Wx Infinity Forums

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 20, 2022 12:12 pm How cold for our area though

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 20, 2022 3:30 pm Cpv17 yeah I just saw a post by someone on facebook comparing the 12z NAM to the 12z Euro temperature maps at hour 84 and its quite a huge difference , maybe another surprise or two in store if the NAM is correct

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 20, 2022 3:55 pm Cpv17 I dont think the HRRR is in range yet since it only goes out 48 hours

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 20, 2022 11:57 am 12z GEFS is really cold!

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 20, 2022 2:08 pm This is your typical case of the globals not handling shallow cold air correctly.

Andrew wrote: ↑Sun Feb 20, 2022 5:27 pm It could be interesting midweek as models continue to show the frontal boundary stalling across the central part of SE Texas. If the GFS is right on Thursday places like College Station could be in the 30s while the Houston area could be in the 70s. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the front does make it a little further south than forecasted. Sometimes models have trouble with the shallowness of these air masses, especially during February where warm air return isn't quite as strong as it is in March and April. Still, something to watch as we head into the middle part of the week, though it does look like the front should make it all the way through the coast by Friday as a secondary shortwave trough tracks east across the Central & Southern plains.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sun Feb 20, 2022 5:32 pm

Andrew wrote: ↑Sun Feb 20, 2022 5:27 pm It could be interesting midweek as models continue to show the frontal boundary stalling across the central part of SE Texas. If the GFS is right on Thursday places like College Station could be in the 30s while the Houston area could be in the 70s. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the front does make it a little further south than forecasted. Sometimes models have trouble with the shallowness of these air masses, especially during February where warm air return isn't quite as strong as it is in March and April. Still, something to watch as we head into the middle part of the week, though it does look like the front should make it all the way through the coast by Friday as a secondary shortwave trough tracks east across the Central & Southern plains.

Yes, I've been expecting a massive temp gradient from NW to SE across the frontal boundary between Waco to CLL to HOU (80°F to 30°F). I expect the cold, shallow air to overperform as usual. Thursday could be interesting indeed.

Euro, CMC, Ensembles have the front blasting through Friday with cold progged to hang around until at least mid-week in early March.