A trough and front following Gulf moisture return will bring some excitement and a chance of rain Monday and into Tuesday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
327 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...
Radar is clear thus far this afternoon, though the inland
propagation of the seabreeze may trigger a few isolated airmass
thunderstorms through the early evening hours. That being said, any
rainfall of significance is unlikely as a lack of vertical shear
along with dry air aloft will stifle convective activity. Meanwhile,
with the departure of Tropical Storm Claudette well to our east,
winds will continue to veer to the south/southeast overnight (though
wind speeds should remain lighter and variable through tomorrow
morning). This should allow for a recovery of moisture over the next
few days and a return to surface dew points in the mid to upper 70s.
Expect more of the same for overnight lows this evening, with values
remaining in the mid/upper 70s inland and around 80 along the coast.
Galveston and Houston Hobby low temperatures may approach record
high minimum values (82 and 80, respectively).
Rainfall chances will be on the increase tomorrow as a plume of
abundant moisture arrives in SE TX. Global models continue to
indicate PW values rising to anomalous levels across the area--
around 2 to 2.3 inches by late Sunday. This increase in moisture, as
well as ample surface instability and the passage of a weak midlevel
disturbance, should be sufficient to trigger showers and storms
during the day and evening tomorrow. The most widespread activity
should initially be confined to the coast before spreading inland.
Another day of highs in the mid 90s is also on the cards, with heat
indicies expected to be near (but likely below) the advisory
threshold of 108. Continue to practice heat safety if planning any
outdoor activities for Father`s Day. Showers/storms will continue
through Sunday night with lows once again remaining in the upper 70s
to lower 80s.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...[Monday through Saturday]
On Monday morning, A weak short wave trough will extend from
Louisiana across coastal Texas. Lift associated with the trough
axis coupled with PW values around 2.00 inches should allow for
some diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. An upper level
disturbance embedded in the NW flow aloft coupled with a weak
surface front will produce additional showers and storms Monday
night into Tuesday. Upper level winds show a split over SE TX will
should aid in lift and the GFS (moreso than the EC) shows some jet
dynamics in play as SE TX will lie in a weak jet couplet. The weak
cold front will likely stall before reaching the coast and models
have the front in various location but there is a growing
consensus that the front will stall across the central CWA or
roughly along a Columbus to Tomball to Cleveland line. A weak
boundary, high moisture levels and some jet dynamics could yield
pockets of locally heavy rain Monday night into Tuesday and that
is something that will need to be watched as we approach that time
period.
Upper level ridging will try to reassert itself for the middle and
latter half of next week but the ridge is centered west and
heights only build to around 592 DM so suppression from the ridge
looks modestly strong but probably not enough to suppress isolated
activity along the seabreeze each aftn with a touch of heating.
Will maintain lowish PoPs, again mainly diurnally driven for the
second half of next week.
As for temps, slightly cooler than climo to start the week due to
clouds and precip but the second half of the week looks warm with
MaxT values climbing back up into the mid and upper 90`s. MinT
values should be a bit cooler with some rain cooled air Mon/Tues
but values will warm to above climo by the end of the week as the
upper level ridge begins to expand eastward. 43
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and lower pressures
over the central plains will maintain a light onshore flow
tonight. Long period swells propagating into the coastal waters
will promt a SCEC for the offshore waters tongiht. The flow will
strengthen Sunday and especially Sunday night into Monday as the
pressure gradient tightens. An SCA will be required by late Sunday
as winds and seas build. Although the rip current risk was lower
today, feel the increasing onshore flow on Sunday will bring the
rip current risk back up by Sunday afternoon. The pressure
gradient will relax on Monday as a weak front moves into SE TX. A
more typical summer pattern will develop over the second half of
next week as onshore winds increase at night over the Gulf and
decrease during the day. Over the bays, winds will increase during
the day and decrease at night.
Water levels will stay below 3.0 feet through Sunday but a
developing strong onshore flow will bring water levels to between
3.0 and 3.5 feet Monday and Tuesday. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 94 78 94 74 / 0 10 10 40 50
Houston (IAH) 77 94 79 94 76 / 20 50 30 50 60
Galveston (GLS) 83 91 83 91 80 / 40 60 40 40 60
June 2021:
Man, the western Gulf waters have warmed significantly. 29-30°C all over the place.
