May 2023
Makes since. That grey area with < 0.10 inch predicted is neatly over Brazoria County like normal.
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Stratton20
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- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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Youll get more than that, the GFS is by far the outlier and is clearly struggling, compare that with the EURO and CMC guidance which has been very consistent, the GFS has just not been great lately
Yeah. Go with the model that’s been consistent.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 4:10 pm Youll get more than that, the GFS is by far the outlier and is clearly struggling, compare that with the EURO and CMC guidance which has been very consistent, the GFS has just not been great lately
Just nasty out there this afternoon. 74°F DP. Very sweaty. At least there was a breeze.
Weather apps have 60% chance of rain over the next few days. NWS has 30%. Going with NWS.
Ensembles have 3-6+ inches of rain 7-10 days out...but these progs remain on the horizon (≥5 day forecast), although
Climo + El Niño = rain in mid May.
We'll see.
Ensembles have 3-6+ inches of rain 7-10 days out...but these progs remain on the horizon (≥5 day forecast), although
Climo + El Niño = rain in mid May.
We'll see.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sat May 06, 2023 9:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4332
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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DoctorMu seems like the NWS is buying the euro and cmc, rain chances go all the way up to 70% by next weekend
Besides climo and El Niño, I won't buy flooding level rains until we're closer to a concrete event.
HGX guidance is with me. It may be wetter. Definite maybe on *potentially* a lot of rain over the next week or so. There's still some ridging, pushing back against daily rains...it's a complicated forecast, but the chance of rain slowly increases into next weekend.
We'll see.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023
Such a beautiful day...there`s nothing like dewpoints around 80 in
the month of May. Taking a look at radar and sat pix, scattered
showers and storms are developing in the Hill Country that the vast
majority of guidance doesn`t seem to much of a have a handle on.
Could be in association with a weak disturbance embedded in the
southwesterlies aloft and daytime heating. General trajectory,
should they remain intact, would take them across our w/nw/n zones
this evening. Will be adding some POPs there in the early evening
there.
Further northwest, we`re starting to se some CU development across
ncntl TX. Anticipating that we`ll see a complex of showers and
thunderstorms begin developing there in the not too distant future
and track eastward across north Tx overnight. Unlike last night,
anticipate that the majority of this particular complex to remain
just north of the CWA...though our extreme northern counties might
see the tail end of some of the shra/tstms in the 9pm-3am timeframe.
Temps will continue to run above normal tonight with lows in the
lower to mid 70s. Llvl winds take on a slightly more se direction on
Sunday. This, and increased cloud cover, should knock high temps
down a few degrees from what we`ve experienced the past couple days
with the sw-s wind regime. Penciled in some 20-30% POPs across most
of the region with an increasingly messy sw flow aloft and embedded
impulses. May need to keep an eye out for any lingering outflow
boundaries that might sneak into northern parts of the area from
tonight`s storms that could serve as a focus/initiation for
later Sunday afternoon. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023
The hot and humid conditions continue into the long term period with
high temperatures on Monday topping out in the upper 80s/low 90s.
Southeasterly flow at the surface will steadily funnel in that warm
and humid air that we know and love all week long. Further up in the
atmosphere, we`ll still have ridging aloft in place through at least
midweek. Until then...I`m just gonna be straight up y`all...it`ll be
flat out miserable outside with dew points in the low to mid 70s and
PW values remaining near the 90th percentile (~1.65"). There`s a bit
of good news in all of this though! Temperatures are expected to
slightly decrease next week, so instead of the low 90s, our upper
end of the temperature spectrum will be the upper 80s. 850mb
temperatures decrease from the 19-21°C range to the 17-19°C range
(it ain`t much, but it`s honest work). Additionally, westerly to
southwesterly flow aloft will keep us in a fairly constant flow of
PVA. We`ll have lift, moisture, and instability in play, so daily
chances of showers/storms persists in the afternoons with daytime
heating giving an assist. It`s worth mentioning that WPC has the
Brazos Valley in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive
rainfall for Tuesday and all of Southeast Texas in a marginal risk
for Wednesday.
PoPs are a bit higher on Tuesday afternoon/evening due to an
embedded shortwave trough swinging through Southeast TX. Rinse and
repeat for late Wednesday as we get yet another embedded
shortwave trough swinging through. Past Wednesday, things get a
bit complicated to say the least. An upper level trough approaches
from the western CONUS and eventually evolves into a cutoff low
that drifts northward past the Four Corners region. While the
trough doesn`t necessarily get that close to Southeast TX, it does
place us firmly in southwesterly flow aloft. The complications
come with the progression/placement of this upper low (pick any
hour and all three global models have a different placement for
it) and another upper low that looks to develop out in West TX
late Friday.
