JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[ticka1]

got rained on several times today while out and about!!

[Paul Robison]

The weekend forecast continues to advertise a weakness across Texas as we remain on the Western periphery of a SE Ridge and an inverted trough extending from NE Mexico into the Edwards Plateau. PW''s remain rather high as additional moisture from remnants of Carlos over Mexico stream into S Central Texas. Expected scattered heat of the day thunderstorm activity across the Lower Rio Grande Valley, the Hill Country and SE Texas to continue throughout the weekend as the inverted trough gradually slips further W.

Isolated to scattered daytime showers and storms look to continue early next week with a bit less areal coverage. By mid week expect rain chances to slowly increase daily as a Western upper ridge develops over Nevada and Utah and the SW monsoon season begins to organize. To the East as pesky Bill exits the Mid Atlantic, a deepening trough develops putting our Region in a NW flow aloft. Monsoonal moisture to our West and increasing low level moisture with an onshore flow off the Western Gulf sets the stage for increasing showers and storms by next weekend. The extended range guidance suggests deep tropical moisture increasing from the Western Caribbean into the Western Gulf as a Eastward progressing Consecutively Coupled Kelvin Wave nears the Eastern Pacific with a favorable MJO pulse of rising air allowing tropical thunderstorms to develop off the Pacific Coast of Mexico and the continuation of the monsoon season across Arizona and New Mexico by the end of June into early July. Have a great weekend and drink plenty of water if outdoors. The heat index may near 100F with all the moisture from saturated soils and partly cloudy skies between the daily scattered thunderstorm activity.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022015
400 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...TENACIOUS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 87.1W
ABOUT 25 MILES...72 KM...SE OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA.
ABOUT 70 MILES...56 KM...NW OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...20 MPH...30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS A SECTION OF
SOUTHERN INDIANA. FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD WATCHES EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. AFTER SPENDING MORE
THAN THREE DAYS OVER LAND...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AS IT TRACKS WELL
INLAND OVER SATURATED GROUNDS RESULTING FROM ANTECEDENT HEAVY
RAINS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DECENT CONVECTION
AROUND THE CENTER OF BILL ALONG WITH A PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH.  RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AHEAD
OF THE CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH OF BILL...A
DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS SHIELD
OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN GENERALLY PIVOTING OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
BECOME STEADY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE THIS
PAST AFTERNOON. RECENT PEAK WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 25 TO 30
MPH RANGE...GENERALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE
CIRCULATION. BILL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BEFORE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. 
THEREAFTER...BILL COULD BRIEFLY RESTRENGTHEN WHEN IT MOVES DOWN
THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH...30 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN UP ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA WHILE 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.  THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN REGIONS WHICH ARE ALREADY SATURATED
FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 4 AM CDT

...ARKANSAS...
ROGERS 2.1 SE                        4.42                     
BENTONVILLE                          4.27                     
FAYETTEVILLE/SPRINGDALE              4.03                     
HARRISON/BOONE CO. ARPT              3.85                     
DELIGHT 2.2 WNW                      3.74                     
SPRINGDALE 6.4 WSW                   3.31                     
SILOAM SPRINGS/SMITH FIELD           3.24                     
TEXARKANA RGNL ARPT                  2.67                     
EUREKA SPRINGS 4.0 WNW               2.62                     
SPRINGFIELD/CAPITAL ARPT             2.49                     

...ILLINOIS...
COOKS MILL                           5.14                     
SCOTT AFB/BELLEVILLE                 5.01                     
SULLIVAN 3 S                         4.89                     
CARBONDALE/MURPHYSBORO               4.83                     
FLORA                                4.70                     
LAWRENCEVILLE-VINCENNES INTL AP      4.63                     
ALLENVILLE 1 S                       4.50                     
ELBURN                               4.45                     
MATTOON/CHARLESTON                   4.23                     
SOUTH CAROL STREAM                   4.11                     
BATAVIA                              3.87                     
CAHOKIA/ST. LOUIS                    3.58                     
ROCHELLE                             3.43                     
MANHATTAN 5 SSE                      3.26                     
OAK PARK 1 SE                        3.07                     
DIXON 2 SW                           2.64                     
NEWTON                               2.58                     
TUSCOLA                              2.29                     
NORTH AURORA 2 E                     2.23                     
STE. MARIE                           2.11                     