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Stratton20
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- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Just arrived to Panama Beach , Florida after what was supposed to be a 10 hour drive ended up becoming 13 hours thanks to some awful traffic and some heavy rain bands from the Tropical storm that moved inland
Well the 12z gfs went a little bonkers.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
CPV17 haha yeah just saw that, maybe something to watch in the gulf around days 10-11,but yeah I definitely dont expect a major hurricane, conditions still are not overly conducive for that to occur in the gulf yet
I’m not sure if there’s ever been a major in the Gulf that early in the season.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:29 pm CPV17 haha yeah just saw that, maybe something to watch in the gulf around days 10-11,but yeah I definitely dont expect a major hurricane, conditions still are not overly conducive for that to occur in the gulf yet
I know there's been at least one major in the gulf in June. Which was Hurricane Audrey in 1957.
Two nice looking rounds of storms today in my area and both times the cell splits in half and I barely get anything. Hoping Monday delivers something.
Cro, check out the HRRR. It looks a bit concerning as far as flooding potential goes for the southern and sw parts of the viewing area. It might just be a hair south of you but it might be a close call. Either way, I think you should see some rain in your area today or tomorrow.
Got a link? I tried pulling it up but all I found was tables of data. Could not find a graphic.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:00 pmCro, check out the HRRR. It looks a bit concerning as far as flooding potential goes for the southern and sw parts of the viewing area. It might just be a hair south of you but it might be a close call. Either way, I think you should see some rain in your area today or tomorrow.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 62018&fh=0Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:13 pmGot a link? I tried pulling it up but all I found was tables of data. Could not find a graphic.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:00 pmCro, check out the HRRR. It looks a bit concerning as far as flooding potential goes for the southern and sw parts of the viewing area. It might just be a hair south of you but it might be a close call. Either way, I think you should see some rain in your area today or tomorrow.
Anything over 10 days on GFS is a science fiction movie...but for entertainment purposes only...
Canadian has a weak low off Brownsville then, fwiw
Canadian has a weak low off Brownsville then, fwiw
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Over half an inch of rain so far today. Nice little cool down.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:21 pmhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 62018&fh=0Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:13 pmGot a link? I tried pulling it up but all I found was tables of data. Could not find a graphic.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:00 pm
Cro, check out the HRRR. It looks a bit concerning as far as flooding potential goes for the southern and sw parts of the viewing area. It might just be a hair south of you but it might be a close call. Either way, I think you should see some rain in your area today or tomorrow.
Thanks. Guess we will see. Looks to be southwest of me, but maybe I'll get lucky.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Beautiful weather today here in Panama City, no rain!
Another .50” totaling 1” for today so far. Woot woot! Enjoying this and clouds after the last brutal week. My AC is thanking Mother Nature. Lol
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
The next couple of days look wet around here.If you didn't see any rain today you probably will sometime over the next couple of days. 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
326 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021
.SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]...
Increasing low-level moisture today has led to the development of
scattered showers and storms across SE TX, including a few isolated
stronger storms that managed to drop around a half inch of rain
across portions of the metro area. That being said, convective
initiation has been a bit sparser this afternoon than the morning
CAM runs had depicted. With peak heating soon to pass, I`ve trimmed
PoPs back from "Likely" to "Chance" in some locations to reflect
these trends. Expect some additional scattered thunderstorms over
the next several hours before the loss of diurnal heating produces a
downward trend overnight. Areas closer to the coast, where moisture
flux remains strongest are likely to see lingering showers through
the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning before diurnally
driven activity resumes by late morning. Lows tonight will remain in
the upper 70s to near 80 despite the rain-cooled air, as increased
cloud cover inhibits radiative cooling.
Moisture will continue to be on the increase on Monday, the first
day of astronomical summer, as the surface pressure gradient
tightens. Global models remain in agreement in showing PW values of
over 2 in across most of SE TX by Monday afternoon. With NAM/GFS
model soundings indicating convective temps in the lower 90s and
SBCAPE values eclipsing 2000 J/kg, another round of diurnally driven
airmass thunderstorms looks to be in store. Expect high temperatures
to top out in the lower 90s during the afternoon, about 2-3 degF
lower than today, aided by the aforementioned precipitation.
