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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 1:08 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 1:03 pm Lol come on CMC, getting our hopes up

Lol you can usually add like 10 degrees to what the CMC shows.

Maybe 20°. The Ensembles don't show a front yet.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 1:39 pm

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 1:33 pm Nothing on radar to my south anymore so going to wind up with a big fat goose egg like normal. So tired of having to water twice a week in a vain attempt to keep my yard barely alive.

These types of showers that we’ve been getting today won’t really do much anyway. We’ve had 2 of them and they barely lasted for 1-2 minutes. Enough to settle the dust for a few hours, if that.

I had a brief tease. Caught the edge of a developing storm that seemed so promising and then after about 20 seconds it stopped. Managed to get a whole 0.02”

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 12:35 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 12:20 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 12:08 pm Im seeing signs of potentially our first legit fall front of the year in the day 8-10 range, The CMC is especially bullish, but even the GFS and euro also show a decent cool down, with more troughing setting up over the eastern US, this is beginning to spell the end of our heat ridge pattern for good

Yes! I think this stagnant pattern is about to potentially be gone for good in a week or two! We should gradually see an uptick in rain, especially as we near November. El Nino will really start to affect our pattern soon.

I’ve never in my life heard that El Niño doesn’t impact our weather much during the summer months. I think that argument is horse crap. Back in April and May mostly all of us were saying it would be a wet summer. The culprit was the -PDO. It had nothing to do with “El Niño doesn’t have much influence on our weather during the summer”. Had the PDO been more positive then we would’ve seen more rain this summer. El Niño can still impact our weather with more rain during the summer but not with a big blob of colder than normal waters off the Baja extending past Hawaii.

I respectfully disagree. One of the projects I performed when I took physical climatology at State was to select a site heavily influenced by ENSO. I collected ONI data going back all the way to 1950 and then compared it with rainfall and temperature data in Lafayette, LA. I expected to find a strong correlation between El Niño and summer precip, but instead the correlation was very weak. Arguably the PDO likely has a greater influence, but that would suggest that El Niño really doesn't dominate our summer weather which is supported by the data I collected. I will see if I can find a place where I can upload my data and share it.

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 3:37 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 12:35 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 12:20 pm

Yes! I think this stagnant pattern is about to potentially be gone for good in a week or two! We should gradually see an uptick in rain, especially as we near November. El Nino will really start to affect our pattern soon.

I’ve never in my life heard that El Niño doesn’t impact our weather much during the summer months. I think that argument is horse crap. Back in April and May mostly all of us were saying it would be a wet summer. The culprit was the -PDO. It had nothing to do with “El Niño doesn’t have much influence on our weather during the summer”. Had the PDO been more positive then we would’ve seen more rain this summer. El Niño can still impact our weather with more rain during the summer but not with a big blob of colder than normal waters off the Baja extending past Hawaii.

I respectfully disagree. One of the projects I performed when I took physical climatology at State was to select a site heavily influenced by ENSO. I collected ONI data going back all the way to 1950 and then compared it with rainfall and temperature data in Lafayette, LA. I expected to find a strong correlation between El Niño and summer precip, but instead the correlation was very weak. Arguably the PDO likely has a greater influence, but that would suggest that El Niño really doesn't dominate our summer weather which is supported by the data I collected. I will see if I can find a place where I can upload my data and share it.

Okay, if that’s the case then why have I never heard of it till this summer? Even experts I know were saying back in late spring that this summer would produce. Now those same people are saying “El Nino doesn’t impact our weather during the summer”. It’s just weird to me how we've been through several El Niño’s and I’ve never once heard that it doesn’t influence our weather much during the summer. Heck, La Niña’s do. So why wouldn’t El Niño?

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 3:53 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 3:37 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 12:35 pm

I’ve never in my life heard that El Niño doesn’t impact our weather much during the summer months. I think that argument is horse crap. Back in April and May mostly all of us were saying it would be a wet summer. The culprit was the -PDO. It had nothing to do with “El Niño doesn’t have much influence on our weather during the summer”. Had the PDO been more positive then we would’ve seen more rain this summer. El Niño can still impact our weather with more rain during the summer but not with a big blob of colder than normal waters off the Baja extending past Hawaii.

