December 2016- End Of Year Forecast

[Andrew]

A quick update regarding the Arctic air headed our way next week. The GFS suggests the freezing line will extend along the I-10 Corridor next Thursday night/early Friday morning with a secondary surge of Arctic air arriving one week from tomorrow with another freeze potential.

Biggest issue will be high level clouds that could be positioned over the region. Looks like we could have have a westerly/southwesterly flow in the upper levels allowing for a pesky cloud deck to remain.

[srainhoutx]

A quick update regarding the Arctic air headed our way next week. The GFS suggests the freezing line will extend along the I-10 Corridor next Thursday night/early Friday morning with a secondary surge of Arctic air arriving one week from tomorrow with another freeze potential.

Biggest issue will be high level clouds that could be positioned over the region. Looks like we could have have a westerly/southwesterly flow in the upper levels allowing for a pesky cloud deck to remain.

That is certainly a possibility particularly with a shortwave diving ESE across the Great Basin and The Southern Rockies as seen very well with the 12Z ECMWF. I would not be surprised to see cyclogenesis across NE New Mexico/Eastern Colorado eventually wrapping up into a winter storm next Saturday into Sunday across portions of the Central and Southern Plains heading toward the Mid Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes.

[Rip76]

Texas City has been getting hammered.

[srainhoutx]

Texas City has been getting hammered.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
113 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CST.

* UNTIL 400 PM CST.

* AT 105 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. STORM TOTALS OF UP TO 9 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED
AT THE TEXAS CITY AND THE LA MARQUE PUMPING STATIONS. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT REPORTED HIGH WATER ON ROADWAYS IN BOTH TEXAS CITY AND
LA MARQUE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
TEXAS CITY...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...HITCHCOCK AND BAYOU VISTA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

[srainhoutx]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 1m1 minute ago
Looking past this Arctic blast ... ECMWF 12z reloads for another one. Cold begets cold. Snow cover + calendar makes it easier

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0783
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 031930Z - 040000Z

SUMMARY...TRAINING CORES/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS SW LA MAY LEAD
TO FLOODING CONCERNS THOUGH BULK OF HVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE
OFFSHORE.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT GOES-E VISIBLE, RADAR MOSAIC AND SFC OBS
DENOTES COLD POOL FROM CONVECTION THAT DUMPED 3-7" ALONG COASTAL
TX HAS KICKED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. THIS IS COINCIDENT
WITH TRAILING SW TO NE ORIENTED MID-LEVEL TROF OF THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE ACROSS S AR FURTHER REDUCING BEST UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT/SUPPORT. STILL STRONG HEIGHT FALLS FROM DEEPER UPSTREAM
TROF ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED STRONG WESTERN GULF SURFACE FLOW AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LEADING TO SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE NEAR COAST OF TX AT THIS
TIME...LEADING TO A BROADER WEDGE OF SHALLOWER MORE BROKEN
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE SOME
SHORT BURST RAIN TOTALS UP TO 1" THAT MAY HELP COMPOUND ONGOING
FLOODING BUT LIKELY WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASES
OR THREATS OVER SE TX THAT ARE NOT ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING.

RECENT FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR, ESRL EXP HRRR AND 12Z ARW HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING WELL AND SUPPORT THIS TREND. STILL AS THE OUTFLOW
ENHANCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL FOCUS DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH/SSW OF SABINE PASS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONT. DEEPER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT TRAINING OF DEEPER CORES WITH RATES OF UP TO 1.5"/HR TO
AFFECT DOWNSTREAM SW LA WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 2-3" REMAINING
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

[Texaspirate11]

11 inches of rain with 11 hours in Texas City so far.

[Cromagnum]

The bullseye seems about 30-40 miles off. I know Houston and Pearland were supposed to get hammered, but the south side has got maybe an inch of rain so far.

[mckinne63]

We had some rain and some thunder overnight in Stafford. But thus far today it's just been cool, damp and some drizzle here and there.

All those that are getting hammered, stay safe!

[mckinne63]

The bullseye seems about 30-40 miles off. I know Houston and Pearland were supposed to get hammered, but the south side has got maybe an inch of rain so far.

My husband guesstimated about an inch for us based on the level of the water in the pool this morning.

[srainhoutx]

Some locations near College Station received a bit over 5 inches overnight with some locations in Southern Montgomery and NW Harris Counties above 4 inches. Another round of showers and storms are developing to our West and SW with another disturbance.

Looking ahead, the ECMWF EPS suggests a cross Polar flow is established in the longer range. Chances are increasing that December will continue to be chilly.