...INDIANA...
GRISSOM AFB/PERU                     6.72                     
EVANSVILLE RGNL ARPT                 5.27                     
SANDBORN                             4.96                     
BLOOMINGTON/MONROE CO. ARPT          4.87                     
BICKNELL                             4.67                     
FORT WAYNE/BAER FIELD                4.53                     
MOROCCO                              3.70                     
MUNCIE/JOHNSON FIELD                 3.16                     
NEW ROSS 2 E                         2.87                     
INDIANAPOLIS INTL ARPT               2.57                     
ANDERSON 5 NW                        2.30                     
TERRE HAUTE/HULMAN RGNL ARPT         2.12                     
CHESTERTON                           1.70                     

...KANSAS...
COFFEYVILLE MUNI ARPT                3.64                     
OLATHE/JOHNSON                       1.79                     
COLLYER 2.1 SE                       1.45                     

...KENTUCKY...
HENDERSON CITY                       3.54                     
FRANKFORT/CAPITAL CITY ARPT          2.12                     
JACKSON/J. CARROLL                   1.96                     
PADUCAH/BARKLEY                      1.90                     
LEXINGTON/BLUE GRASS FIELD           1.14                     

...LOUISIANA...
SHREVEPORT RGNL ARPT                 4.79                     
BOSSIER CITY 6.7 NNW                 3.84                     
SHREVEPORT 5.3 SSE                   2.42                     
PLAIN DEALING 3.0 ESE                2.13                     
RUSTON 1.6 NW                        1.85                     

...MISSOURI...
FORDLAND 4 WNW                       8.25                     
BATTLEFIELD                          7.93                     
OZARK 3 N                            7.54                     
SPOKANE 3 SE                         7.00                     
HARTVILLE 1 E                        6.90                     
HIGHLANDVILLE                        6.75                     
SEYMOUR                              6.20                     
SPRINGFIELD 7 E                      6.00                     
MARSHFIELD 3.6 S                     5.48                     
HURLEY 8 ENE                         5.00                     
EXETER                               5.00                     
COMPETITION                          5.00                     
ROGERSVILLE                          4.80                     
NIXA 2.7 SSW                         4.72                     
LINDEN 2 NE                          4.60                     
NIANGUA                              4.37                     
FORNEY AAF/FORT LEONARDWOOD          4.24                     
SOUTH SPRINGFIELD                    3.10                     
COLUMBIA RGNL ARPT                   2.94                     
JOPLIN RGNL ARPT                     2.60                     
JEFFERSON CITY ARPT                  2.27                     

...OHIO...
LIMA/ALLEN CO. APRT                  5.11                     
AKRON-CANTON REGIONAL ARPT           3.51                     
WILMINGTON/CINCINNATI WFO            3.46                     
DAYTON/JAMES M COX AIRPORT           3.01                     
CINCINNATI (ASOS)                    2.90                     

...OKLAHOMA...
HEALDTON 3 E                        12.53                     
NEWPORT                             11.52                     
BURNEYVILLE                         10.09                     
SULPHUR 2.5 WSW                      8.63                     
RINGLING                             8.27                     
PAULS VALLEY MUNI APRT               7.35                     
SULPHUR                              7.09                     
MACOMB 5.2 ESE                       5.82                     
MARIETTA 2.8 SW                      5.57                     
ADA 0.3 NNW                          5.45                     
WEWOKA 7.4 NNW                       5.30                     
NORMAN 3.4 SE                        3.61                     
OKLAHOMA CITY 11.5 S                 2.64                     
MUSKOGEE/DAVIS FIELD AIRPORT         2.55                     
BARTLESVILLE MUNI ARPT               1.51                     