More widespread precipitation arrives on Monday night. As a
deepening surface low pushes into the Canadian maritimes, an
associated surface cold frontal boundary will drag through much of
the eastern half of the CONUS, eventually arriving at our doorstep
around midnight on Monday and reaching the Houston metro during the
early morning hours of Tuesday. This will not only allow for more
widespread coverage of showers/storms, but also potentially for some
locally heavy downpours that may last into late Tuesday morning (see
Long Term section below).
.LONG TERM...[Tuesday through Sunday]
A long wave trough over the Great Lakes will extend into SE TX
Tuesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
Tuesday morning as the trough axis moves east. There could be
brief window of locally heavy rain early Tuesday if training
develops as hinted by the NAM12. The trough axis will move east by
afternoon and rain chances should trend lower as the day
progresses and upper level ridging over the desert southwest
begins to expand eastward. The expanding upper ridge does not look
as strong as the last upper level ridge with 500 mb heights
between 591-593 DM. SE TX will also lie on the eastern edge of the
ridge so it`s plausible to get some isolated showers and storms
each afternoon with differential heating. Will carry lowish PoPs
through the end of the work week but most areas will likely remain
dry. MaxT values will be warm but it is the end of June and mid
90`s is pretty close to climo so it`s looking rather typical.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
326 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021
.SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]...
Increasing low-level moisture today has led to the development of
scattered showers and storms across SE TX, including a few isolated
stronger storms that managed to drop around a half inch of rain
across portions of the metro area. That being said, convective
initiation has been a bit sparser this afternoon than the morning
CAM runs had depicted. With peak heating soon to pass, I`ve trimmed
PoPs back from "Likely" to "Chance" in some locations to reflect
these trends. Expect some additional scattered thunderstorms over
the next several hours before the loss of diurnal heating produces a
downward trend overnight. Areas closer to the coast, where moisture
flux remains strongest are likely to see lingering showers through
the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning before diurnally
driven activity resumes by late morning. Lows tonight will remain in
the upper 70s to near 80 despite the rain-cooled air, as increased
cloud cover inhibits radiative cooling.
Moisture will continue to be on the increase on Monday, the first
day of astronomical summer, as the surface pressure gradient
tightens. Global models remain in agreement in showing PW values of
over 2 in across most of SE TX by Monday afternoon. With NAM/GFS
model soundings indicating convective temps in the lower 90s and
SBCAPE values eclipsing 2000 J/kg, another round of diurnally driven
airmass thunderstorms looks to be in store. Expect high temperatures
to top out in the lower 90s during the afternoon, about 2-3 degF
lower than today, aided by the aforementioned precipitation.
More widespread precipitation arrives on Monday night. As a
deepening surface low pushes into the Canadian maritimes, an
associated surface cold frontal boundary will drag through much of
the eastern half of the CONUS, eventually arriving at our doorstep
around midnight on Monday and reaching the Houston metro during the
early morning hours of Tuesday. This will not only allow for more
widespread coverage of showers/storms, but also potentially for some
locally heavy downpours that may last into late Tuesday morning (see
Long Term section below).
.LONG TERM...[Tuesday through Sunday]
A long wave trough over the Great Lakes will extend into SE TX
Tuesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
Tuesday morning as the trough axis moves east. There could be
brief window of locally heavy rain early Tuesday if training
develops as hinted by the NAM12. The trough axis will move east by
afternoon and rain chances should trend lower as the day
progresses and upper level ridging over the desert southwest
begins to expand eastward. The expanding upper ridge does not look
as strong as the last upper level ridge with 500 mb heights
between 591-593 DM. SE TX will also lie on the eastern edge of the
ridge so it`s plausible to get some isolated showers and storms
each afternoon with differential heating. Will carry lowish PoPs
through the end of the work week but most areas will likely remain
dry. MaxT values will be warm but it is the end of June and mid
90`s is pretty close to climo so it`s looking rather typical.