103
FXUS64 KHGX 071103
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
603 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
- Expect daily development of showers and thunderstorms through
the end of the week, peaking in the afternoons.
- Locally heavy downpours are the primary concern from the
strongest of these daily rounds of storms.
- We may see a shift in the pattern towards a hotter and drier
setup late in the week, but the precise timing of this shift is
quite uncertain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
We are solidly in a summer weather pattern across Southeast Texas,
and the forecast will continue to revolve around the daily nuances
in passing features modulating the strength and orientation of the
subtropical ridge. The main feature of interest for us this week
will be an inverted trough making its way across the Gulf in our
direction, then gradually settling in over eastern Texas for a bit
before drifting southwest towards the Rio Grande late in the week.
Rain chances will be on the rebound as the trough makes its way
in, with greater afternoon coverage of showers and storms. This
trend should peak in the middle of the week when the trough is
more or less over us, and also looks to maybe link up a bit with
troughiness in the northern stream. This will keep midlevel
heights suppressed, and more supportive of more widespread diurnal
convection. Fortunately, precipitable water looks to be below the
90th percentile, which should preclude a watchout for flooding
issues...but PWATs in the area during summer are high enough
typically where isolated spots of concern may emerge should the
strongest storms of the day drop some localized downpours on a
particularly vulnerable spot.
Later in the week, though the daily potential for summertime
convection will continue, we should see coverage diminish
gradually as the trough drifts off to the southwest and ridging at
least attempts to build back in. However, it looks like the
highest heights will be way out over the Desert Southwest, while
we kind of struggle to fill in the weakness in the subtropical
ridge the passing trough leaves behind. Because of this, I`m not
ready to dry things out entirely, just start to trend PoPs
downward into the end of the week.
As these seasonable daily rain trends carry on, so too do
seasonable temperatures. We should see things fairly close to
seasonal averages for much of the week thanks to the afternoon
clouds and rainfall keeping things from getting too out of hand.
Indeed, my main alteration to the NBM was to replace the
deterministic highs with the 50th percentile of the NBM (and
tweaked slightly with other consensus blends) to hedge on the
slightly cooler side of things. Late in the week, we should see
temperatures start to slowly make their way upwards, and I do
allow that to occur, but until I see a real solid return of the
subtropical ridge, I don`t think I`m quite ready to commit fully
to a meaningfully hotter/drier pattern. It should happen at some
point...I`m just not confident in precisely when, just yet.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Low but non-zero chance of MVFR conditions during the early
morning hours. Scattered showers and isolated storms will be
possible across the region during the daytime, especially in the
afternoon. Light southerly winds and VFR conditions will prevail
throughout much of the TAF period.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the end of
the week. Light to moderate winds and low seas are expected
through Wednesday. Occasionally higher gusts up to 15 to 20 knots
are possible, particularly later in the week. Winds and seas may
increase towards the end of the week along with the increase in
winds. Locally higher winds and seas possible in the vicinity of
any thunderstorm that develops over the bays and Gulf waters this
week.
At the coast, the generally onshore winds will boost water levels
above astronomical norms, and guidance suggests several high tides
with levels above 2.5 feet above MLLW - more similar to highest
astronomical tides, when those would generally be above a foot
lower, near MHHW. Still, this is pretty safely below any coastal
flooding concerns. Similarly, while risk for rip currents is not
low because of the persistent onshore winds, rip current risk (and
observed strength per Galveston Beach Patrol) looks to be more
moderate for the time being.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 74 91 73 / 30 10 30 10
Houston (IAH) 92 77 92 75 / 50 10 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 82 90 82 / 40 10 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Luchs
July 2025
More flooding taking place across CTX this morning. The Copperas Cove area is absolutely getting hammered this morning.
-
biggerbyte
- Posts: 1406
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
So many innocent lives gone. It is something I'll never understand.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6282
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Not sure where to put this, so I will stick it here....
The Eyewall
Chantal floods North Carolina further underscoring the need to monitor forecast adjustments ahead of events
By Matt Lanza on July 7, 2025
In brief: Tropical Storm Chantal's remnants brought record flooding to parts of North Carolina overnight. It will exit off to the north and east later today. More heavy rain is causing flooding issues in Texas again. And Saharan dust is choking the Atlantic for now. For those that rely on email subscriptions to the site, please see the bottom for changes taking shape today.
