Wx Infinity Forums

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:57 am

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:40 am Meteorological Fall!

Go to Hell Summer, go straight to your worthless corner of the calendar!

This summer wasn’t that bad compared to most.

I know several people whose homes flooded with no heat or power last winter. Every season has its pros and cons. Personally I’m hoping this summer season hangs on a bit longer so my pool will heat up. Can’t heat it for two weeks after we fill it.

I noticed the NWS noted the beginning of the meteorological fall in their AFD. I wish the local TV mets would also educate the public.

I wish they would too. My 9 and 6 year olds know just about all I know about Meteorology.

Yes, the Summer wasn't horrible, I agree. With that said, anything over 75 is annoying to me. Anything over 90 sucks. I prefer to work out and run outside, but I won't do it in the Summer. I go indoors to the gym. During our deep freeze, I went for a 5 mile run in 16 degree weather with my snow boots. I loved it!

This is my blue print for Summer ( we are in a Sub Tropical environment, so it will not happen). 95 degrees for a high and 70 for a low with dewpoints in the upper 50s. That would work just fine, thank you very much.

12z runs coming in a bit more bullish on developing 91L, 12z CMC is really aggressive

Gfs ensembles all over it

LOL @ hanging your hat on the Canadian. Not seeing anything favorable like a robust Kelvin Wave or favorable MJO at this time as the more favorable pattern has shifted well East. I expect the tropics will be rather quiet other than Larry putting on a show out in the Atlantic. Perhaps conditions improve for tropical development late in the month and going into October. Climatology suggests time is quickly transitioning away for NW Gulf Coast threats.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:21 pm 12z runs coming in a bit more bullish on developing 91L, 12z CMC is really aggressive

If the CMC could, it would send a Cat 5 into South Dakota in January.
The CMC is garbage.

Gfs ensembles heated up this run, icon also

srainhoutx what I never said I was buying into the CMC run I just simply showed what the model was thinking...

The CMC has actually improved the past couple years.

The majority of the model runs have "something" in the west/northwest gulf. It's at least something to watch.

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:18 pm The majority of the model runs have "something" in the west/northwest gulf. It's at least something to watch.

Appears to be remaining vorticity from (now Invest 91-L) in the Caribbean? Possibly some crossover EPAC energy too. Kind of an interesting setup if it comes to pass.

1. Recent satellite wind data indicates the area of low pressure
located in the southwestern Caribbean Sea has a well-defined
circulation. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized and displaced north of the center. Some slow
development of this system remains possible over the next day or two
if it remains over open water while moving west-northwestward or
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph along the coast of Central America. By
early next week, the system will have another opportunity for
gradual development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless
of development, heavy rains are possible across portions of Central
America and the Yucatan Peninsula by late this week into the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Thundering and Raining at Gulfgate in Houston.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 011707
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1207 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

.AVIATION...
Scattered shra/tstms along the coast at the current time. Look for
additional development further inland as temps climb. Nothing
terribly organized is expected, but fcst soundings show an
inverted-v profile so there will probably be some gusty winds in
the strongest cells. Activity should dissipate this evening with
the loss of heating. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are
anticipated into the overnight hours. Had some shallow patchy fog
across parts of the area this morning. SREF data shows the
potential for some again late tonight. Otherwise, typical
summertime pattern again Thurs. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 96 75 96 / 30 20 20 0 20
Houston (IAH) 97 78 95 77 95 / 40 20 40 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 92 82 91 / 40 30 30 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

This is just for funzies. Nothing to worry about. Just look at the yellow colors..so pretty...Just for informational purposes only. Edit: I did not write those numbers and letters on there. Again, this is HIGH speculation on anyone's part.

tireman4 kinda funny how it literally looks like the bermuda triangle in this run

tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:22 pm This is just for funzies. Nothing to worry about. Just look at the yellow colors..so pretty...Just for informational purposes only. Edit: I did not write those numbers and letters on there. Again, this is HIGH speculation on anyone's part.

Well dang. I better not put up my fall decorations outdoors until that possibility of a hurricane in SETX is over.

sambucol wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:52 pm

tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:22 pm This is just for funzies. Nothing to worry about. Just look at the yellow colors..so pretty...Just for informational purposes only. Edit: I did not write those numbers and letters on there. Again, this is HIGH speculation on anyone's part.

Well dang. I better not put up my fall decorations outdoors until that possibility of a hurricane in SETX is over.

To be honest, one run. Could totally be LaLa Land...just for funzies..

The 12Z GFS does show some energy try to lift north from the BOC with a little more support from the ensembles but still seems like a low probability at this time. From a synoptical standpoint, the MJO looks less favorable and most models indicate any ITCZ action will likely stay further south and across the Eastern Pacific. Still, something to monitor as we are near the peak of the hurricane season.

Andrew wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:07 pm The 12Z GFS does show some energy try to lift north from the BOC with a little more support from the ensembles but still seems like a low probability at this time. From a synoptical standpoint, the MJO looks less favorable and most models indicate any ITCZ action will likely stay further south and across the Eastern Pacific. Still, something to monitor as we are near the peak of the hurricane season.

It may just bring us an increase in moisture. That seems plausible.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:57 am

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:40 am Meteorological Fall!

Go to Hell Summer, go straight to your worthless corner of the calendar!

This summer wasn’t that bad compared to most.

I know several people whose homes flooded with no heat or power last winter. Every season has its pros and cons. Personally I’m hoping this summer season hangs on a bit longer so my pool will heat up. Can’t heat it for two weeks after we fill it.

I noticed the NWS noted the beginning of the meteorological fall in their AFD. I wish the local TV mets would also educate the public.

Summer's only gotten bad like...NOW. As we have to deal with a post-hurricane ridge. Really feeling for the foks in NOLA with the prolonged power outage. It looks like some power has been restored beginning last night.

The ridge continues to dominate through and peaking during the weekend. Maybe an unorganized depression around the 8-10th - on both GFS and Canadian, fwiw.

High index folks! Stay hydrated, in shade, and where cool or inside when and where you can!







Split decision on relief with Ensembles. GEPS - no, GEFS - yes

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:56 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:57 am

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:40 am Meteorological Fall!

Go to Hell Summer, go straight to your worthless corner of the calendar!

This summer wasn’t that bad compared to most.

I know several people whose homes flooded with no heat or power last winter. Every season has its pros and cons. Personally I’m hoping this summer season hangs on a bit longer so my pool will heat up. Can’t heat it for two weeks after we fill it.

I noticed the NWS noted the beginning of the meteorological fall in their AFD. I wish the local TV mets would also educate the public.

Summer's only gotten bad like...NOW. As we have to deal with a post-hurricane ridge. Really feeling for the foks in NOLA with the prolonged power outage. It looks like some power has been restored beginning last night.

The ridge continues to dominate through and peaking during the weekend. Maybe an unorganized depression around the 8-10th - on both GFS and Canadian, fwiw.

High index folks! Stay hydrated, in shade, and where cool or inside when and where you can!







Split decision on relief with Ensembles. GEPS - no, GEFS - yes

Pfft. With a 7 pm kickoff Saturday, it will be a 14 hour tailgate!

Bringing 5 industrial fans and drip drop IV packs to the tailgate Saturday, just in case.