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Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:53 pm
by tireman4
wxman57 wrote:Note: Houston/Galveston radar just went down. A technician is troubleshooting the problem. Great timing...
Lovely. Is the Euro upgrade finished?
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:56 pm
by wxman57
Here's the HRRR forecast through 5am tomorrow. That 9-10" band goes right through SW Houston and downtown:
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:59 pm
by tireman4
That, Wxman 57, could stop everything in Houston. Please be careful folks. This is just a heads up.
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:22 pm
by ticka1
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:23 pm
by Cromagnum
Got a legend to go with that HRRR map? Wasn't sure what the color scale was relative to everything.
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:26 pm
by davidiowx
Cromagnum wrote:Got a legend to go with that HRRR map? Wasn't sure what the color scale was relative to everything.
Right click on the image and open it in a new tab, the legend will appear
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:43 pm
by unome
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:46 pm
by houstonia
NWSHouston @NWSHouston
At 430 Coast Guard VTS reported 40kt wind gusts between Morgan's Point and Redfish in GLS Bay. Limited visby near Ship Channel/ICW. #houwx
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:50 pm
by Andrew
Models have been slower and slower with the progression of the front/surface low tonight so we could see more impacts into tomorrow morning. We will see if that holds up tonight. The key with this system is somewhere someone is going to get a lot of rain but others might not get nearly as much. Hopefully the hrrr is incorrect or rush hour tomorrow will be nearly impossible.
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 5:31 pm
by wxman57
Keep in mind that predicting exactly where training echoes (and flooding) will occur is very difficult. Each model is a little different as far as the max rainfall for our area tonight/tomorrow. I may just stay home and work from here in the morning. I'm not heading out if streets are flooding.
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 6:04 pm
by Ptarmigan
If that forecast model held up, that would be a huge problem.
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 6:05 pm
by Ptarmigan
jasons wrote:Yeah, been watching that one.
Also, it's 90F in Cotulla...
That makes things worse.
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 6:49 pm
by Katdaddy
The first mesoscale convective system moved across Central, N and E TX earlier today skirting N portions of SE TX. Numerous showers and thunderstorms streamed across the Middle and Upper TX Coast as well as most of SE TX without severe weather thankfully but we still have a significant threat after midnight and through Wednesday morning with a severe weather and flooding threat. The SPC continues the enhanced risk across S, S Central, and SE TX. The evening's satellite and radar shows the next storm complex developing along the Rio Grande Valley which will gradually push across the southern half of TX and the coastal waters. Remain weather aware and do not drive through high water tomorrow morning should the Houston-Galveston area take the brunt of the heaviest rains.
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 7:07 pm
by houstonia
Am I right in seeing that the SPC has moved the enhanced portion south of Houston - more south than it previously was?
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 7:17 pm
by srainhoutx
Enhanced severe threat remains primarily across areas West of I-45 at this time. The SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to our SW until 2:00 AM CST.
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 7:29 pm
by Ounce
houstonia wrote:Am I right in seeing that the SPC has moved the enhanced portion south of Houston - more south than it previously was?
It's been expanded a bit more to the north and doesn't go to the Rio Grande, since the 5:18 version on page 7. Otherwise, it's just about identical for the Houston area. The Slight area, however, is no longer in Oklahoma.
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 8:00 pm
by Texaspirate11
So far so good...knock wood.....
I did ask as to whether most of this would stay North and West of us...
In any event, hope everyone stays safe...
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 8:26 pm
by Andrew
Later we go into the night stronger the LLJ will get, so wherever storms do develop expect the change for strong winds and even a tornado or two.
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 9:05 pm
by ticka1
what does LLJ mean?
Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 9:11 pm
by davidiowx
ticka1 wrote:what does LLJ mean?
Lower Level Jet stream