August 2023

[Stratton20]

Id rather live in Antarctica right now than in texas!

[tireman4]

Id rather live in Antarctica right now than in texas!

Boy, you would have hated 2011. Models were not a good as they are now. The models would have the high pressure ridge leaving and alas, it never did. The high pressure ridge literally ate a Tropical Storm ( Don) down in South Texas. I agree this Summer is bad.

[jasons2k]

Tropical Storm Don has got to be the worst joke ever played on Texas. Josh from iCyclone has a great writeup on TS Don.

It’s now been well over a month without a drop of rain here. Non-irrigated trees and shrubs are starting to die off. White flag raised.

[jasons2k]

Just checked my email and see Jeff sent this earlier this morning:

Heat advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect for the area.

Hot, dry, and breezy weather will be in place for this week with high pressure stacked over the state. Afternoon temperatures of 95 near the coast to mid 100’s inland with low temperatures in the upper 70’s to low 80’s…although coastal locations have been failing to fall much below 84-86 at night with Palacios only falling to 87 the last few days. The high pressure responsible for the ongoing heat and increasing drought conditions will remain parked over the state for the next 7-10 days with little to no change in the overall pattern or sensible weather.

College Station has recorded 29 straight days at or above 100 degrees with the last 7 straight days at or above 105 degrees.

BUSH IAH had recorded the last 8 straight days at or above 100.

Fire Weather:

High to very high fire danger conditions will be in place for all of this week with critically dry fuels loads. KBDI values continue to increase over the region with many areas in the 600-750 range indicating significant dryness and growing potential for wildfires. Unlike the last few weeks, wind speeds this week will be stronger especially in the afternoon hours and while humidity values will be above 20-30% for most locations, areas along and north of I-10 could fall below 30% for a few hours before the seabreeze pushes inland late in the afternoon. Fine and medium fuels and even some larger fuels have dried to the point where fire behavior is becoming increasingly aggressive. Over the last 7 days, fire starts have exhibited extreme behavior including fires this weekend in Hays and Johnson Counties as well as last week in San Jacinto, Newton, and Jasper Counties. Juniper, Cedar, and Pine have shown the potential for longer sustained canopy crowning along with downwind spotting and increased threat of breaching containment lines. Increased wind speeds this week will only worsen the potential for rapid forward spread of any fire starts.

While conditions are not yet to the levels of 2011, the area is quickly moving in that direction with both increasing numbers and severity of fires in the last 7-14 days.

Fire mitigation efforts should be followed including no outdoor burning or activity that can result in fire starts.

KBDI Values Below (Values over 600 indicate critically dry and elevated fire conditions with values over 700 indicating dangerous to extremely critical levels of fuel dryness).

[user:null]

KBDI Values Below (Values over 600 indicate critically dry and elevated fire conditions with values over 700 indicating dangerous to extremely critical levels of fuel dryness).

I'm not really sure how exactly they derive that index, though. I know for a fact that much of South Texas (Laredo, McAllen, Brownsville) has been consistently hotter and drier throughout this summer than SE Texas, with no recent rainfall either. Yet the KBDI in South Texas is quite lower that what it's showing for SE Texas/adjacent Louisiana.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

KBDI Values Below (Values over 600 indicate critically dry and elevated fire conditions with values over 700 indicating dangerous to extremely critical levels of fuel dryness).

I'm not really sure how exactly they derive that index, though. I know for a fact that much of South Texas (Laredo, McAllen, Brownsville) has been consistently hotter and drier throughout this summer than SE Texas, with no recent rainfall either. Yet the KBDI in South Texas is quite lower that what it's showing for SE Texas/adjacent Louisiana.

Vegetation is different. Dry pines versus dry nothing.

[Ptarmigan]

KBDI Values Below (Values over 600 indicate critically dry and elevated fire conditions with values over 700 indicating dangerous to extremely critical levels of fuel dryness).

I'm not really sure how exactly they derive that index, though. I know for a fact that much of South Texas (Laredo, McAllen, Brownsville) has been consistently hotter and drier throughout this summer than SE Texas, with no recent rainfall either. Yet the KBDI in South Texas is quite lower that what it's showing for SE Texas/adjacent Louisiana.

Vegetation is different. Dry pines versus dry nothing.

South Texas is closer to deserts. Believe it or not, Brownsville's hottest day recorded is in March 1984.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 081052
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Today is International Cat Day...now just hear meow-t...this is an
opportunity that I just HAVE to pounce on! This heat is not kitten
around as today will make Day 10 in our heat alert (Excessive Heat
Warning and/or Heat Advisory) streak. This is now our third double
digit streak of heat alerts over the past few months (19 days in
June and 16 days in July), so this summer will definitely be un-fur-
gettable. Although the midlevel high ("heatdome") will be directly
overhead today, it`ll be a tad bit weaker. In addition to that, we
have some upper level clouds already moving in from North TX this
meow-ning as a shortwave generates a MCS that`ll ride around the
ridge. Unfortunately, we won`t catch the tail end of any of that
rain, but all of the previous mentions add up to today`s
temperatures being a degree or so lower than Monday`s. Expect highs
in the 100-105°F range with heat index values ranging from 108-
114°F. As a result, an Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory
remain in effect through this evening.