The TX upper low and subsequent surface low would be the ones to
watch if this verifies. It`s a bit early to get caught up in
seeing if this is a perfect synoptic setup, but there is at least
potential for heavy rainfall next weekend with PW values surging
to 2.0"+ in response to warm sector inflow to the developing
surface low. 12Z deterministic model guidance for QPF totals for
next weekend conveys quite a bit of uncertainty, but there is
fairly good confidence that it`ll be rainy. As a result, I have
included likely PoPs for most of the weekend. The bright side of
this is that widespread rainfall should keep us relatively "cool"
in the 80s. Long story short, next weekend will be fairly wet.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023
Mostly VFR conditions currently across SE TX, but MVFR to possible
IFR cigs are expected to develop tonight into Sun morning. A few
SH/TS could again move into SE TX tonight and move into the
northern sites (CLL/UTS/CXO), will likely issue TEMPOs for these
if needed. Expect frequent lightning and VRB gusty winds in and
around TS. S-SE winds will be at little stronger tonight, around
8-12 KTS, and are to remain elevated during the day Sun with
gusts up to 25 KTS. Cigs are expected to lift and scatter out late
Sun morning or early afternoon, but some location could hold on
the BKN/OVC cigs until mid/late afternoon.
24
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023
Overall benign marine conditions with 3 to 5 foot seas and light to
occasionally moderate southeasterly flow prevailing through the end
of next week. There will be brief periods with winds approaching the
caution threshold during the overnight hours, especially tonight and
Sunday night. The fetch of southeasterly winds increases early next
week, so the risk of rip currents is expected to rise by midweek
along with building seas towards the end of the week. Daily chances
for showers and storms will persist into next week with chances
increasing towards the end of the week as moisture surges along the
coast and interacts with an upper level disturbance.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 88 72 90 / 30 30 20 30
Houston (IAH) 75 88 74 88 / 10 20 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 75 82 75 81 / 10 10 10 20
We'll see.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023
Such a beautiful day...there`s nothing like dewpoints around 80 in
the month of May. Taking a look at radar and sat pix, scattered
showers and storms are developing in the Hill Country that the vast
majority of guidance doesn`t seem to much of a have a handle on.
Could be in association with a weak disturbance embedded in the
southwesterlies aloft and daytime heating. General trajectory,
should they remain intact, would take them across our w/nw/n zones
this evening. Will be adding some POPs there in the early evening
there.
Further northwest, we`re starting to se some CU development across
ncntl TX. Anticipating that we`ll see a complex of showers and
thunderstorms begin developing there in the not too distant future
and track eastward across north Tx overnight. Unlike last night,
anticipate that the majority of this particular complex to remain
just north of the CWA...though our extreme northern counties might
see the tail end of some of the shra/tstms in the 9pm-3am timeframe.
Temps will continue to run above normal tonight with lows in the
lower to mid 70s. Llvl winds take on a slightly more se direction on
Sunday. This, and increased cloud cover, should knock high temps
down a few degrees from what we`ve experienced the past couple days
with the sw-s wind regime. Penciled in some 20-30% POPs across most
of the region with an increasingly messy sw flow aloft and embedded
impulses. May need to keep an eye out for any lingering outflow
boundaries that might sneak into northern parts of the area from
tonight`s storms that could serve as a focus/initiation for
later Sunday afternoon. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023
The hot and humid conditions continue into the long term period with
high temperatures on Monday topping out in the upper 80s/low 90s.
Southeasterly flow at the surface will steadily funnel in that warm
and humid air that we know and love all week long. Further up in the
atmosphere, we`ll still have ridging aloft in place through at least
midweek. Until then...I`m just gonna be straight up y`all...it`ll be
flat out miserable outside with dew points in the low to mid 70s and
PW values remaining near the 90th percentile (~1.65"). There`s a bit
of good news in all of this though! Temperatures are expected to
slightly decrease next week, so instead of the low 90s, our upper
end of the temperature spectrum will be the upper 80s. 850mb
temperatures decrease from the 19-21°C range to the 17-19°C range
(it ain`t much, but it`s honest work). Additionally, westerly to
southwesterly flow aloft will keep us in a fairly constant flow of
PVA. We`ll have lift, moisture, and instability in play, so daily
chances of showers/storms persists in the afternoons with daytime
heating giving an assist. It`s worth mentioning that WPC has the
Brazos Valley in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive
rainfall for Tuesday and all of Southeast Texas in a marginal risk
for Wednesday.
