2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End

[texoz]

Good view of system in SW Carrib, plus the mysterious blob off the NC coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

Hint, blob was the t-storm complex that hit the NE over the last couple of days.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z model suite is in and those models keep a broad area of low pressure meandering across the Western/Central Caribbean throughout the medium range.

HPC Final Update:

ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER THE BASE OF THE WARM CORE
RIDGE...A BROAD CONVECTIVE LOW CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF PANAMA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BULK OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE RETROGRADES AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO /UNLIKE THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS/ WHICH SHOULD
KEEP VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LOW CONSTRAINED TO THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD. THE 17Z COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC MAINTAINED
REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE. AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
A LARGE SYSTEM...ANY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

[srainhoutx]

Wind shear looks mighty strong across the Caribbean for any near term development.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. 
THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30.  LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...6...AND
2...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2011 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME           PRONUNCIATION    NAME            PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ARLENE         AR LEEN-         LEE             LEE
BRET           BRET             MARIA           MUH REE- UH
CINDY          SIN- DEE         NATE            NAIT
DON            DAHN             OPHELIA         O FEEL- YA
EMILY          EH- MIH LEE      PHILIPPE        FEE LEEP-
FRANKLIN       FRANK- LIN       RINA            REE- NUH
GERT           GERT             SEAN            SHAWN
HARVEY         HAR- VEE         TAMMY           TAM- EE
IRENE          EYE REEN-        VINCE           VINSS
JOSE           HO ZAY-          WHITNEY         WHIT- NEE
KATIA          KA TEE- AH

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. 
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES
...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES.  IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.  IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE.  TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.  SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER
CASE.  YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[Andrew]

Wind shear looks mighty strong across the Caribbean for any near term development.

[srainhoutx]

CSU Tropical Update for June 1st has been issued. They are going with 16/9/5 this season...

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2011.pdf

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS and Canadian continue to suggest that the area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean will slowly develop and drift N, just S of Cuba/Isle of Youth in the days ahead...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF DAYTONA
BEACH FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH WITH
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED WHILE IT MOVES OVER LAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE ONCE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER
CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
http://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONA ... CENTER.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
NNNN

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is sniffing some Western Gulf mischief in the longer range...

[srainhoutx]

Some interesting developments in the long range via the Euro and the GFS as mischief continues to show up on the la la land charts. The Euro suggests a disturbance nearing the Islands in the day 7-10 time frame while the GFS track a weak vort across the Caribbean that begins to develop around the 19-21, +/- a day or two. There are also suggestions the an MJO pulse will arrive near that time, so there may be something to the models sniffing out some development.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a wave moving off Africa will track across the Atlantic and may well be what the Euro is sniffing. We will see what future runs offer...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro continues the trend...albeit weak...

06082011 12Z Euro Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_240.gif

06082011 12Z Euro 500mb Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_240.gif

[srainhoutx]

The GFS and Euro continue to advertise a strong tropical wave traversing the Atlantic and approaching the hostile Caribbean next week. The Euro suggests the energy will cross the Caribbean, which is highly sheared this time of year toward Nicaragua. The long range la la land GFS suggests that an area of vorticity will lift NW and near the Yucatan near June 20th, +/- a couple of days, and enter the Gulf. We will see. One thing of note is the lack of Saharan dust we often see in June crossing the Atlantic. WV/TPW imagery clearly shows higher moisture content and suggests that we may see a bit sooner start to Cape Verde season, if that does not change in the days and weeks ahead and may well be a harbinger of things to come.

Edit to add there is a hint of upward motion suggested (albeit weak) on the 15 day MJO charts near the 16th...

The attachment 06092011 00Z Euro Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_240.gif is no longer available

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise a disturbance in the very long range near the Yucatan and the 240 hour Euro joined in today via the 12Z run...

[srainhoutx]

A fairly strong tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic has gained some separation from the ITCZ. Upper winds look hostile for the next few days, but may relax a bit as the axis approaches the Windward Islands. MIMIC is showing this feature and the increased moisture spreading W bound. The lack of Saharan dust is still evident on WV/TPW imagery and the 06Z GFS is sniffing a bit of spin as well...

[srainhoutx]

The models are beginning to converge on a solution that brings a rather robust tropical wave near the Windward Islands later this week. As this wave axis traverses the Caribbean, the Euro suggests a slow NW turn develops later in the period that nears the Yucatan and eventually in the Gulf. And of course the Canadian blows up a storm in the longer range...

[kellybell4770]

I never thought I would be so happy for the threat of a storm!!!

[srainhoutx]

A robust Kelvin wave will move into the Atlantic next week. While models are lack luster concerning any organized systems, there are some hints of tropical waves moving across the Caribbean. Just perhaps enough to trigger TC genesis in the Western Basin? We will see. Edit to add a fairly stout tropical wave will be approaching the Windward Islands later this week...

[srainhoutx]

I don't see anthing on that low resolution Euro display (highest grid resoltion of any global, lamest free display resolution) but the usual strong low level Easterlies that make the Central Caribbean hostile for development this early in the season.

And nothing would be expected to develop within the Eastern/Central Caribbean this time of year. What would need to be watched is the Western Caribbean (Western Basin) as this area would be favored, climo wise.

[wxman57]

I'm starting to think we may need to wait another month or more for any development. Maybe even late July. Wave train off of Africa is quite weak. I've heard talk of a Kelvin wave arriving after the 20th, and that it might help to enhance the wave train over Africa late this month. We'll see.

By the way, my favorite site for viewing the tropical region with the Euro and Canadian models is Allan Huffman's models page:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

12Z Euro:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

00Z Euro:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

12Z Canadian:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html

00Z Canadian:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html

Lots of other good stuff there, including ensemble runs.