...TEXAS...
MONTAGUE                            12.50                     
GANADO 1.5 W                        11.77                     
KIRBYVILLE 1.5 SE                    9.51                     
SEALY 0.3 WNW                        9.17                     
ALICE INTL ARPT                      9.03                     
EL CAMPO 0.5 ENE                     8.57                     
VICTORIA 9 ESE                       7.73                     
ROCKPORT 1.3 WSW                     7.51                     
MANOR 4.7 WSW                        7.30                     
WF SAN JACINTO                       7.06                     
LUFKIN/ANGELINA CO ARPT              6.98                     
NAVASOTA 8 SE                        6.73                     
FLOUR BLUFF 7 SW                     6.59                     
ARANSAS PASS 1 SSE                   6.46                     
SAN FELIPE 1.0 WNW                   6.15                     
CORPUS CHRISTI                       6.14                     
AUSTIN 4.2 ESE                       5.80                     
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT                2.91                     
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL             2.51                     
FORT WORTH NAS                       2.34                     


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER RUBIN-OSTER

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 20/0900Z 37.8N 87.1W
12HR VT 20/1800Z 38.5N 84.5W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 21/0600Z 39.0N 78.3W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 21/1800Z 40.1N 73.5W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 22/0600Z 42.0N 66.9W...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 23/0600Z 44.8N 57.9W...EXTRATROPICAL

Does this mean another tropical critter might develop in the GOMEX?

[srainhoutx]

Paul, there is a big pattern change coming where a heat Ridge builds across the NW and Western United States and the very hot temperatures that have plagued the SE US will cool off and become much more unsettled as the Polar front remains very far South than we typically see in late June across the Mid West into the Ohio River Valley. Watch for strong to severe storms developing across the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley and on East into the Mid Atlantic. We could see a stalled boundary across Eastern portions of Texas which would tend to favor increasing showers and thunderstorm chances dropping SE as a NW flow aloft becomes established. No tropical troubles are seen at this time for the West/NW Gulf of Mexico at this time. We may see an uptick in tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific as we end June and begin July...

[unome]

wow, I totally missed this !

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/reports/i ... e=20150620

"2015/06/20 2000 Z UNK 4 ENE TOMBALL HARRIS TX 30.11 -95.55 0 0 Map
NUMEROUS TREES DOWN... AT LEAST ONE BUILDING DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO HOMES.
[SOURCE: PUBLIC; CWA: HGX ] "

http://www.khou.com/story/weather/2015/ ... /29060941/

[srainhoutx]

The early work week weather pattern appears fairly straightforward with a typical summer pattern across the Region except for West and South Central Texas where a 700mb trough remains and the threat of heavy rainfall continues until at least Tuesday when that feature slips further W into Mexico beneath a building Great Basin ridge. Most of Texas should be under the influence of the SE Ridge before chances in the upper level pattern across the United States begins to develop.

The latter half of the week shows a pattern change across the Nation as a stout upper ridge develops across the Western United States and a very deep trough develops across the Eastern US. Temperatures in the Pacific Northwest could soar to near record territory with daytime highs nearing the Century mark across inland locations of Washington, Oregon, Nevada and California. The fly in the ointment will be the influence of a shortwave currently over the Gulf of Alaska that rides up and over the Western Ridge into Canada, then begins to drop SE into the Upper Plains/Great Lakes region pushing a rather unusual late June cold front S as the Eastern trough deepens. The global guidance is attempting to resolve this front and exactly where it will pull up stationary. The GFS is further N across the Central Plains while the European model suggests that frontal boundary may pass through the Dallas/Ft Worth area and pull up stationary across portions of Central and Eastern Texas next weekend. A NW flow aloft supports the idea that the frontal boundary may drop a bit further S as well as teleconnection indices expected to develop later this week. If the front does make it into Eastern Texas expect rain and storm chances to increase next weekend with the potential of strong to possibly severe thunderstorm development and the potential of nightly developing Mesoscale Convective Systems possible that move SE into SE Texas and Louisiana. We will have to see just how things play out during the work week, but it does appear we may enter another active weather pattern by next weekend. Expect day to day changes in the forecast throughout this coming week as the guidance attempts to resolve this pattern. Meanwhile hot muggy weather will be the theme for the next several days as we dry out from the heavy rainfall of the past several weeks.Expect a 20 to 30% chance of isolated to scattered daytime showers and storms throughout most of the work week.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro and GFS are trending to solution suggesting a rather unusual late June cold front making it into our Region this weekend. Showers and storms accompany this frontal boundary as some rather deep tropical moisture surges N from the Western Caribbean into the Western Gulf as the cold front arrives.

