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vci_guy2003 no the arctic air is coming, I was talking about the Storm system and the SE Ridge having an effect on its track

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 18, 2022 9:50 pm vci_guy2003 no the arctic air is coming, I was talking about the Storm system and the SE Ridge having an effect on its track

arctic air because of its shallow nature and how fast it moves, is often underestimated by the models,

You shouldn’t really be concerned about potential qpf over 3+ days out. That’s always going to give the models fits till it’s inside that 3 day window. The main factors to look for right now is the cold air and that looks to be an almost lock right now. We can worry about the precip part later. We need the cold air first and foremost.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 18, 2022 9:50 pm vci_guy2003 no the arctic air is coming, I was talking about the Storm system and the SE Ridge having an effect on its track

*Clears throat* Your post this morning about the ridge was in response to a temperature map that Mcheer posted. Own it

Anyway, just stopped by for a second and y’all are still having the same argument back and forth as earlier today.

As some have posted, we won’t have a good handle on how this will unfold until Tuesday or Wednesday. Until then, the models will be all over the place. All this back and forth is just speculation at this point.

Toodles.

The elm and maple trees are blooming in Montgomery County…

It appears the 12z Euro has delayed the arctic airs arrival until around the 28th, not good when a model delays something, but it also breaks down the SE Ridge and allows the arctic air to spill into SE Texas

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 19, 2022 1:29 pm It appears the 12z Euro has delayed the arctic airs arrival until around the 28th, not good when a model delays something, but it also breaks down the SE Ridge and allows the arctic air to spill into SE Texas

Artic air usually wins out over the SE ridge.

Cpv17 that is true, I just noticed that the Euro doesnt really push the arctic air into SE Texas until around the 28th, wonder why ita delayed the arrival time

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 19, 2022 1:29 pm It appears the 12z Euro has delayed the arctic airs arrival until around the 28th, not good when a model delays something, but it also breaks down the SE Ridge and allows the arctic air to spill into SE Texas

That is what my thinking was that the arctic air wouldn’t arrive until the week of February 28- March 3. Of any disturbance swing in at that time frame, then there is something to talk about. I wouldn’t get my hopes up for this week.

The CPC obviously sees something that the models aren’t seeing.

Cpv17 what do you mean the CPC is seeing something else?

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 19, 2022 4:14 pm Cpv17 what do you mean the CPC is seeing something else?

Cpv17 it does seem that the GEFS (18z run) is colder than its operational run fwiw

The Ensembles are holding onto the SE Ridge midweek but the 18Z run is 2°F colder. We shall see if a trend develops. We're still 4-5 days out.

I am not holding out hope for this week. We need to watch the February 28-March 3 time frame for the cold weather. Precipitation is another story.

Friday and beyond is running colder on 12z CMC, Ensembles.

Gfs is colder this run

12 Z GFS shows some lingering moisture, and maybe just maybe a small window for some wintery mischief

12z GEFS is really cold!

How cold for our area though