Note: Most of the data in these posts originates from NOAA and NWS. Many of the taxpayer-funded forecasting tools described below come from NOAA-led research from research institutes that will have their funding eliminated in the current proposed 2026 budget. Access to these tools to inform and protect lives and property would not be possible without NOAA’s work and continuous research efforts.
North Carolina Chantal flooding
Overnight, rains pounded portions of North Carolina and southern Virginia.
Rain totals ending this morning from the last 48 hours show as much as 7 to 10 inches parts of interior North Carolina between the Triangle and Triad. (NOAA NSSL)
The Eno and Haw Rivers in North Carolina are in record flooding territory as a result of the rains. The Haw River's records go back to the 1970s and the record level of about 22.5 feet was set earlier this morning southwest of Durham near Bynum, NC.
A preliminary record flood on the Haw River southwest of Durham. (NOAA)
The Eno River just northwest of Durham absolutely obliterated the previous record by nearly 10 feet. Records appear to only go back to the 1980s, but there's no questioning that this was a very impressive new record.
The Eno River broke its previous flood of record by nearly 10 feet outside Durham, NC. (NOAA)
This was another instance where people were left scrambling in the middle of the night to get to higher ground. And it's another instance where warnings may have been meteorologically adequate but receiving them was tougher. This topic is going to justifiably take up a lot of oxygen in the coming days.
Much like the flooding in Texas, this flooding in North Carolina while somewhat predictable escalated very late in the game forecast-wise. Compare the 48 hour rainfall forecasts using the probability matched mean product from NOAA's HREF model below. The 00z run, what I was looking at yesterday while writing my post showed minimal risk of significant flooding rains. The 12z run, which was available a couple hours later? Much more adequate.
NOAA's HREF model caught onto the rains late in the game but once it did, it did a very good job. (NOAA SPC)
The HRRR model also caught on late in the game too, though its performance actually worsened somewhat as the day progressed.
I think that the takeaway here is we had another event that showed us how model guidance in flash flood situations needs to be monitored religiously leading up to the event. If you are an end user of weather forecast information in Texas or North Carolina and you assumed the forecast was settled by 9 AM on the day of the nighttime event that caused historic flooding, you missed out on a ton of critically valuable information. Weather forecasting is so much better in 2025 than it ever has been. Our tools rarely miss something major at the end of the day. But they don't always catch on 2 or 3 days ahead of time. But if you happen to use weather information to conduct your work or business or for public safety, it is absolutely critical that you monitor things closely leading up to any weather event. We can't just assume anymore that it will be all's well that ends well. And we can't just check out on any given day.
Texas flooding continues
Another round of heavy rain impacted portions of Texas overnight, with upwards of 4 to 8 inches of rain falling in some small areas west of Killeen, farther north than the weekend's rainfall.
Rainfall estimates for the last 24 hours ending this morning. (NOAA NSSL)
No major incidents have been reported yet, but flooding did occur in the Killeen area.
Rains are expected to continue through the day in spots. The overall weather pattern responsible for a lot of the rain and flooding is beginning to slowly unwind though, so as the week progresses, storminess should begin to ease up some.
Moderate risk (level 3/4) of flash flooding exists north and west of Kerrville in much of Hill Country today. (NOAA WPC)
Still the moderate risk for excessive rainfall is in place, as we still have some ingredients available for hefty rainfall. It is possible that heavy rains will disrupt recovery efforts, and all people in the region responding to Thursday night's disaster should remain on guard for heavy rainfall and quickly changing conditions today.
Tropical Atlantic
Quiet in the Atlantic, with Chantal's remnants continuing to lift northward up the Eastern Seaboard. Those will exit off the coast of New Jersey today and out to sea. Locally heavy downpours could occur in spots from the Chesapeake Bay into the Philadelphia and Trenton areas. A slight risk (2/4) for heavy rainfall exists there.
Forecast rain totals in excess of 4 inches are possible in Delmarva today through Wednesday from Chantal's remnants and a humid, warm weather pattern. (Pivotal Weather)
Beyond Chantal I think the Atlantic looks quiet this week. We have a lot of Saharan dust in place, and that should help suppress any development. After this week, the next area to watch may be in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico next week. A handful of ensemble members and AI ensemble members from various model suites indicate some potential there in about 10 days or so. Nothing to worry about at this time.
