Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:34 pm
Where is wxman57 I have not seen any posts by him. I look forward to his opinion. 
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Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic
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Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:36 pm
Wxman57 is a very busy person with Invest 96L and the potential tropical cyclone development. I am sure he will post when he can.
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:39 pm
Wxman57 has posting every once in awhile on Storm2k.
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:57 pm
No doubt if we begin to see a Texas threat, wxman57 will offer input. Remember how much he offered analysis during Ike?...
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:27 pm
I have nothing to add, so I'm usually quiet. But, I am following along. I wanted to say thank you to everyone here for doing what y'all do. 
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:28 pm
When is the next update? thanks for keeping us all informed
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:38 pm
Wow. In the last past few hours, a nice spin has really been developing between the Yucatan and Cuba. I think Debby might be here as early as tomorrow the way it's looking.
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:55 pm
The next update is at 1 am and again at 7 am ~ however once Debby has been declared updates will be at 2 am, 8am, 2pm, and 8 pm.Karen wrote:When is the next update? thanks for keeping us all informed
P.S. someone please correct me if I am wrong. Thank you!
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:57 pm
Satellite wind data shows small closed circulation northwest of Yucatan.
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:17 pm
Hey guys, Looks like we'll have something to watch this weekend. Very interesting.
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:34 pm
Exciting weekend ahead and tomorrow will be a big day. Probably can put a name to this ugly face out there in the GOM. This forum should be poppin' come monday.
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:39 pm
Baseballdude2915 wrote:Exciting weekend ahead and tomorrow will be a big day. Probably can put a name to this ugly face out there in the GOM. This forum should be poppin' come monday.
If this system can get its act together tonight, like it has been doing the past few hours this evening, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Debby by this time tomorrow night. If that's the case, this board should be popping starting early tomorrow afternoon, then throughout the evening as, hopefully, those Hurricane Hunters can get out there and investigate it a little bit more.
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:43 pm
i think the LP is further north. 90 degree angle alabama and florida tip(south florida)( no coordinates needed)
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 10:05 pm
00Z BAMS and 18Z GFDL and HWRF agree with CMC/EURO/UKMET/NOGAPS...GFS now the lone outlier still to FL.
Threat is for sure increasing for the western Gulf as we are starting to see decent model consensus today. NHC forecast track will favor the western Gulf when the time comes.
Threat is for sure increasing for the western Gulf as we are starting to see decent model consensus today. NHC forecast track will favor the western Gulf when the time comes.
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 10:26 pm
It appears the GFS is the outlier now. Will be quite interesting in an hour or two to see how the 0z operational run looks and if it jumps on the "westward, ho" bandwagon.
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 10:31 pm
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Belmer wrote:Satellite wind data shows small closed circulation northwest of Yucatan.
Intent staring at satellite the obvious rotation, I assume the MLC, is well ESE of the surface center, about 22ºN & 86.5ºW
New NAM is just far enough South its pretty dry locally, I guess a week of near 100ºF days and almost daily watering beats a rush to buy fresh batteries, top of the cars gas tanks and load up on steaks I can BBQ. And the windows boarding. Although, while a hassle at the time, my wife and kids at her brothers in Austin, BBQ steaks in my driveway, reading bad paperback fiction until fairly early darkness (not a problem in June...), and AC and showers at the Galleria thanks to underground power, almost nostalgic. Did miss USC/OSU game, and Cowboys beating the Eagles.
Reading the Joe Bastardi tweets, he favors GFS, least opinion on Canadian, as he thinks its a binary split, either gets the East Coast trough and Northeast, or gets under ridge and moves WSW towards the border. He favors GFS because of his pattern ideas, hesistant however to reject Euro out of hand.
Anyway, with poor alignment of surface center and apparent cloud rotation center, and thus unpredictable location and time of actual development, and therefore uncertain data for models to digest, I'd say TPC/NHC/NWS on the Euro bandwagon, while very possibly correct, also possibly premature and possibly wrong. But they are paid to put out the best forecast possible, and as an amateur, I'm glad I don't have to make this call.
IMO, the Nam consolidates this thing to much. Even if it does go as far south as Northeastern Mexico (should the west gulf threat verify), I would think it would throw moisture up along the entire gulf coast. Perhaps even tap into all the moisture left behind in the Eastern Gulf and Carribean, 12z ECMWF hints at this.
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 10:45 pm
Given the size of the system per satellite and the earlier references we have seen to this being a "slop-gyre," I think a very moist, messy system to the north and east of the center is quite likely.
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 10:48 pm
Definitely, kind of reminds of of Erin of 2007. Made Landfall in Corpus but was very "East-Side Dominant" and we had a few good feederbands set up right over Houston. This storm actually appears to be quite a bit larger than Erin from the get go as well.
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:15 pm
I am thinking more like Tropical Storm Frances in 1998. Large storm that dumped heavy rain over a large area. Frances was much larger than Erin in 2007.weatherguy425 wrote:Definitely, kind of reminds of of Erin of 2007. Made Landfall in Corpus but was very "East-Side Dominant" and we had a few good feederbands set up right over Houston. This storm actually appears to be quite a bit larger than Erin from the get go as well.
Re: Ready For Debby?? Invest 96L
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:44 pm
Doesn't make it right either.Ed Mahmoud wrote:GFS is still Florida, and especially since the LLC and MLC are not aligned and the models aren't initialized with absolutely correct and certain data, just because GFS is an outlier, doesn't mean its wrong.
GFS just doesn't match up with reality too well for me. I mean the trough pulls out but the gfs continues to show the storm heading NE. Also every model not jsut the gfs continues to advertise the system forming way to fast. With shear so strong that is not happening anytime soon. Lets see what the other models say tonight. It will be a close call either way. Hopefully we can get recon tomm.