February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[jasons2k]

My forecast low was 36. I’m at 35...

[Andrew]

ECMWF (keep in mind the model has been consistently overestimating temperatures over the last couple of days):

[Cromagnum]

Got up to let the pup out and the wind is howling pretty good right now. It it's suppose to be 20 degrees colder than it is now, it's going to feel mighty cold.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A potentially historic arctic outbreak nears with likely memorable significant impacts and long duration hazardous and challenges

A major winter storm looks to impact nearly all of Texas on Monday resulting to widespread travel disruption and potential for stranded travelers on interstates

Maximum cold weather preparation MUST be completed for this cold outbreak to attempt to mitigate significant infrastructure and property damage

Discussion:

Modified arctic air mass continues to filter into the region off fresh ice cover over central and north Texas where significant impacts occurred yesterday. Freezing temperatures extend from NW of Huntsville to around Brenham and then back toward San Antonio. Light rain and drizzle will continue this morning over the area with some decrease this afternoon (this will be the opportunity for road crew to begin pretreatment operations). No real change in the air mass through Sunday morning with the freezing line moving southward over the area each night and creeping back NW during the day. Will need to keep an eye on where the line pushes each night as areas north of the freezing line could see some minor freezing rain or freezing drizzle on Saturday and Sunday. Will also keep an eye on the next disturbance that will approach the region on Saturday afternoon and evening. Short range models are coming in a bit stronger with this disturbance and that could result in a bit more showers and rain than currently in the forecast for Saturday afternoon and evening and will need to keep a close eye on the freezing line Saturday night for any southward adjustments.

Sunday night-Monday:

“True” arctic air mass builds down the plains and this the region with temperatures falling into the 20’s for most areas. A strong upper level short wave trough will approach from the west late Sunday and induce a surface low over the NW Gulf helping to draw the cold air southward and increasing winds over the area. Precipitation is likely to start Sunday evening and overspread all of the region Sunday night into Monday. Still going with all P-types (freezing rain, sleet, and snow) and it is certainly possible that any one location may see all 3 types on Monday. With surface temperatures falling into the mid 20’s on Monday accumulations are likely. Will hold off another 12-24 hours and take a look at some of the short range guidance today and early Saturday to get an idea of accumulations which will be strongly tied to P-type.

Travel will become nearly impossible over the region Sunday night-Monday and likely extending into Tuesday as precipitation coats and accumulates on all surfaces…including surface streets.

Monday night-Tuesday:

Potentially record cold as skies clear and ice/snow on the ground will result in absolutely impressive cold. Will go with 10’s all areas and 20-25 on the beaches and then 1’s mainly north of HWY 105. This will be extremely damaging temperatures for the area and widespread challenges are likely. Will go with low 10’s north of I-10 in Harris County and mid to upper 10’s over the coastal and southern part of the county. Some locations may near or exceed daily record lows and approach all-time record lows.

Many areas will likely experience between 24-74 hours at or below freezing and the long duration of the sub-freezing temperatures combined with the extreme cold will make impacts long lasting.

Preparations:

I cannot stress enough the need for maximum cold weather preparations to help mitigate significant property damage

Protect all and any exposed pipes, shut off and drain sprinkler systems. Open cabinet doors and closet doors to get as much heat against outside facing wall pipes as possible starting Sunday night. In some cases the best course of action may be to shut off water to a structure and drain pipes overnight when water usage is low to avoid pipes freezing and bursting.

Heavily cover and protect any tropical vegetation, citrus, or vulnerable plants. Given the intensity and depth of the freezing conditions this will likely be a killing freeze for much of the tropical landscape of this region.

Pets and livestock should have proper shelter, feed, and water. Normal water supplies will likely freeze over including stock ponds and lakes.

Persons should plan to limit outdoor exposure Monday and Tuesday as wind chills will be dangerously cold for our region. Prolonged exposure could result in frostbite and hypothermia.