Saharan dust is choking most of the Atlantic basin right now, which should help limit any tropical concerns over the next 7 to 10 days there. (University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies)
Last note, our housekeeping update:
We will be migrating our email newsletter over to the Substack platform today. If you currently subscribe to The Eyewall via email, your email should roll over to our Substack without you having to do anything. We understand a few people have various concerns about the Substack platform, and some of the content posted there by other writers. If you decide to unsubscribe from emails, we understand. But the benefits of this route outweigh the potential costs. The primary issue is that WordPress caps our email subscribers, and the process to manage an account is not user-friendly. For a site with a limited budget such as ours, this is the best way to ensure the continued delivery of an email newsletter with our content. We will still continue to post here at The Eyewall.com, but updates will not be sent via email from here.
Also: Nothing at all is changing with Space City Weather. So for our Houston readers, our site, email, and annual fundraiser is not changing! This only applies to The Eyewall.
We hope that this will offer us the flexibility to do more things, offer more options, more content, and a better overall user experience as time goes on. Thanks for your support!
The Eyewall
Chantal floods North Carolina further underscoring the need to monitor forecast adjustments ahead of events
By Matt Lanza on July 7, 2025
In brief: Tropical Storm Chantal's remnants brought record flooding to parts of North Carolina overnight. It will exit off to the north and east later today. More heavy rain is causing flooding issues in Texas again. And Saharan dust is choking the Atlantic for now. For those that rely on email subscriptions to the site, please see the bottom for changes taking shape today.
Note: Most of the data in these posts originates from NOAA and NWS. Many of the taxpayer-funded forecasting tools described below come from NOAA-led research from research institutes that will have their funding eliminated in the current proposed 2026 budget. Access to these tools to inform and protect lives and property would not be possible without NOAA’s work and continuous research efforts.
North Carolina Chantal flooding
Overnight, rains pounded portions of North Carolina and southern Virginia.
Rain totals ending this morning from the last 48 hours show as much as 7 to 10 inches parts of interior North Carolina between the Triangle and Triad. (NOAA NSSL)
The Eno and Haw Rivers in North Carolina are in record flooding territory as a result of the rains. The Haw River's records go back to the 1970s and the record level of about 22.5 feet was set earlier this morning southwest of Durham near Bynum, NC.
A preliminary record flood on the Haw River southwest of Durham. (NOAA)
The Eno River just northwest of Durham absolutely obliterated the previous record by nearly 10 feet. Records appear to only go back to the 1980s, but there's no questioning that this was a very impressive new record.
The Eno River broke its previous flood of record by nearly 10 feet outside Durham, NC. (NOAA)
This was another instance where people were left scrambling in the middle of the night to get to higher ground. And it's another instance where warnings may have been meteorologically adequate but receiving them was tougher. This topic is going to justifiably take up a lot of oxygen in the coming days.
Much like the flooding in Texas, this flooding in North Carolina while somewhat predictable escalated very late in the game forecast-wise. Compare the 48 hour rainfall forecasts using the probability matched mean product from NOAA's HREF model below. The 00z run, what I was looking at yesterday while writing my post showed minimal risk of significant flooding rains. The 12z run, which was available a couple hours later? Much more adequate.
NOAA's HREF model caught onto the rains late in the game but once it did, it did a very good job. (NOAA SPC)
The HRRR model also caught on late in the game too, though its performance actually worsened somewhat as the day progressed.
I think that the takeaway here is we had another event that showed us how model guidance in flash flood situations needs to be monitored religiously leading up to the event. If you are an end user of weather forecast information in Texas or North Carolina and you assumed the forecast was settled by 9 AM on the day of the nighttime event that caused historic flooding, you missed out on a ton of critically valuable information. Weather forecasting is so much better in 2025 than it ever has been. Our tools rarely miss something major at the end of the day. But they don't always catch on 2 or 3 days ahead of time. But if you happen to use weather information to conduct your work or business or for public safety, it is absolutely critical that you monitor things closely leading up to any weather event. We can't just assume anymore that it will be all's well that ends well. And we can't just check out on any given day.