[BlueJay]

Any ideas on how "cold" it may get?

[ticka1]

The 12Z Euro and GFS are trending to solution suggesting a rather unusual late June cold front making it into our Region this weekend. Showers and storms accompany this frontal boundary as some rather deep tropical moisture surges N from the Western Caribbean into the Western Gulf as the cold front arrives.

music to my ears even if all it does is drop the humidity...i like

i am noticing the ling range forecasts are bring rain back into the forecasts. aWe shal see.

[Paul Robison]

Uh, y'all check out the OOZ GFS run at 192 hours

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... =&ps=model

Is that what I think it is?

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise an unusual late June cool front arriving this weekend. It will be worth monitoring exactly where the front pulls up stationary focusing a chance for heavy rainfall Sunday into early next week across portions of SE Texas into Louisiana. The guidance also suggests the tropical wave that has brought to rain to the Caribbean may increase our chances of rainfall as some deeper tropical moisture moves out of the NW Caribbean into the Western Gulf as the front stalls. There are no indications for any tropical development at this time, but it is worth noting that conditions may become more favorable for tropical thunderstorm development as we begin July. But that is for another time and a different Topic...

MJO:

Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave:

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Surface high pressure has built into the region from the east over the last few days finally shutting off rain chances. Break in the sub-tropical ridges to our west and east is resulting in a general height field weakness over SW TX where showers and thunderstorms have been developing.

Ridge to our east centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will be the more dominate and controlling feature through the end of the week as a surge a tropical moisture rotates around this feature and into SE TX on Thursday. Will go with slightly higher rain chances on Thursday 30-40% with activity focused along the seabreeze boundary.

Upper air pattern changes this weekend with a deep trough developing over the eastern US in response to developing ridging over the western US. This upper air trough will send a cool front southward toward the Gulf coast over the weekend. Moisture pools along and ahead of this boundary and expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity Saturday-Monday. Northerly steering flow will result in NE/E TX development along the front moving S/SSW into the region. Such SW moving storms can be fairly strong during the summer months especially it they arrive near peak heating.

Will need to keep an eye on the heavy rainfall potential also as the slow moving frontal boundary will help to focus activity and potential cell training.

Rivers:

Trinity River:
Flooding continues along nearly the entire river from above Dallas to Trinity Bay. Major flooding remains in progress at Liberty and will continue for the next few weeks as upstream flows are passed downstream.

Brazos River:
Flood wave from TS Bill is passing Rosharon this morning and the river will begin a slow fall. The river will remain elevated for the next several weeks as upstream flood control reservoirs begin making releases. Lake Somerville reached a peak elevation of 257.05 ft (+ 19.05 ft) into its flood pool.

San Bernard River:
Flood wave from TS Bill has passed Boling and will reach Sweeney over the next few days. This river is falling at East Bernard and Boling.

Guadelupe River:

The river is above flood stage Bloomington and will remain above flood stage for the next few days.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Update from the Climate Prediction Center suggests we end June and begin July a bit cooler and perhaps with a bit of moisture heading toward the July 4th Holiday period.

