June 2021:

[Stratton20]

Don, definitely very interesting, something to watch

[davidiowx]

Definitely some westward shifts in these latest runs. Let's see what the Euro has shortly. More importantly, is this some consensus or just the windshield wipers going back and forth. Me thinks models will be playing switcharoo through Thursday.

[davidiowx]

Watch this thing just get buried in Mexico and go away LOL

[Harveyvsallison]

Don, definitely very interesting, something to watch

GFS ensembles shifted way west !!!!!

[Stratton20]

Does someone have a picture of the newest GFS ensembles? I cant find them

[Harveyvsallison]

Does someone have a picture of the newest GFS ensembles? I cant find them

Go on tropical tidbits

[Harveyvsallison]

[Stratton20]

Ah yes I saw it, definitely much closer to us!, definitely will be interesting to see what the Euro says

[don]

12Z EURO looks similar to the 12Z GFS further to the west with a tighter system with wrap around moisture in southeast Texas as the storm makes landfall near Freeport/ Galveston.

[Stratton20]

Oh boy

[Cromagnum]

Might get sporty in areas today. I don't recall ever seeing Downbursts mentioned specifically in a MCD.

Mesoscale Discussion 0978 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Areas affected...southeast Texas through southern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151826Z - 152100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may become capable of producing isolated downburst winds from mid afternoon through early evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in towering cumulus development from southeast TX into southern LA with a few showers also indicated on radar. The boundary layer in this region is very moist with low to mid 70s F dewpoints supporting 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE as temperatures climb through the upper 80s to low 90s F. Thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage this afternoon within the pre-frontal warm sector and along sea-breeze boundaries. Very weak vertical shear will promote pulse and multicell storms. However, the thermodynamic environment (as indicated by the 18Z LIX RAOB) appears favorable for a few instances of downburst winds with the stronger storms.

..Dial/Grams.. 06/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 29659048 29969298 29829425 29419520 30079547 31049447 30649209 30398975 29659048

[jasons2k]

It’s not uncommon when surface temps get close to 100f. There’s just so much instability that it creates some massive convective bursts that then collapse into a downdraft.

[Harveyvsallison]

Euro and GFS shifted towards more of a rain event for southeast Texas along with the NAM and Navy model

[Stratton20]

HarveyvAllison, yup thats been the trend today, definitely will need to be monitored very closely

[don]

The reason why models have shifted to the west is that they are showing less center relocations to the northeast.And are keeping the southern circulation that forms in the BOC as the more dominate feature.Allowing the system to take a more westerly track.We'll see, but i would like to see the trend continue before getting onboard.

[don]

FWIW it does seem to be pretty good agreement this afternoon with most models showing a landfall along the middle or upper Texas coast.Saying that even with a direct landfall we would need the system to be more organized to get any significant rain.

[Harveyvsallison]

FWIW it does seem to be pretty good agreement this afternoon with most models showing a landfall along the middle or upper Texas coast.Saying that even with a direct landfall we would need the system to be more organized to get any significant rain.

I expect models to cluster near the matagorda Bay Area

[snowman65]

of the 23 named storms coming this year, I'm guessing we will be the bullseye for 9-11 of them. Looks like we are off to a good start

[Pas_Bon]

of the 23 named storms coming this year, I'm guessing we will be the bullseye for 9-11 of them. Looks like we are off to a good start

I blame all of this on you, by the way.

[Stratton20]

Oof sorry yall I think I forgot to put my Texas tropical system magnet away, thats what the models are picking up on!