Texas flooding continues
Another round of heavy rain impacted portions of Texas overnight, with upwards of 4 to 8 inches of rain falling in some small areas west of Killeen, farther north than the weekend's rainfall.
Rainfall estimates for the last 24 hours ending this morning. (NOAA NSSL)
No major incidents have been reported yet, but flooding did occur in the Killeen area.
Rains are expected to continue through the day in spots. The overall weather pattern responsible for a lot of the rain and flooding is beginning to slowly unwind though, so as the week progresses, storminess should begin to ease up some.
Moderate risk (level 3/4) of flash flooding exists north and west of Kerrville in much of Hill Country today. (NOAA WPC)
Still the moderate risk for excessive rainfall is in place, as we still have some ingredients available for hefty rainfall. It is possible that heavy rains will disrupt recovery efforts, and all people in the region responding to Thursday night's disaster should remain on guard for heavy rainfall and quickly changing conditions today.
Tropical Atlantic
Quiet in the Atlantic, with Chantal's remnants continuing to lift northward up the Eastern Seaboard. Those will exit off the coast of New Jersey today and out to sea. Locally heavy downpours could occur in spots from the Chesapeake Bay into the Philadelphia and Trenton areas. A slight risk (2/4) for heavy rainfall exists there.
Forecast rain totals in excess of 4 inches are possible in Delmarva today through Wednesday from Chantal's remnants and a humid, warm weather pattern. (Pivotal Weather)
Beyond Chantal I think the Atlantic looks quiet this week. We have a lot of Saharan dust in place, and that should help suppress any development. After this week, the next area to watch may be in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico next week. A handful of ensemble members and AI ensemble members from various model suites indicate some potential there in about 10 days or so. Nothing to worry about at this time.
Saharan dust is choking most of the Atlantic basin right now, which should help limit any tropical concerns over the next 7 to 10 days there. (University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies)
Last note, our housekeeping update:
We will be migrating our email newsletter over to the Substack platform today. If you currently subscribe to The Eyewall via email, your email should roll over to our Substack without you having to do anything. We understand a few people have various concerns about the Substack platform, and some of the content posted there by other writers. If you decide to unsubscribe from emails, we understand. But the benefits of this route outweigh the potential costs. The primary issue is that WordPress caps our email subscribers, and the process to manage an account is not user-friendly. For a site with a limited budget such as ours, this is the best way to ensure the continued delivery of an email newsletter with our content. We will still continue to post here at The Eyewall.com, but updates will not be sent via email from here.
Also: Nothing at all is changing with Space City Weather. So for our Houston readers, our site, email, and annual fundraiser is not changing! This only applies to The Eyewall.
We hope that this will offer us the flexibility to do more things, offer more options, more content, and a better overall user experience as time goes on. Thanks for your support!
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6282
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
854
FXUS64 KHGX 071647
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
...New MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
- A daily risk of showers and thunderstorms continues through the
end of the week. Not every location will receive rain every day.
- Locally heavy thunderstorms capable of localized flooding
cannot be ruled out.
- Seasonably hot and very humid conditions to prevail through the
forecast period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Our region is beginning to feel the influence of a mid/upper low
that is currently in the Gulf, centered south of Louisiana. This
low will continue it`s slow westward progression over the next few
days, enhancing shower/thunderstorm chances across southeast
Texas through Wednesday. By Thursday, SE Texas may experience the
influence of another trough that builds southwestward from the
Midwest into the Arklatex. With continuously high PWATs in place,
the added lift from these mid/upper disturbance will result in
daily shower/thunderstorm chances through the end of the week. Not
every community will receive rain each day. But those that do
could experience locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
Ridging may try to build by the end of the week / weekend. But
long range models have consistently over estimated ridging beyond
5 or 6 days. When looking at the day-to-day forecast, you may
notice that Friday`s rain chances are the lowest of the week. This
is due to the lower PWATs indicated by the global models on that
day.
Regarding temperatures, inland afternoon highs are expected to
average in the low/mid 90s, with coastal areas generally around
90. It will remain quite humid. A few areas may achieve the upper
90s by the end of the week if ridging manages to build enough.