[djmike]

Continue to get hammered at this hour here in Beaumont. Areas over 6" so far and atill coming down hard. High water rescues being madeall around. Id post some pics but have no clue how to on here. The heavy training effect had stayed over Galveston, towards winnie and straight thru Beaumont all day. Mets said this line of storms would continue moving eastward but over the last hour it looks to be shifting back westward. Continueiing to put me, here in Beaumont under the bullseye for most of lastnight and today! Mets also saying we could now be seeing over a foot of rain in my area when all of this is said Nd done. Stay safe everyone!

[djmike]

Just dumped 5.75" from my gauge. Still raining moderately and plenty more to come here in Beaumont.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon updated Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlook for tomorrow shifts the Moderate Risk back into the Metro Houston Area.

[Ounce]

0.47" at Katy Freeway and Chimney Rock.

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CST.

* AT 350 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...SOUTHERN FRIENDSWOOD...ALVIN...
DICKINSON...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...SOUTHERN SEABROOK...WEBSTER...
HITCHCOCK...KEMAH...NASSAU BAY...CLEAR LAKE SHORES...HILLCREST...
LIVERPOOL...BACLIFF...SAN LEON...KEMAH BOARDWALK AND CHOCOLATE
BAYOU.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

[Texaspirate11]

RED CROSS HAS OPENED A SHELTER IN LEAGUE CITY:
BAY HARBOUR UNITED METHODIST
3459 DEKE SLAYTON HWAY FM 518E
LEAGUE CITY, TEXAS
I am hoping its accessible....

[srainhoutx]

Saturday evening briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall and flood event underway over TX.

Galveston has recorded 6.70 inches of rainfall today making it the wettest December day ever in the history of the city. Radar data and rain gages in Texas City indicate that has much as 9-10 inches of rain has fallen over Texas City and La Marque resulting in significant street flooding. This excessive rainfall has been focused along the nearly stationary coastal trough which has been waffling north and south along the coast today. Inland rainfall totals of 2-4 inches have occurred NW of a line from Sealy to Lake Livingston. So far the area from northern Liberty County to Downtown Houston to Sugar Land has seen the least rainfall.

Next strong disturbance will eject out of the deep upper level trough currently over N MX and across TX tonight into Sunday. This will bring the next round of sustained rainfall back across much of the region. Concern remains as to where any cell training and banding develops as this is where the higher totals will be founds…as seen today in Galveston County.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches on top of what has already fallen is possible and with grounds now saturated run-off into area watersheds will be quicker resulting in rises. Feel that the target location will again be those hard hit coastal locations where the coastal trough continues to feed the more organized convection.

After the overnight and morning disturbance the main upper trough will sweep across the area Sunday night into Monday with another round of rainfall. This may end up being more of a coastal event than anything during this period.

Tides:

Still running high on the tides with stiff ENE winds piling the water along with wave run-up. Hit 3.5-3.7 ft this morning which resulted in some flooding along the Gulf beaches and in Clear Lake. May get back close to those levels again tonight and these high tides along with the heaviest rainfall being right on the coast is preventing run-off from draining quickly on Galveston Island. Tides will remain up into Sunday and even Monday.

Arctic Air:

Little time has been spent on this…but it deserve a mention as a very cold air mass looks to plunge toward the state by the middle of next week. Could be looking at widespread freezing conditions by Friday morning.

[DoctorMu]

12032016 Ryan Maue Cyxko71UsAABDn_.jpg

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 1m1 minute ago
Looking past this Arctic blast ... ECMWF 12z reloads for another one. Cold begets cold. Snow cover + calendar makes it easier

Huge motherlode to mine in Siberia this year.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff on late Saturday evening:

11 inches of rain falls in Texas City today and 7.50 inches in Galveston and this is resulting in widespread and extensive flooding. The previous wettest December day for the City of Galveston was 6.3 inches on 12-17-1995 and this record has been shattered the daily record for 12-3 was 2.64 inches in 1965 and this record has been destroyed.

Excessive short term rainfall rates overwhelmed the pumping facilities in Texas City which is levee protected from hurricane storm surge and requires rainfall to be pumped out of the city. This result has been widespread deep inundation in parts of the City…in addition portions of Galveston Island, Tiki Island, and La Marque are all experiencing significant flooding.

Texas City is working with local and state officials to remove as much water as fast as possible and all pump stations are currently operating at 100% capacity and will be manned all night.

A Red Cross shelter has been set up in League City at Bay Harbour UMC for residents that area currently displaced or unable to reach their homes.

Coastal trough has shifted offshore and excessive coastal rains have ended…however this feature will begin to back northward in response to another disturbance approaching the area from SW TX and heavy rains may once again develop over areas already hard hit. Additionally, widespread light to moderate rainfall with bands of heavy rain will develop across inland sections of SE TX after midnight.