a pita for any of us that follows these potential early systems.
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jasons2k
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Morning update from Jeff:
Impressive heat ridge of high pressure is building over the SW US and will continue to build into the weekend and next week with heights of potentially 600dm located over portions of Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico. This ridge extends NE into the US central plains with SE TX on the east/southeast side of the heat dome. This high pressure ridge will influence our weather into the weekend, but then begins to retreat toward the W and NW by late in the weekend and early next week allowing disturbances to approach from the NE as early as Sunday afternoon with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Will have to keep an eye on this period as sometimes these “NE flow” event can produce some strong and severe thunderstorms over the region.

Gulf of Mexico Late Next Week:
There is and has been “lots” of talk about the potential for some sort of tropical system to form in the southern Gulf of Mexico late next week. Global model solutions continue with the 00Z runs to show surface low pressure forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico toward the middle to end of next week and then moving generally northward. This system appears to evolve from the current area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific south of Mexico. While there is a lot to be worked out on the “when” and “where” and “how organized” there continues to be enough consistency in the guidance to signal that something may develop. Regardless of development a significant surge of tropical moisture looks at least possible toward the NW Gulf/Texas by the end of next week with at the very least an increase in rain chances. For now something to monitor in the coming days.

A good reminder we are in hurricane season and now is a good time to make sure your plans and kits are fully stocked and ready for any potential threats that we may face this season.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
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