Generally speaking, these values are pretty normal for this time
of year. But even normal southeast Texas July heat is hazardous,
especially to sensitive groups (example: elderly and young
children) and for people doing moderate to strenuous physical
activity outside.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Scattered shra/tsra expected this afternoon. Locally heavy tsra
possible. Shra/tsra should diminish this evening. Mostly VFR
conditions through the TAF period. However, sub-VFR conditions are
likely within heavier tsra. There may also be localized areas of
MVFR cigs and vis tomorrow morning. Shra possible tomorrow morning
south of I-10, expanding farther inland by the afternoon. Tsra
will be possible again by the afternoon tomorrow.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected most days this
week. Winds through the middle of the week will generally be from
the south in the 10-15 knot range with occasionally gusts. Seas
should generally be 2-3 feet. However, winds and seas are expected
to increase somewhat by the end of the week. Some of the models
are showing a relatively large 15-20 knot fetch developing over
the Gulf, suggesting that the current forecast of 4 foot seas in
our offshore zones is a little low. Coudln`t rule out higher seas
if the larger fetch scenario pans out.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 74 91 73 / 50 10 40 10
Houston (IAH) 92 76 92 75 / 60 10 70 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 90 82 / 50 20 50 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 071647
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
...New MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
- A daily risk of showers and thunderstorms continues through the
end of the week. Not every location will receive rain every day.
- Locally heavy thunderstorms capable of localized flooding
cannot be ruled out.
- Seasonably hot and very humid conditions to prevail through the
forecast period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Our region is beginning to feel the influence of a mid/upper low
that is currently in the Gulf, centered south of Louisiana. This
low will continue it`s slow westward progression over the next few
days, enhancing shower/thunderstorm chances across southeast
Texas through Wednesday. By Thursday, SE Texas may experience the
influence of another trough that builds southwestward from the
Midwest into the Arklatex. With continuously high PWATs in place,
the added lift from these mid/upper disturbance will result in
daily shower/thunderstorm chances through the end of the week. Not
every community will receive rain each day. But those that do
could experience locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
Ridging may try to build by the end of the week / weekend. But
long range models have consistently over estimated ridging beyond
5 or 6 days. When looking at the day-to-day forecast, you may
notice that Friday`s rain chances are the lowest of the week. This
is due to the lower PWATs indicated by the global models on that
day.
Regarding temperatures, inland afternoon highs are expected to
average in the low/mid 90s, with coastal areas generally around
90. It will remain quite humid. A few areas may achieve the upper
90s by the end of the week if ridging manages to build enough.
Generally speaking, these values are pretty normal for this time
of year. But even normal southeast Texas July heat is hazardous,
especially to sensitive groups (example: elderly and young
children) and for people doing moderate to strenuous physical
activity outside.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Scattered shra/tsra expected this afternoon. Locally heavy tsra
possible. Shra/tsra should diminish this evening. Mostly VFR
conditions through the TAF period. However, sub-VFR conditions are
likely within heavier tsra. There may also be localized areas of
MVFR cigs and vis tomorrow morning. Shra possible tomorrow morning
south of I-10, expanding farther inland by the afternoon. Tsra
will be possible again by the afternoon tomorrow.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected most days this
week. Winds through the middle of the week will generally be from
the south in the 10-15 knot range with occasionally gusts. Seas
should generally be 2-3 feet. However, winds and seas are expected
to increase somewhat by the end of the week. Some of the models
are showing a relatively large 15-20 knot fetch developing over
the Gulf, suggesting that the current forecast of 4 foot seas in
our offshore zones is a little low. Coudln`t rule out higher seas
if the larger fetch scenario pans out.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 74 91 73 / 50 10 40 10
Houston (IAH) 92 76 92 75 / 60 10 70 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 90 82 / 50 20 50 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self
I can't imagine all the mixed emotions grabbing your daughter. Katrina was a terrible day and week and years afterwards.Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 07, 2025 6:32 am This event has devastated me on a level which I cannot remember feeling since Katrina. I was stuck at a NOLA hospital during Katrina and afterwards. This caused all those memories to come flooding back. I know Harvey was horrible, too. I picked up my 11yo daughter from week-long Summer camp on Saturday morning and there are parents who never had the chance to do so. I am gutted.
More of this is likely through Wednesday at least.