I respectfully disagree. One of the projects I performed when I took physical climatology at State was to select a site heavily influenced by ENSO. I collected ONI data going back all the way to 1950 and then compared it with rainfall and temperature data in Lafayette, LA. I expected to find a strong correlation between El Niño and summer precip, but instead the correlation was very weak. Arguably the PDO likely has a greater influence, but that would suggest that El Niño really doesn't dominate our summer weather which is supported by the data I collected. I will see if I can find a place where I can upload my data and share it.

Okay, if that’s the case then why have I never heard of it till this summer? Even experts I know were saying back in late spring that this summer would produce. Now those same people are saying “El Nino doesn’t impact our weather during the summer”. It’s just weird to me how we've been through several El Niño’s and I’ve never once heard that it doesn’t influence our weather much during the summer. Heck, La Niña’s do. So why wouldn’t El Niño?

Because people change their stance and try to gaslight what they originally said.

El Niño has some effect on our weather during Summer but it’s not how you think. Nino and Nina affect our Fall and Winter far more than Spring and Summer.

I’m also of the belief our background State is just now becoming full Nino.

That’s it?!? It’s only 4:30 and the radar is almost clear? Seriously? Another sick joke of a “system” finally bringing us rain.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 4:54 pm That’s it?!? It’s only 4:30 and the radar is almost clear? Seriously? Another sick joke of a “system” finally bringing us rain.

Yep. I've been dragging the hose around all day. Not a single drop.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 4:54 pm El Niño has some effect on our weather during Summer but it’s not how you think. Nino and Nina affect our Fall and Winter far more than Spring and Summer.

I’m also of the belief our background State is just now becoming full Nino.

Question is, would you have said that back in May?

But I do agree we’re more in a Nino now than we were then.

I don’t know how I would phrase it then, but a persistent negative PDO and Bermuda High is not good for us in Summer, Nino or not.

Nino affects our chances at topical systems far more than anything else.

I spy a decent fall front on the GFS at day 8, fingers crossed this starts showing up in the ensembles

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 5:52 pm I spy a decent fall front on the GFS at day 8, fingers crossed this starts showing up in the ensembles

I doubt it will. Not even trying to be a Nancy here. Just trying to keep it .

While quite scattered compared to what occured northeast around Lufkin (and then into areas of Louisiana), storm coverage was rather decent today in SE Texas. Still should be good chances tomorrow and Wednesday.

Regardless of whether or not you got rain today, there is actually one very good silver-lining: with the great rainfall that occured across those East Texas/Louisiana areas, that moisture (and assisted rejuvination of plant life) would contribute more latent heat/less sensible heat, which would limit daytime highs, in-turn pushing the "North Texas surface low" (shown on previous GFS runs) farther west. Basically, that "surface low" was the reason the previous GFS runs showed storm activity shunted well East compared to previous models, and limiting it's influence means greater likelyhood of more storms coming back this Saturday (as seen on EURO, ICON, etc): indeed, even the 18z GFS has now "caved" to the other models in showing that activity.

I hope so. Everything around here is brown and toast. As bad as the 2011 “1,000” year event.

JFC I can’t wait to move to the beach!

It's WAY too dry for any of the scattered few areas to contribute anything at all to surrounding areas that didn't get anything. A foot of rain could fall and most of the land would look dry in a single day.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 7:21 pm It's WAY too dry for any of the scattered few areas to contribute anything at all to surrounding areas that didn't get anything. A foot of rain could fall and most of the land would look dry in a single day.

I think if that happened most of it would be runoff because the ground is too hard and it wouldn’t be able to sink in.

It just drizzled here. Just enough to grab the dust and spot my cars..i just washed them yesterday. How disappointing.

biggerbyte wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 7:33 pm It just drizzled here. Just enough to grab the dust and spot my cars..i just washed them yesterday. How disappointing.

Absolutely nothing here in College Station. The seabreeze was just pointing toward the LA border.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 5:52 pm I spy a decent fall front on the GFS at day 8, fingers crossed this starts showing up in the ensembles

I hope so. I will take rain over cooler weather.

Oh hey Duke Fightin Elkos!