January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[wxman666]

NAM suggests wintry weather across N LA. Some inpressive rainfall totals across TX. We need all the help in our drought situation that we can get, IMO.

01082011 00Z nam_p60_060l.gif

01082011 00Z NAM_221_2011010800_F60_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Holy cow! That is one heck of a QPF!!

[jabcwb2]

NAM suggests wintry weather across N LA. Some inpressive rainfall totals across TX. We need all the help in our drought situation that we can get, IMO.

01082011 00Z nam_p60_060l.gif

01082011 00Z NAM_221_2011010800_F60_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Holy cow! That is one heck of a QPF!!

Whaaaa.....?

[weatherguy425]

Run just gettin' going... first signs of rain in STX at hour 18...

[Ptarmigan]

If we get heavy rain, than this January is starting to remind me of January 1989. I remember January 18, 1989, we had heavy rain and flooding. Some areas saw up to 5 inches of rain that time. This was during a La Nina Winter and a strong one, like right now.

[weatherguy425]

GFS brings snow well into Texas...

Hr.42


Hr.48
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif

[srainhoutx]

GFS brings snow well into Texas...

Hr.42


Hr.48
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif

01082011 00Z GFS_3_2011010800_F42_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

01082011 00Z GFS_3_2011010800_F45_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

01082011 00Z GFS_3_2011010800_F48_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

[sambucol]

GFS brings snow well into Texas...

What are the temps looking like? Colder?

[weatherguy425]

Little colder I believe, also note the building heights all the way up to Northern Canada

[weatherguy425]

and the cld air hits a brick wall -_-

[Ptarmigan]

Those computer models have a hard time with Arctic blasts.

[weatherguy425]

Not that it really matters but starting to see some 1030+ pressure readings in canada's northwest territories

[wxman666]

GFS brings snow well into Texas...

Hr.42
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042s.gif

Hr.48
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif

Weather guy, can you please explain to me how to read the difference between snow and rain on the QPF?

[weatherguy425]

weatherguy425 wrote:
GFS brings snow well into Texas...

Hr.42


Hr.48
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif

Weather guy, can you please explain to me how to read the difference between snow and rain on the QPF?

As far as that graphic goes there is no distinction between rai nand frozen precip. you have to go another 6 hours ahead (next slide) to see where the freezing line is at the point at which the precip is actually falling. its a bit hard for me to explai nit well. but there is a sticky explaining it all on the weather forum homepage...

[wxman666]

Oh ok thanks.

[Ptarmigan]

weatherguy425 wrote:
GFS brings snow well into Texas...

Hr.42


Hr.48
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif

Weather guy, can you please explain to me how to read the difference between snow and rain on the QPF?

As far as that graphic goes there is no distinction between rai nand frozen precip. you have to go another 6 hours ahead (next slide) to see where the freezing line is at the point at which the precip is actually falling. its a bit hard for me to explai nit well. but there is a sticky explaining it all on the weather forum homepage...

For snow to happen, it has to be 0 C at 5,000 feet and +10,000 feet. The cold air has to be deep.

[wxman666]

Day 1 Update for Saturday from the SPC...


...SRN TX...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR HAS BEGUN RETURNING THROUGH S TX...AND
LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY CHARACTERIZE THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR TODAY. THE RETURNING GULF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED ABOVE THE
POLAR FRONT AND BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL TX. WEAK SBCAPE
WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT
FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DESTABILIZATION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
POLAR FRONT TONIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
OVER DEEP S TX WHERE SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG EWD
ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS. IN THE DEEP S TX WARM SECTOR...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS...BUT THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
PRECLUDES MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

[wxman666]

Has anybody else noticed that sleet is being forecast as far south as Alexandria, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...and Newton, TX? That's rather interesting.

[mwbwhorton]

the storm system late weekend looks stronger to me with gale watch in effect along the Louisiana coast also the 4-8 inches i mentioned still looks good for my area as im currently in a winter storm watch....Also LSU 44 A&M 27 Geaux Tigers! some areas near by will see crippling ice that will bring trees and powerlines down overall a bad setup im hoping to see all snow but all types of winter precip look likely.....

[wxman666]

the storm system late weekend looks stronger to me with gale watch in effect along the Louisiana coast also the 4-8 inches i mentioned still looks good for my area as im currently in a winter storm watch....Also LSU 44 A&M 27 Geaux Tigers! some areas near by will see crippling ice that will bring trees and powerlines down overall a bad setup im hoping to see all snow but all types of winter precip look likely.....

Sounds rough, hope everyone stays safe over there. Needless to say, we are watching this system very closely here in Houston.

[mwbwhorton]

will continue to post during storm if im able (electricity) with updates precip should start about this time tommorrow night
wet bulb temps are going to be important and thunder appears likely too....