[Paul Robison]

Upper air pattern changes this weekend with a deep trough developing over the eastern US in response to developing ridging over the western US. This upper air trough will send a cool front southward toward the Gulf coast over the weekend. Moisture pools along and ahead of this boundary and expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity Saturday-Monday. Northerly steering flow will result in NE/E TX development along the front moving S/SSW into the region. Such SW moving storms can be fairly strong during the summer months especially it they arrive near peak heating.

Will need to keep an eye on the heavy rainfall potential also as the slow moving frontal boundary will help to focus activity and potential cell training.

1. In other words, you don't know if any storms will be strong, it all just depends on when they form, right, Srainhoutex?
2. 18Z GFS run shows no tropical systems heading for the area during week of July 1.

[Rip76]

1. Who knows if storms will be strong, and where this will happen.
Of course it depends on where they form.

2. July 1st is 2 weeks away.

[Paul Robison]

1. Who knows if storms will be strong, and where this will happen.
Of course it depends on where they form.

2. July 1st is 2 weeks away.

Apparently, NWS knows, Rip76. This quote from this afternoon's HGX disco is not encouraging:

THE BAD NEWS IS THAT IF THE TIMING IS RIGHT...SOME SPOTS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

All opinions welcome.

[srainhoutx]

Another typical summer weather day across our Region before moisture slowly increases and heat of the day thunderstorms slowly increase. As we head towards the weekend, showers and storms increase as a rare late June cool front sags south across the Eastern half of Texas into Louisiana. Increased cloud cover and rain chances will bring a reprieve from the high heat indices with temperatures in the mid to upper 80's and nightly lows in the upper 60's to near 70F. That pattern should continue early next week with a deep trough in the Eastern United States and a strong heat ridge across the Western US. The monsoon season begins in earnest across the Desert SW bringing showers and thunderstorms across Arizona and New Mexico. There continues to be some indications that a surge of tropical moisture associated with a tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea arrives in the Western Gulf early next week keeping things somewhat unsettled across Coastal Texas and Louisiana. Daily tropical showers and storms look to continue throughout most of next week as we end June and begin July.

[brooksgarner]

... and as always, when a cold front makes it into the Gulf and stalls there during the hurricane season, one must be aware that unexpected things can happen ...

That said, no models I've seen suggest tropical development associated with this feature ...

[GBinGrimes]

No, Paul, the NWS does not know.

The words "if, some, could and chance" do not imply specific knowledge; only an opinionated and well educated position on what may possibly occur.

Paul, there is a polite, written manner in which to pose questions and discuss topics that you have yet to learn or choose not to employ. You do share some useful information but when reading your posts I cringe at the rudeness in which you publicly write\challenge the board moderators and administrators.

For a public forum, this is about the nicest and friendliest community that I have ever seen.

Please choose to be equally as kind.

1. Who knows if storms will be strong, and where this will happen.
Of course it depends on where they form.

2. July 1st is 2 weeks away.

Apparently, NWS knows, Rip76. This quote from this afternoon's HGX disco is not encouraging:

THE BAD NEWS IS THAT IF THE TIMING IS RIGHT...SOME SPOTS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

All opinions welcome.

[tireman4]

... and as always, when a cold front makes it into the Gulf and stalls there during the hurricane season, one must be aware that unexpected things can happen ...

That said, no models I've seen suggest tropical development associated with this feature ...

This is one of the most interesting seasons I have lived through in awhile. Copious amounts of rain for the area, a tropical storm that moved in a way not expected by anyone or the models, a cold front in late June...what will the the rest of 2015 bring us...hummm

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated surface charts for Day 3 to 7 suggest a stalling frontal boundary along the Upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast. That tends to favor increasing shower and thunderstorm development as we head into the weekend and possibly into early next week as deep tropical moisture from a tropical wave in the NW Caribbean heads NW into the Western Gulf and tangles up with that boundary.