July 2021

[Cpv17]

Big bust down here in Wharton County so far. Woke up to maybe about 2” total since yesterday. Was expecting to wake up to at least triple that amount.

I think this whole event was over hyped just a little bit

I can get more rain in 30 min from a random pop up afternoon thunderstorm than this.

[Stratton20]

Yup this event was a bust and overhyped

[Cromagnum]

The folks in Rockport wouldn't agree with calling it a bust. That said it wasn't remotely close to a core rain event anywhere near us.

[djmike]

Last two days. Maybe two showers and sprinkles. Been waiting for the main event FOR OUR AREA what local mets were forecasting for us. Im sure mid Texas its not considered a bust, but Id say Hou/Bmt from what locals mets were forecasting last 3 days and esp overnight and today, its a bust.

[Cromagnum]

It's starting to fill in on the east side of this impulse. I bet by early afternoon Houston will be dealing with it.

[davidiowx]

It's about to get interesting here!

[JDsGN]

Im not sure how this is a bust. It was never called for more than 2-3" inches in most of the metro and surrounding areas. I know some areas to the southwest got dry slotted but there is a strong storm pushing up from the south right now. Its not over.

[Stratton20]

Na its a bust regardless, I got maybe an inch here in katy

[JDsGN]

Na its a bust regardless

I don't know about that. Its done exactly what it was supposed to? It rained a ton down south near matagorda bay and the surrounding areas. If anything id say the time frame of clearing out was more of a bust reading space city weather and others. 1.5-2" is common in Harris County over the past 24 hours and it has more moving in. The only hype i saw was really on here with "what if it sets up more north" etc...

[Cpv17]

Na its a bust regardless

I don't know about that. Its done exactly what it was supposed to? It rained a ton down south near matagorda bay and the surrounding areas. If anything id say the time frame of clearing out was more of a bust reading space city weather and others. 1.5-2" is common in Harris County over the past 24 hours and it has more moving in. The only hype i saw was really on here with "what if it sets up more north" etc...

Overall it was a bust especially for the southwestern parts of the area.

[Stratton20]

And my power went out due to a little wind and light rain, lovely, absolute joke of a power grid,

[don]

Na its a bust regardless

I don't know about that. Its done exactly what it was supposed to? It rained a ton down south near matagorda bay and the surrounding areas. If anything id say the time frame of clearing out was more of a bust reading space city weather and others. 1.5-2" is common in Harris County over the past 24 hours and it has more moving in. The only hype i saw was really on here with "what if it sets up more north" etc...

Thank you,this event was not a bust from Harris county and eastward, there was never even a Flash flood watch issued for a reason for the eastern half of the area....1-3 inches was in the forecast and that's exactly what has happened with more rain still moving in.From the beginning the coastal bend region had the best chance of excessive rain due to its proximity to the low. And that is exactly what happened. I said this the other day but I will say it again.PLEASE stop reading model runs as forecast, they are not forecast, they are just potential scenarios.If the NWS doesn't have it in the official forecast it is NOT a Bust.

[Stratton20]

Im done, im filing a lawsuit against whoever supplies electricty to our house, if power grids cant handle a little tain and some wind, we got a huge problem in the state then, now my aquarium animals are all going to die without the filter on

[Rip76]

Radar definitely filling in for the Houston area now.

[Rip76]

Im done, im filing a lawsuit against whoever supplies electricty to our house, if power grids cant handle a little tain and some wind, we got a huge problem in the state then, now my aquarium animals are all going to die without the filter on

Maybe this is the problem.

https://abc13.com/whats-on-fire-in-nor ... /10874405/

[Belmer]

I'm perplexed reading comments saying how this event was a bust. Outside of the HRRR (which hasn't had the greatest reputation IMO with these cutoff and meso lows the last few months) showing 12-16" overnight for someone, it has mainly totaled what was forecasted several days in advance.

No need to flood this forum with images from archived model runs, but I just spent 20 minutes looking over the Euro, CMC, GFS, NAM, WRF and the consistency was anywhere from 1-4" across Houston metro and surrounding counties with isolated areas getting 6"+. The heaviest rainfall has always been focused to our southwest where they have received 12"+. In addition, most all global and hi-res models continued to advertise most of the rainfall would be focused south of I-10 which has also materialized.

To be honest, from a forecasting perspective, I think models did an excellent job. I think the rainfall amounts back that up as well...

This was HGX's graphic yesterday evening for the overnight and today's rains:

HGX Rainfall Forecast

Here are the 24 hour rainfall totals that was valid at 7am this morning:

24-hour Rainfall

7-day rainfall totals:

Weekly rainfall totals

If you rely on one model time after time with QPF, you will get burned 95% of the time. HGX doesn't always get it right either. Seems we only hear about when they are wrong. They get my compliments from their great discussions over the last several days. Great guys and gals over there who know what they are doing.

[Stratton20]

Rip76 no it isnt because they said it didnt inpact any outages in the area, I got a dog with cancer to take of, and no air conditioning is a huge problem, cant charge my phone, cant work on college work, foods probably going to spoil because of no power to the refrigerator, im suing these clowns

[Rip76]

I'm perplexed reading comments saying how this event was a bust. Outside of the HRRR (which hasn't had the greatest reputation IMO with these cutoff and meso lows the last few months) showing 12-16" overnight for someone, it has mainly totaled what was forecasted several days in advance.

No need to flood this forum with images from archived model runs, but I just spent 20 minutes looking over the Euro, CMC, GFS, NAM, WRF and the consistency was anywhere from 1-4" across Houston metro and surrounding counties with isolated areas getting 6"+. The heaviest rainfall has always been focused to our southwest where they have received 12"+. In addition, most all global and hi-res models continued to advertise most of the rainfall would be focused south of I-10 which has also materialized.

To be honest, from a forecasting perspective, I think models did an excellent job. I think the rainfall amounts back that up as well...

This was HGX's graphic yesterday evening for the overnight and today's rains:

HGX graphic.jpg



Here are the 24 hour rainfall totals that was valid at 7am this morning:

24 hour rainfall.jpg



7-day rainfall totals:

Weekly rainfall.jpg




If you rely on one model time after time with QPF, you will get burned 95% of the time. HGX doesn't always get it right either. Seems we only hear about when they are wrong. They get my compliments from their great discussions over the last several days. Great guys and gals over there who know what they are doing.

Completely agree.

[sambucol]

Rip76 no it isnt because they said it didnt inpact any outages in the area, I got a dog with cancer to take of, and no air conditioning is a huge problem, cant charge my phone, cant work on college work, foods probably going to spoil because of no power to the refrigerator, im suing these clowns

Something to think about. Since our experience with power failures across the state in February, we are now more clearly aware of the fragile state the power grid is in. We all know it will be a long time before that is taken care of. In the meantime, maybe consider purchasing a small generator to run the aquarium and maybe an appliance or two?

[TXWeatherMan]

I think what happened is some people were trying to wishcast the heaviest rains towards Houston for some reason, but when it didn’t happen they called it a bust.