June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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12Z EURO ensembles.
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davidiowx
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:58 pm It’s not uncommon when surface temps get close to 100f. There’s just so much instability that it creates some massive convective bursts that then collapse into a downdraft.
Yep! Reminds me of when I was a kid and it seemed like we would get pop up strong storms quite often in the summer times. Maybe my memory is off, but it seems like that stopped happening over the last several years. It is nice to see this right now though! Just the clouds and boundaries created by these can significantly cool down the surface temps without even needing any rain at all.
Harveyvsallison
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don wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:13 pm12Z EURO ensembles.
More near the central Texas coast now !!
Harveyvsallison
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Models now showing less
Center reformations which is hard to believe. However, let’s see what 18Z GFs and NAM show
davidiowx
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What's goin on NW of the Yucatan Peninsula? Possible new CofC?
Harveyvsallison
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davidiowx wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:50 pm What's goin on NW of the Yucatan Peninsula? Possible new CofC?
Mostly mid levels but that would be a area to watch the next 24 hours !
Harveyvsallison
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Latest NAM shifts even more west !!
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Stratton20
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Seeing that the NAM has shifted even further west, this tells me that models are picking up on the circulation down in the BOC being the dominant feature, which makes sense as thats where the “strongest convection” is currently located
Last edited by Stratton20 on Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
JDsGN
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davidiowx wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:22 pm
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:58 pm It’s not uncommon when surface temps get close to 100f. There’s just so much instability that it creates some massive convective bursts that then collapse into a downdraft.
Yep! Reminds me of when I was a kid and it seemed like we would get pop up strong storms quite often in the summer times. Maybe my memory is off, but it seems like that stopped happening over the last several years. It is nice to see this right now though! Just the clouds and boundaries created by these can significantly cool down the surface temps without even needing any rain at all.
I have the same memories. it was 25 years ago and i can remember almost every afternoon it seemed like there was at a minimum black skys off to one direction. It didn't always rain where i was but there seemed to be something around town. I'm sure my memory is a bit distorted but it hasn't been that way for many years.
Stratton20
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18z NAM is even further west, very interesting
TexasBreeze
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We used to see more lines of storms come through during cold front season and now it is a hard feat to come by. The daily seabreeze front in summer with storms around 12 noon to 4 pm is hard to come by too.
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jasons2k
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Close but no cigar today…
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don
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Nice update from HGX, mentions the possibility of the system organizing a little more as it nears the coast.With "tropical weather" possible Friday night and Saturday.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
Ridging over the 4-Corners will be slowly weakening and flattening
this will allow the tropical moisture and system in the Bay of
Campeche to lift northward. This tropical system will be a large
part of the forecast. Hurricane Center has it at 40% through day
two and 80% through day 5 for development. The guidance continues
to show both a slow moving system initially and poorly organized
until around Friday morning when it may reform as convection gets
cranking with the system. Then the system starts a more northerly
motion. A lot of uncertainty in the models is giving us a good
range of possibilities on track and for the most part this should
take it toward southwest Louisiana or the Texas coast generally
along and east of Freeport. A few outliers further west or east of
that area but those are probably much lower probability events.
Stress here is on the fact that without a center the models are
going to struggle with the ultimate track and intensity as well as
where are the associated storms. If this goes according to plan
that wouldn`t take place until Thursday night/Friday morning and
then the system is moving north. The system should be pretty
ragged with shear and probably one sided until it gets into the
northwestern Gulf then it could get somewhat more symmetric. As
it stands this system should be pushing onto land early Saturday.
Storms north of the system should be moving into the coastal
waters Friday and then into the coastal areas in the afternoon and
evening. A fairly strong upper low moving through Canada/MN/MI
Friday night should help weaken the ridging north of the tropical
system draw it north and then northeast...hence the Louisiana
concerns.

As for the weather in the shorter term - still hot Thursday with
slight chance/chance mainly south for storms during peak heating
along the seabreeze. Thursday evening the storms wane with loss
of heating and a fairly pleasant remainder of the night. Friday
the chance for storms increase along the coast. Drier air mixes in
late in the day across the north. Friday focuses on the tropical
system and probably a sharp demarcation between storms from
not in the northwest to in the southeast. Friday night and
Saturday tropical weather...then it shifts eastward and drier air
wraps around and across much of the area by Sunday though probably
still juicy over the south so could see a good band of showers and
thunderstorms set up. Warmth and slight chance for storms returns
late Sunday through Tuesday.
Cromagnum
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Pretty feisty in areas. South of town looking towards the northwest.

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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:51 pm Pretty feisty in areas. South of town looking towards the northwest.

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Very Nice.

NAM is hugging the coast (sound familiar?), but I'm still laying down my bet on the LaTx border with convection east of the center. Nada IMBY.
Cromagnum
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Outflow about to go through downtown. Might cause some jailbreaks
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DoctorMu
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davidiowx wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:22 pm
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:58 pm It’s not uncommon when surface temps get close to 100f. There’s just so much instability that it creates some massive convective bursts that then collapse into a downdraft.
Yep! Reminds me of when I was a kid and it seemed like we would get pop up strong storms quite often in the summer times. Maybe my memory is off, but it seems like that stopped happening over the last several years. It is nice to see this right now though! Just the clouds and boundaries created by these can significantly cool down the surface temps without even needing any rain at all.
Yep. Look at the popcorn storms popping through the mid-level dry air.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
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djmike
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Getting bombed in Beaumont right now. This lightning is INTENSE! Sheesh! 1” hail falling now.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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