July 2021

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151104
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
604 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

.AVIATION...

Streamer showers have waned a bit this morning but daytime heating
will trigger additional showers and thunderstorms by mid morning.
Convective temperatures are only in the mid 80s and this threshold
should be reached early so feel onset of storms will be a little
earlier than usual. have TEMPO`d TAF sites along and east of I-45
today and will carry vicinity elsewhere. The showers should end
this evening with the loss of heating but some streamer showers
will again be possible near the coast overnight through early
Friday. A brief window of MVFR ceilings will be possible near KCLL
through 15z and will again be possible between 09-12z on Friday
morning. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021/

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will remain where it
is through Friday. This will allow for a continuation of onshore
winds and an active sea breeze today and tomorrow. Additional lift
associated with a trough of low pressure extending from the Great
Lakes into the southern plains will bring the region another good
chance for showers and storms today. Satellite derived PW values
show 2.20 inches over SE TX early this morning and showers will
continue to stream into the region. Capping is weak in area forecast
soundings and convective temperatures remain low, generally mid 80`s
across the area. The GFS shows some weak PVA this afternoon as well
which will likely enhance lift so all in all looks like an active
day for showers and thunderstorms. MaxT values will be similar to
yesterday and remain below climo with high temperatures around 90
degrees. Will carry lowish PoPs tonight and lean toward persistence
with streamer showers possible. Rain cooled air from from today`s
convection should allow overnight low temperatures to fall into the
lower and middle 70`s, warmer near the coast.

There really isn`t an appreciable change in the weather pattern on
Friday with sfc high pressure to the east and a slight weakness
aloft associated with the trough over the southern plains. PW values
look slightly drier on Friday and convective temperatures look a bit
warmer with values around 90 degrees so feel rain chances will trend
slightly drier but daytime heating and the seabreeze will still
foster a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Will carry PoPs into
the evening for any leftover aftn storms with a gap in precip mid
evening with streamer showers developing prior to sunrise
Saturday.

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the weekend
as an upper level trough swings across the Mississippi River Valley
initiating. The bulk of the precipitation associated with this
system will be east of our region, but the southern fringe of the
trough will be able to initiate showers and thunderstorms north
of I-10 and east of I-45. There will also be a chance of
precipitation developing along the coast due to the sea breeze and
boundary interactions. Activity will decrease overnight Saturday
night, but expect redevelopment on Sunday east of I-45 as the base
of the trough lingers over Lousiana. Sunday is looking to have
the least amount of precipitation coverage through the long term.
Temperatures through the weekend will continue to be near normal
with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s.
Conditions will feel quite muggy thanks to PWATs remaining in the
1.9 to 2 inch range causing heat indices to climb into the triple
digits. However, coverage of the precipitation will heavily
influence the heat indices as the rain cooled air will bring in
relief.

A weak boundary will set up across the Red River Valley out through
the East Coast on Sunday, and this boundary will slowly move
southwards into Southeast Texas on Monday. Unfortunately this
boundary will not be moving much once it gets to the Gulf Coast
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day through the
rest of the long term. Tuesday is currently expected to be the
wettest day through the long term as an upper level low becomes cut
off across East Texas. However, what happens to this upper level low
beyond Tuesday is still a bit uncertain. The GFS and Canadian has
this system deepening and retrograding westwards into North Texas by
Wednesday. This solution brings the bulk of the precipitation to the
west of our area through Thursday (though precipitation would still
be possible across our area between high moisture content, daytime
heating, and shortwaves rounding the edge of the low). The EC
doesn`t cut off the low and keeps a broad trough across the Gulf
Coast through Thursday. This keeps higher precipitation chances
through the week across the area. Because of the uncertainty, kept
mainly just a chance of precipitation through the long term.
Daytime temperatures would cool slightly Monday through Thursday
thanks to increased cloud cover and precipitation.