PoPs are a bit higher on Tuesday afternoon/evening due to an
embedded shortwave trough swinging through Southeast TX. Rinse and
repeat for late Wednesday as we get yet another embedded
shortwave trough swinging through. Past Wednesday, things get a
bit complicated to say the least. An upper level trough approaches
from the western CONUS and eventually evolves into a cutoff low
that drifts northward past the Four Corners region. While the
trough doesn`t necessarily get that close to Southeast TX, it does
place us firmly in southwesterly flow aloft. The complications
come with the progression/placement of this upper low (pick any
hour and all three global models have a different placement for
it) and another upper low that looks to develop out in West TX
late Friday.
The TX upper low and subsequent surface low would be the ones to
watch if this verifies. It`s a bit early to get caught up in
seeing if this is a perfect synoptic setup, but there is at least
potential for heavy rainfall next weekend with PW values surging
to 2.0"+ in response to warm sector inflow to the developing
surface low. 12Z deterministic model guidance for QPF totals for
next weekend conveys quite a bit of uncertainty, but there is
fairly good confidence that it`ll be rainy. As a result, I have
included likely PoPs for most of the weekend. The bright side of
this is that widespread rainfall should keep us relatively "cool"
in the 80s. Long story short, next weekend will be fairly wet.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023
Mostly VFR conditions currently across SE TX, but MVFR to possible
IFR cigs are expected to develop tonight into Sun morning. A few
SH/TS could again move into SE TX tonight and move into the
northern sites (CLL/UTS/CXO), will likely issue TEMPOs for these
if needed. Expect frequent lightning and VRB gusty winds in and
around TS. S-SE winds will be at little stronger tonight, around
8-12 KTS, and are to remain elevated during the day Sun with
gusts up to 25 KTS. Cigs are expected to lift and scatter out late
Sun morning or early afternoon, but some location could hold on
the BKN/OVC cigs until mid/late afternoon.
24
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023
Overall benign marine conditions with 3 to 5 foot seas and light to
occasionally moderate southeasterly flow prevailing through the end
of next week. There will be brief periods with winds approaching the
caution threshold during the overnight hours, especially tonight and
Sunday night. The fetch of southeasterly winds increases early next
week, so the risk of rip currents is expected to rise by midweek
along with building seas towards the end of the week. Daily chances
for showers and storms will persist into next week with chances
increasing towards the end of the week as moisture surges along the
coast and interacts with an upper level disturbance.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 88 72 90 / 30 30 20 30
Houston (IAH) 75 88 74 88 / 10 20 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 75 82 75 81 / 10 10 10 20
Wow we had .43” overnight and I slept right through it. I had no idea until I noticed the fence was wet.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4332
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
00z Euro is a total washout for se texas
widespread 5-8 inches with isolated 10+ inches in a location or two
widespread 5-8 inches with isolated 10+ inches in a location or two
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2359
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
I’ll take it. Hell, I’ll take any weather over yesterdays low 90s and humidity while watching a Baseball tourney all day.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 2:24 am 00z Euro is a total washout for se texas
widespread 5-8 inches with isolated 10+ inches in a location or two
Team #NeverSummer
Much stronger signal for rain on the 6z GFS/GEFS compared to prior runs. Confidence will increase dramatically if the GFS caves to the other guidance.
This is gorgeous weather today LoL. Finished the lawn as the rain started. Looks promising on radar for a slow steady rain all day. Love it
Pretty good rainmaker on the southwest side today. I didn't think anyone was calling for rain for at least 1-2 more days?
Nice little complex of showers and storms moving through.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4332
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
12z GFS and CMC
The GFS is finally caving into a wetter solution, starting to aline with the cmc and euro guidance, the CMC still suggests someone could see a foot or more of rain next week/ beyond
The GFS is finally caving into a wetter solution, starting to aline with the cmc and euro guidance, the CMC still suggests someone could see a foot or more of rain next week/ beyond
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Getting some light rain on this Sunday morning. I think I may boil some shrimp for dinner. It's that kind of weather.
My daughter used to wonder why I wanted clouds all summer, and as much rain as possible! hahaMontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 10:09 amI’ll take it. Hell, I’ll take any weather over yesterdays low 90s and humidity while watching a Baseball tourney all day.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 2:24 am 00z Euro is a total washout for se texas
widespread 5-8 inches with isolated 10+ inches in a location or two
Tuesday is beginning to look really interesting around here.