This is the purr-fect opportunity to mention that a couple of
counties were downgraded from an Excessive Heat Warning to a Heat
Advisory for this afternoon, and there`s a paw-ssibility for
additional downgrades on Wednesday as we knock off another degree or
two off of the daytime highs. We won`t exactly be feline fine though
as temperatures north of I-10 will still climb well into the 100s.
Wednesday will feature a shortwave trough moving across the Four
Corners region generating a sfc low near the TX/OK panhandles (lee
cyclogenesis). This will tighten the pressure gradient leading to a
breezier day alongside temporarily kneading out the ridge aloft.
That not only elevates fire weather conditions even further, but
should also help keep temperatures down by a degree or so. Still
anticipating highs in the 100-104°F range for Wednesday with heat
index values around the 107-112°F range, so you can expect at least
a Heat Advisory to be in effect.

Now let`s paws for a moment and talk about Aggieland once again.
Monday was a hiss-toric day for them as they set
one...oops...scratch that...TWO daily temperature records (106°F
breaks the record of 105°F from 1988; record high minimum
temperature at 84°F ties 1899), tied for the most consecutive days
of 100+°F temperatures (30 days), and moved up to the top spot for
most consecutive days of 105+°F temperatures (8 days). The previous
top spot for most consecutive 100+°F days belonged to a 30 day
streak from 1998, but that`ll belong to 2023 by this afternoon as
that streak hits 31 days. These stats are purr-tty ap-paw-ling...and
as you can probably guess, this 30 day period (July 9-August 7) is
the warmest on record for College Station. It`ll be interesting to
see if College Station can claw at extending the 105+°F streak today
as it`ll depend on how long the upper level clouds stick around.

With heat alerts remaining in effect for today and additional
advisories/warnings likely being needed throughout the week, please
continue to keep heat safety at the top of your mind. Know the signs
of heat related illnesses, know the locations of the nearest cooling
centers, check on your family/friends/neighbors, drink plenty of
water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the heat, avoid
strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day,
wear light clothing/sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before
you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the
ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for
their paws. Stay safe, stay cool, and stay hydrated.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Upper ridging remains firmly in control thru the period as will
the unseasonably hot, dry wx. Heights may drop a touch Thurs-Fri
as a shortwave tracks ese across the Central/Southern Plains
toward the Tennessee Valley, but they climb right back up to
present levels this weekend into early next week. Think NBM POPs
are a bit too optimistic for inland areas (even at 20-30%) early
next week so nudged them down some. Probably could`ve taken the
mention out all together...but will let the later shifts have that
honor if need be. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

MVFR ceilings impacting northern sites (CXO and northward) once
again this morning, but upper level clouds streaming overhead from
the north could end these earlier than previous mornings. Winds
will start out southwesterly then become southerly to south-
southeasterly by this afternoon behind the sea breeze with gusts
around 20 knots at times. Another round of MVFR ceilings will be
possible for the northern sites again on early Wednesday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Gradient will be a bit tighter into Thurs & moderate onshore flow
will prevail. Speeds are currently bordering caution criteria
offshore, and suspect we`ll probably need to dust off the caution
flags tonight and again Wed and Thurs nights as they`ll probably
be a bit higher during the typical diurnal speed maximums
offshore. High risk of rip currents will remain in effect til 1pm
& will await the morning beach patrol observations to decide
whether it needs to be extended or not. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

With very hot and dry conditions continuing to persist, fuels will
continue to range from dry to critically dry across Southeast Texas.
RH values in the afternoon hours will bottom out in the 25-40% range
across the area with the driest values in the Brazos Valley.
Southerly winds will increase to around 15 mph this afternoon along
with occasional gusts near 20 mph on top of the Brazos Valley where
RH values will be around 25-30%. As a result, a Red Flag Warning
will go into effect this afternoon from Colorado County and
northward up to Brazos County.

Winds on Wednesday will be a bit breezier, so anticipating another
Red Flag Warning for at least our northern counties. Extreme caution
should be taken if working outdoors with any flammable materials.
Please keep in mind that majority of the counties in Southeast Texas
are under a burn ban, so be sure to follow your local ordinances.
Forecast fire danger from the Texas A&M Forest Service remains at
high to very high for most of the region through midweek.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 104 80 104 81 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 102 82 102 83 / 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 84 92 85 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-
164-176>179-195>200-210>212.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ195>197-210-211.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ213-214-226-227-
235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

High Rip Current Risk until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...47

[Stratton20]

The CPC definitely pulled the trigger too fast on above normal precipitation here, the ridge looks to remain locked in place for the foreseeable future, im starting to not even buy the ensembles show it breaking down mid month, models have been very very poor this summer with showing potential rain chances and almost never verifying, i just dont see any real relief any time soon, so frustrating

[Cromagnum]

Counting on zero relief until at least September now.

