don wrote: ↑Mon Jul 05, 2021 6:53 pm
Loved this paragraph from HGX afternoon discussion today.
Rain chances remain in the 50%-70% range for today
and tomorrow, but there is some good news! Notice that we haven`t
discussed temperatures yet? If it was going to be significantly hot,
I would`ve led with that! It`s early July, and we`re expecting most
locations to remain below 90 degrees! Those that don`t get in on the
rainfall over the next couple of days (there will be at least a few
of you) will be the ones that find themselves with highs in the low
90s. Otherwise, the rain, cloud cover, and saturated grounds will
keep temperatures 5 to 7 degrees below normal in the afternoon hours
through Tuesday. That`s a pretty good trade off if you ask me!
This looks to be mainly a south TX event for the next few days. Some isolated areas might get a few inches of rain but not seeing anything widespread for our area.
The surface low is developing now in South Texas. And helping to pull more moisture inland. With widespread rain ongoing south of I-10 this morning.Looks like models underestimated rainfall coverage today.The rain is also being enhanced by a meso low near Victoria.The rainy pattern looks to continue into next week as another trough moves into the plains. Localized street flooding is still the primary concern.As others have said any widespread flooding is not expected at this time.
Getting heavy rain this morning for like the 7th day in a row now. What an impressive pattern we've been in since late May. I think the deep trough during February's winter storm, may have something to do with the constant weakness that has been over the state for the last couple of months.Plus the saturated soil is also helping to keep the weakness in place..I don't even remember the last time we had a summer this wet.
don wrote: ↑Tue Jul 06, 2021 8:59 am
Getting heavy rain this morning for like the 7th day in a row now. What an impressive pattern we've been in since late May. I think the deep trough during February's winter storm, may have something to do with the constant weakness that has been over the state for the last couple of months.Plus the saturated soil is also helping to keep the weakness in place..I don't even remember the last time we had a summer this wet.
Up here in The Woodlands, we have had an unmeasurable amount of rain on Sunday and Monday.
I ran our sprinklers last night.
No rain thus far this morning.
Yep some spots haven't seen that much rain over the last 7 days.While other areas have seen up to 5-6+ inches of rain in the last 7 days alone.Its feast or famine around here due to the mesoscale driven nature of this pattern..
I dont know. We just had a torrential downpour in Beaumont with roads filling up quick. Local met said he updated our chances for rain from 40% to 70% on air! Getting much more than mets thought and looking out into the gulf it doesn’t look like its gonna end soon either for Beaumont and Houston or the entire coast.
Y’all should check out the 12z HRRR. Looks like possibly the bigger rain totals could get a lil further north than I thought if the HRRR were to verify.
Looks like the heavy rain from this morning from Houston to Beaumont is quickly dissipating. That might make for a fairly quiet day around these parts. We have had a few showers around Lake Conroe over the past few days giving me just under an inch total.
Interesting 12z mesoscale models this morning. They are showing the formation of an inland depression, with feeder bands forming on the right side of the system.Just like what the Canadian model has been showing for several days now. The difference this morning is that some of the models are forming the low further north towards the middle Texas coast instead of deep south Texas.Something to watch as that would greatly increase rainfall amounts and coverage towards the end of the week.With some models showing Precipitable waters of above 2.5 inches.
Dls2010r wrote: ↑Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:12 am
I’m learning. How do you get an inland depression? Someone care to explain?
That would be usually from a weather phenomenon called the "Brown Ocean Effect". Basically in a nutshell a storm can keep it's strength, or even strengthen, over land that has had a lot of rain and moist soils.
Its from the brown ocean effect when the soil is very saturated sometimes surface lows can gain tropical characteristics on land especially if their near the coast.Rather it gets classified or not is another story.Most of the time the NHC wont classify a system if it develops inland as the winds usually don't meet the criteria for tc designation.But sometimes they do like Claudette last month. The 2016 August Summer flood in Louisiana is an example of a similar system.
