Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:00 am
Oh yeah..easy.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:57 am If we get a 1060 plus the modeling will be 5-10 too warm when it’s now cast time.
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Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:07 am
They both have some Gulf moisture to the south, but it is just too suppressed.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:11 am
Still lots of times for better trends. Really need that trough to keep digging towards the Great Basin/4 corner region and slow down.TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:07 am They both have some Gulf moisture to the south, but it is just too suppressed.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:17 am
Not impressed with this ERCOT statement which made zero mention of Houston….
https://www.ercot.com/news/release/2022 ... monitoring
https://www.ercot.com/news/release/2022 ... monitoring
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:18 am
Models are really close to showing a snow event around Christmas.They are producing a coastal trough as the disturbance passes through.We just need the disturbance to come in stronger and less sheared to pull that moisture inland.We may not truly know if we see snow or not until we get within mesoscale models range.Keep in mind we don't want it to be too strong either as that would possibly produce too much warm nosing.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:32 am
GFS has a snowpack all the way to the Red River. We'll have the cold for days. We just need a s/w, trough, or ULL. Anything.don wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:18 am Models are really close to showing a snow event around Christmas.They are producing a coastal trough as the disturbance passes through.We just need the disturbance to come in stronger and less sheared to pull that moisture inland.We may not truly know if we see snow or not until we get within mesoscale models range.Keep in mind we don't want it to be too strong either as that would possibly produce too much warm nosing.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:35 am
Canadian, Ensembles, ICON see a "disturbance in the force" as well.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:36 am
ERCOT sux. It will be 5 degrees in DFW, 25 and below in HOU.txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:17 am Not impressed with this ERCOT statement which made zero mention of Houston….
https://www.ercot.com/news/release/2022 ... monitoring
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:40 am
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:41 am
Okay yeah the models are definitely going in the right direction after everything I’ve seen the past few days. I’m okay with now calling this a trend and I’m encouraged by what I’m seeing.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:55 am
Sleeting again here in angleton
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:01 pm
It’s been doing that here in Wharton/El Campo too off and on all morning.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:07 pm
Really getting a 2004/2009 feel on this. I know both were very different for our given region but I think Texas may be pleasantly surprised with this system.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:20 pm
Pretty bold statement..but I'm starting to agreeMontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:07 pm Really getting a 2004/2009 feel on this. I know both were very different for our given region but I think Texas may be pleasantly surprised with this system.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:27 pm
what happened in 2004/2009? I definitely wasnt old enough to remember that lol
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:31 pm
I may get a Blizzard next week directly after the Blue Norther. 
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:32 pm
2004 was the Christmas Eve snow and 2009 was snow alsoStratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:27 pm what happened in 2004/2009? I definitely wasnt old enough to remember that lol
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:37 pm
On Christmas Eve 2004, there was a band of about a foot of snow from around Beeville/Goliad area all the way towards Angleton. It snowed all the way down to the beach at South Padre Island.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:27 pm what happened in 2004/2009? I definitely wasnt old enough to remember that lol
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:40 pm
Sharp gradient from that 2004 one. North of 1960 I saw nothing but a few flurries.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:45 pm
I mentioned it already but a good analog for the disturbance is the December 4th snowstorm of 2009.That was such a nice event heavy snow in the middle of the day.Some areas got up to 4 inches.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/04/09 1655Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1645Z KUSSELSON
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
EVENT...CONVECTIVE TAIL DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX...
BAROCLINIC LEAF SNOWS WITH VORT ACROSS CENTRAL TX...
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...DYNAMIC COOLING A BIT STRONGER WITH SUBTROPICAL VORT THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS SE TX AND NOW DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE LOOKING BAND SW TO NE AND JUST INLAND FROM THE SE TX COAST. ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING HAS LOWERED SFC TO 850MB TEMP AND RAIN THAT HAS CHANGED TO SNOW HAS INCRD TO MODERATE/LOCALLY HVY ALONG
CONVECTIVE BAND. MOST CONCERNED NEXT 1-2HRS ACROSS E BEE/E GOLIAD COUNTY TO WHARTON COUNTY THRU MID AFTERNOON TO THE CENTRAL TO N HARRIS COUNTY THRU EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONTGOMERY COUNTY FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND WITHIN ENOUGH TRAINING CELLS THAT MAX SNOW RATES COULD REACH 0.5"-1.0"/HR ON GRASSY SURFACES THRU AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. TRICKY AS THIS WHOLE AREA SHIFTS EAST THRU LA AS DYNAMIC COOLING WILL DICTATE THE CHANGEOVER AND AMOUNT OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND N LA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HRS.
OUT WEST IN THE CENTRAL TX AREA AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND W CENTRAL TX...MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST AND NE THRU NE TX AND CONCERN FOR POINTS FROM NE TX EASTWARD WILL BE HOW MUCH CONTRIBUTION DEEP MOISTURE COMING NORTH/NE FROM TX COAST WILL HAVE IN STARTING TO PRODUCE ANY MODERATE SNOWS BEFORE THE
PASSAGE OF THE WEST CENTRAL TX SHORT WAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...