[user:null]

End of this week and in through next week still showing good potential.

Though this week remains dry, the eastern Gulf is forecast to get good storms. The upper moisture from those storms can potentially combine enough with the Gulf moisture/inverted trough to prevent the ridge from building in/locking over Texas. That's why the GFS backs away the ridge through mid week: it's much more aggressive compared to the CMC, but both show the demise of the death ridge by the end of next week

Of course, the ridge rebuilds ... but well north of Texas, bathing the state with loads of rain to become a "life ridge". But, also of course, that depiction is farther out.

[DoctorMu]

I’m with you. As soon as the youngest graduates, we’re out. Gonna be a long 5 years.

If a job opening or a "rich uncle" passes - we'd like to move to NC or CO. Decades of Brazos Valley summers - it's time to raise the white flag.

Wyoming and Montana >>>>>>>>>> Idiocy of most local and state CO governments. Trust me.

NC is decent, but I will take upstate SC over NC or Eastern TN over NC. Some of our best friends just finally left North Chicago for an eastern burb of Charlotte. They like it much more.

Greenville - Spartanburg? Outside the nearby foothills, and the Furman area, which are great, it's a trash heap. Columbia and Florence in the middle of the state have a lot of destitution and they can have streaks of temps near 100°F, since they are in the sandhills. I like the low country of Charleston to Jekyll island - beautiful area of country. Warm and humid, but lots of beaches and golf. The Gatlinburg area is nice in TN. But I like Asheville and Boone as well.

I was thinking more Alamance County in between the Triangle (RDU) and Triad (Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point). Property and local taxes are lower, homes are more affordable. Three hours to the beach. Three hours to the mountains, and in old stomping grounds. I'd be good.

North of Charlotte near Lake Norman is pretty nice as well. Overall, good weather all year round. A couple of ice storms a year would be the major weather concern.

In CO, it's a matter of finding the right county and gobs of $$. I wouldn't mind staking West Yellowstone. lol

Given the amount of interference the state of TX has had in my life + the relentless heat, anywhere else would feel a lot more free.

[DoctorMu]

End of this week and in through next week still showing good potential.

Though this week remains dry, the eastern Gulf is forecast to get good storms. The upper moisture from those storms can potentially combine enough with the Gulf moisture/inverted trough to prevent the ridge from building in/locking over Texas. That's why the GFS backs away the ridge through mid week: it's much more aggressive compared to the CMC, but both show the demise of the death ridge by the end of next week

Of course, the ridge rebuilds ... but well north of Texas, bathing the state with loads of rain to become a "life ridge". But, also of course, that depiction is farther out.

Ensembles are sticking to their guns on relief from the ridge beginning Aug 18. Euro and CMC are sliding in that direction. GFS hangs onto the DR until about Aug 22-23 before relief. Unfortunately, more misery until then.

[Pas_Bon]

Each morning, I keep telling myself, "one day closer to this misery being over with." It's coming.....and cannot come soon enough. That first truly cool morning, I think I will actually shed tears of joy. I keep clinging to what that will feel like.

[Stratton20]

Larry Cosgrove doesnt buy the ridge breaking down over texas mid month, says it probably is going to take until the first week of september for that to happen, , our ridge has been too stubborn to move and I just dont see it breaking down until we get a hurricane or a decent front to finally break it up

[Cromagnum]

I half-expect the death ridge to eat anything tropical that dare come this way (i.e. Don).

[jasons2k]

I half-expect the death ridge to eat anything tropical that dare come this way (i.e. Don).

This pattern evolution and long term hints are concerning to me. I think odds are increasing we won’t see any relief until September, but that relief will come in the form of ‘be careful what you wish for’ unwanted visitor.

Storm2k is ready.

[Cpv17]

I half-expect the death ridge to eat anything tropical that dare come this way (i.e. Don).

Honestly, I don’t feel that way, but I can understand why you would or anyone else would for that matter.

[sambucol]

I half-expect the death ridge to eat anything tropical that dare come this way (i.e. Don).

This pattern evolution and long term hints are concerning to me. I think odds are increasing we won’t see any relief until September, but that relief will come in the form of ‘be careful what you wish for’ unwanted visitor.

Storm2k is ready.

As in a tropical visitor?

[jasons2k]

I half-expect the death ridge to eat anything tropical that dare come this way (i.e. Don).

This pattern evolution and long term hints are concerning to me. I think odds are increasing we won’t see any relief until September, but that relief will come in the form of ‘be careful what you wish for’ unwanted visitor.

Storm2k is ready.

As in a tropical visitor?

Unfortunately, yes. I think we’ll have a strong SW ridge to the west and a strong Bermuda high to the east. The persistent disturbances we are seeing to our north all summer are eventually going to swing a trough into the southern plains as we get into September. The gulf will be a wide open fire pit with lighter fluid just waiting for a match.

Hurricanes are a mechanism to expend heat and energy that has built-up in the atmosphere and there is an incredible amount of pent-up energy about to be released.