Fowler

MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue through the weekend
and into next week with wave heights remaining between 2 and 4
feet. Rip current threat continues to remain low through the
weekend, but remember a low threat does not mean no threat. There
will continue to be a chance of showers and thunderstorms each
day through the weekend with highest coverage occuring during the
late night and morning time periods. Chance of scattered
precipitation increases next week as a weak boundary approaches
from the north.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 74 92 74 92 / 40 10 40 10 20
Houston (IAH) 92 76 91 76 91 / 70 20 60 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 90 81 89 / 40 20 40 10 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Stratton20]

12z Euro has a 27 inch bullseye near Tyler, Texas, it all depends on where this potential cut off low tracks...

[Cpv17]

I expected the radar to be a lot more active today. We had more rain around the past couple days with a lot lower chances.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I expected the radar to be a lot more active today. We had more rain around the past couple days with a lot lower chances.

That the way weather go.

[DoctorMu]

I expected the radar to be a lot more active today. We had more rain around the past couple days with a lot lower chances.

Mañana should be more active.

Today: Another brief 4 pm shower, then donut hole. High of 90°F. Welcome to Brazos Co., Florida!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Best Summer Ever!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Surprise .8 inches this evening. Thank goodness I got the front acre done or it would be a forest when we get back in town on Monday.

[Cpv17]

I expected the radar to be a lot more active today. We had more rain around the past couple days with a lot lower chances.

Mañana should be more active.

Today: Another brief 4 pm shower, then donut hole. High of 90°F. Welcome to Brazos Co., Florida!

I’m not so sure about that. We’ll see though but I have my doubts about tomorrow.

[DoctorMu]

40% chance today in CLL and higher in HOU. Let's roll the dice on the seabreeze!


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
335 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tomorrow/Saturday Night]...

KHGX radar has been fairly quiet so far this morning, but like it
has been these last few mornings, will be expecting streamer-type
activity to begin developing the next few hours. Coverage will be
increasing through this afternoon (along with intensity) with day
time heating peaking and interactions with the seabreeze/outflows.
Will keep POPs on the high side through this afternoon (50%-70%).
And like it has been of late, the primary hazards with the storms
include gusty winds and brief heavy downpours. Highs are forecast
to be in the lower 90s this afternoon across SE TX.

This activity will be decreasing by this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be similar,
ranging from the lower to mid 70s inland...to the lower 80s along
the beaches/coastline.

Per trends from the global models (ECMWF moreso than GFS), we may
see some slightly drier air move into the western half of the CWA
tomorrow. Should they verify, progged PWs of 1.4-1.6 inches could
have an impact on coverage of showers/thunderstorms by the after-
noon tomorrow. But that being said, will likely keep with chance/
good chance POPs given the pattern of late. 41

&&


&&

.LONG TERM...[Sunday through Friday]

A deep long wave trough over the Ohio Valley will extend into
extreme East Texas on Sunday. PW values remain around 2.00 inches
so daytime heating coupled with the slightly lower 500 mb heights
should yield scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. By
Monday, a strong upper ridge over the Great basin will expand with
a deep northerly flow developing between the ridge and the trough
over the Ohio valley. A strong short wave will drop south toward
Texas on Monday and this feature will help to carve out the trough
leaving a significant weakness across the eastern half of Texas.
The weakness aloft again combined with high PW air, daytime
heating and some weak jet dynamics should provide the area with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

The upper high over the Great basin retrogrades to the W-SW and
this will allow the weakness over Texas to also drift W-SW. This
will allow for higher rain chances for Tuesday and Wednesday. PW
values remain near or exceeding 2.00 inches and upper level winds
show a splitting jet structure. Will continue with the likely PoPs
already in the weather grids for Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday
looks a bit drier as the upper level weakness fills and shifts
west and weak upper level riding tries to develop over the western
Gulf of Mexico. Moisture trapped beneath the ridge should allow
for scattered mainly afternoon showers with a little bit of
heating. Upper level riding will expand over Texas next weekend
with drier and warmer conditions expected.

MaxT values are expected to be near or below climo through the
middle part of next week due to clouds and periods of
precipitation. Overnight low temperatures will remain warm due to
some patchy nocturnal clouds and weak onshore winds. 43

[Cpv17]

40% chance today in CLL and higher in HOU. Let's roll the dice on the seabreeze!


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
335 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tomorrow/Saturday Night]...

