General Tropical Discussion Thread

[srainhoutx]

Perhaps we should be watching the E Caribbean. 18Z GFS spins up a Hurricane from that disturbance just N of South America as it nears the SW Caribbean and shoots it into the GOM...

[Scott747]

Perhaps we should be watching the E Caribbean. 18Z GFS spins up a Hurricane from that disturbance just N of South America as it nears the SW Caribbean and shoots it into the GOM...

Careful that uses a model to give us a hint at potential area to look for. Can't do that. All in good fun

CuMet mentioned this area earlier today but seemed a bit like the one I favored late last week that eventually tracked into C America.

Need to gain some lat.

[srainhoutx]

Ironic that the same weakness that is the talk of the weather boards concerning TD 4 could be what helps lift this disturbance N. The Western Caribbean certainly has a history of cyclogenesis.

[srainhoutx]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR...LOCATED ABOUT 1270 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Scott747]

Didn't take the 0z GFS long to drop it like a bad habit. It does try and move some of the energy towards the SW Gulf and towards the lower Texas coast and northern Mexico in traditional new GFS fashion.

[biggerbyte]

Wouldn't that be the Shiz??? TD4 falls apart and this one ends up being the one to remember..

[ticka1]

As the models turn.......

[Katdaddy]

From this mornings Hou-Gal AFD:

AS
FOR THE LONG-RANGE FCST WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO VACILLATE ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE GULF.

[srainhoutx]

I would not be surprised to see this tagged as an invest later today.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS FROM 20N61W ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 9N65W MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE WAS OBSERVED IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 63W-69W INCLUDING BONAIRE AND
CURACAO ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND VIRGIN ISLANDS
FROM SAINT LUCIA TO JUST E OF PUERTO RICO.

[ticka1]

Taking the wait to see if before I believe it attitude. Where is Fall?

[srainhoutx]

GFDL and HWRF caught a bit of this disturbance on the runs for Colin...

[srainhoutx]

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS OF VENEZUELA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO
BE SLOW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[desiredwxgd]

Interesting 7 day

[srainhoutx]

The Central Caribbean certainly has convection tonight.

[srainhoutx]

ABNT20 KNHC 042338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED BUT THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SOME DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE WAVE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Ptarmigan]

ABNT20 KNHC 042338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED BUT THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SOME DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE WAVE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Looks like Colin could be the "Come Back Kid".

[srainhoutx]

92L looks pathetic, and CIMMS low level vorticity, it will move into Central America before doing much.

Hints on the Euro, GFS and Canadian of a piece of a non-tropical trough pinching off and retrograding into the Gulf, although none are super exciting looking, and Euro surface reflection is very weak and moves back inland in Louisiana. Less impressive than yesterday's 0Z or 12Z runs.

But I don't see anything from the deep tropics for the Gulf in at least a week, probably longer. So weak systems of non-tropical origin, its whats for dinner.

HPC has mentioned the feature...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
353 AM EDT THU AUG 05 2010

VALID 12Z MON AUG 09 2010 - 12Z THU AUG 12 2010


USED THE 12Z/04 ECENS MEAN FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE 00Z/05 GFS CLUSTERS WELL WITH
THE OLD ECENS MEAN...AND THE 00Z/05 ECMWF CLUSTERS WELL WITH THE
CURRENT GEFS MEAN...SO RELIED ON THE MORE ROBUST...BETTER
PERFORMING EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECENS MEAN CAMP...WHICH INCLUDES THE
GEM GLOBAL...AND THE ECMWF/GEFS MEAN CAMP IS THE LATITUDE OF THE
POLAR FRONT DAYS 6 AND 7 OVER THE EAST. THE GFS/ECENS MEAN/GEM
GLOBAL ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH FITS THE
AMPLIFICATION ANTICIPATED DURING THE SHORT RANGE. IT IS ALSO
HARMONIOUS WITH THE TENDENCY FOR TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THE LOW DEPICTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE MANUAL PROGS IS
INTENDED TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD BREAKING OFF AND DRIFTING
WESTWARD...AND NOT NECESSARILY A TROPICAL FEATURE.

[srainhoutx]

Models (Euro, GFS and UKMET) are sniffing development from a wave in the Eastern Atlantic. My hunch is this will be another Fish Storm. That said, a more favorable MJO pulse appears headed toward the Atlantic Basin in about a week or so as we start the climb toward peak season.

[srainhoutx]

Code Yellow...Eastern Atlantic...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

The EC, GFS and Canadian models continue to advertise some energy left behind from the front boundary/trough to our East for next week in the Eastern GOM. There has been some mention from the HPC of this feature, but we just do not know if it becomes a tropical trouble maker or not. Time will tell.

New Orleans...snip...

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING DAYTIME UNTIL ABOUT
MON. THEN TEMPS WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. BY MIDWEEK...AN
EASTERLY WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF...MAINTAINING THE
PATTERN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.