Detailed Forecast:

Today: Cloudy with a 30% chance of mainly morning light rain and drizzle. High in the mid 40’s. N wind 10-15mph

Saturday: Cloudy with a 30% chance of light rain or drizzle. Low in the mid 30’s and high in the mid 40’s. N wind 10-15mph

Sunday: Cloudy with a 40% chance of light rain or drizzle early then a chance of freezing rain and sleet by evening. Temperatures in the low 30’s near sunrise . N wind 15-20mph. Wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s.

Monday: Cloudy with an 80% chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Temperatures steady in the mid 20’s. N wind 15-25mph. Wind chills in the 10’s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a low in the low to mid 10’s and high near 30. N wind 5-10mph. Wind chills 1’s.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a 60% chance of precipitation. Low in the mid 20’s and high in the mid 30’s. NE wind 10-15mph.

[JDsGN]

Woke up to 32* this morning when 37-38 was my predicted low. My weather channel ap seems to just be now casting as the temp has been colder by 5-10 degrees since the front got here.

[TexasBreeze]

34 by Hooks Airport. Colder by a few degrees and almost frozen drizzle, so close.

[Cromagnum]

Man, the area is already primed for when the big cold push comes. Temps in upper 30s and lower 40s and wet until another drop. Usually it's 70 degrees in between fronts around here.

[davidiowx]

33 degrees at my house this morning. Much colder than the forecast low of 38 or so

[jabcwb2]

Supposed to be 36 for the low...woke up to 32 in Tomball.

[srainhoutx]

Inspection of the 06Z shorter range meso guidance suggests waves of freezing rain/sleet traverse the area Friday night into Saturday with additional freezing drizzle Saturday night into Sunday morning before the main event arrives late Sunday night. I am becoming concerned that light layer upon layer of ice accretion will occur setting the stage for a nasty Winter Storm overnight Sunday into Monday. Today is the day to wrap up any preparations!

[Kingwood36]

Nws must of updated because now they are calling for all snow/sleet instead of a "wintery mix" on Monday with freezing rain since lastnight...could be a sign of things to come

[tireman4]

Steve

And you would you not know it, we have a swim meet this weekend from 8 am to 8 pm...ughhh

[srainhoutx]

Don't be surprised to see some Winter Watches hoisted this afternoon across the Region. Folks, I cannot emphasize enough to Stay off the Roads once the freezing precipitation starts. Yesterday morning was proof enough up in Ft Worth that a very thin layer of Black Ice is deadly on bridges/overpasses/flyovers.

[Cromagnum]

Made it down to 36 IMBY in Rosharon with blustery winds

[Kingwood36]

Made it down to 36 IMBY in Rosharon with blustery winds

Howdy neighbor! Right down the road from you in Angleton

[MontgomeryCoWx]

30 and frz drizzle right now

[jabcwb2]

Hi Pros, This is sincerely, a very important question. I have heard that 1/4 inch of ice will cause power outages. The line of business for the company I work for is n the medical industry. Do you believe, think, feel the frozen precip will accumulate to that 1/4 inch in and around the city? I am asking because the team will be working all 5 days next week. My concern is the power going out and how long it would be out. Thank you so much for any insight you have!

[txsnowmaker]

NWS now calling for over an inch of snow (all snow) in SW Houston on Monday:

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... headDay=48

[txsnowmaker]

6z GFS:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_15.png

[djmike]

Yup. Woke up to 37 and forecasted low was 42. I still always shave off 5 degrees than what’s forecasted and that still holds true. Cold air is the hardest to pin down temps. Thats why my concern is for many of us that have a forecasted low temp of 17-19. You can bet you will wake up to 12-17 instead. Last day to prep really. Male sure you prep like we are gonna have a temp of 0.

Also...Please please bring those furbabies indoors. This weather is deadly cold and will only get worse from here. City of Beaumont stated the WILL charge folks for animal cruelty! 12-17 degrees with snow and ice is nothing but a death sentence.