KHGX radar has been fairly quiet so far this morning, but like it
has been these last few mornings, will be expecting streamer-type
activity to begin developing the next few hours. Coverage will be
increasing through this afternoon (along with intensity) with day
time heating peaking and interactions with the seabreeze/outflows.
Will keep POPs on the high side through this afternoon (50%-70%).
And like it has been of late, the primary hazards with the storms
include gusty winds and brief heavy downpours. Highs are forecast
to be in the lower 90s this afternoon across SE TX.

This activity will be decreasing by this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be similar,
ranging from the lower to mid 70s inland...to the lower 80s along
the beaches/coastline.

Per trends from the global models (ECMWF moreso than GFS), we may
see some slightly drier air move into the western half of the CWA
tomorrow. Should they verify, progged PWs of 1.4-1.6 inches could
have an impact on coverage of showers/thunderstorms by the after-
noon tomorrow. But that being said, will likely keep with chance/
good chance POPs given the pattern of late. 41

&&


&&

.LONG TERM...[Sunday through Friday]

A deep long wave trough over the Ohio Valley will extend into
extreme East Texas on Sunday. PW values remain around 2.00 inches
so daytime heating coupled with the slightly lower 500 mb heights
should yield scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. By
Monday, a strong upper ridge over the Great basin will expand with
a deep northerly flow developing between the ridge and the trough
over the Ohio valley. A strong short wave will drop south toward
Texas on Monday and this feature will help to carve out the trough
leaving a significant weakness across the eastern half of Texas.
The weakness aloft again combined with high PW air, daytime
heating and some weak jet dynamics should provide the area with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

The upper high over the Great basin retrogrades to the W-SW and
this will allow the weakness over Texas to also drift W-SW. This
will allow for higher rain chances for Tuesday and Wednesday. PW
values remain near or exceeding 2.00 inches and upper level winds
show a splitting jet structure. Will continue with the likely PoPs
already in the weather grids for Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday
looks a bit drier as the upper level weakness fills and shifts
west and weak upper level riding tries to develop over the western
Gulf of Mexico. Moisture trapped beneath the ridge should allow
for scattered mainly afternoon showers with a little bit of
heating. Upper level riding will expand over Texas next weekend
with drier and warmer conditions expected.

MaxT values are expected to be near or below climo through the
middle part of next week due to clouds and periods of
precipitation. Overnight low temperatures will remain warm due to
some patchy nocturnal clouds and weak onshore winds. 43

Idk. I think pops are way too high today. I’d put them at 30 to 40% for all of southeast TX at the very most.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 we havent reached peak day time heating yet, those higher POP chances mainly play out after about 1-2 pm when convective temps are at their max for the sea breeze to really kick in

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 we havent reached peak day time heating yet, those higher POP chances mainly play out after about 1-2 pm when convective temps are at their max for the sea breeze to really kick in

Yeah I know the greatest time is from about 12 to 8pm but I just think it’ll be some isolated to widely scattered storms at best. I’m not seeing anything on the guidance that leads me to believe otherwise. Best chance will be north of Highway 90 and east of Highway 6.

[DoctorMu]

Sea breeze is kicking up already.

A tetrahedron from Beaumont to Houston then along 59 to Ganado to Brenham to Bryan to Lufkin has the best chance of scattered showers today...

[Rip76]

May be fairly tame today with all the cloud cover.

[Stratton20]

This weather pattern is boring , *yawn* nothing worth exciting getting over in the models

[TexasBreeze]

Idk. I think pops are way too high today. I’d put them at 30 to 40% for all of southeast TX at the very most.

Looks like you are right on target to me!

[unome]

trying to look on the bright side, the rain does wash the particulates out of the air

https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/smoke/#

[DoctorMu]

Another day, another brief shower.

Tuesday and Wednesday (60-70%) still are most likely yield significant rain. Tomorrow is dry, but 30% chance of scattered showers Sunday and Monday.

Boring = Death Ridge remains west of SETX until at least July 28. I'll take it!

[Stratton20]

It appears as though around the 25th or so, a more favorable phase of the MJO will be working its way into the western caribbean and gulf of mexico, we will see if we have anything of interest to watch around that time period

[DoctorMu]

Getting close to 2 pm in mid summer on a Saturday, and we're still in the 80s. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy our Fake Summer.