August 2020:

[Andrew]

Hard to ignore back to back model runs from the ECMWF but it's pretty amazing the cluster of models we have near the border and the ECMWF so far east. Honestly don't know what to think at this point.

[Texaspirate11]

I'm so confused I feel like I need a scorecard with all the info coming out and constant changing. I feel for the NHC

[vci_guy2003]

Eric Berger says there are reliable models showing landfall from north of Corpus through most of Louisiana. Where are the ones showing Texas?

[Scott747]

Track changes are only made when the full advisories come out at 4 and 10. Intermediate advisories are only a continuation from the previous advisory with the new storm plot.

[Scott747]

If you didn't know any better you would think the location of Laura is to the NE of Jamaica over water. Even the entire envelope of the system looks that way.

[cperk]

Hard to ignore back to back model runs from the ECMWF but it's pretty amazing the cluster of models we have near the border and the ECMWF so far east. Honestly don't know what to think at this point.

Andrew I think you speak for the forum this is crazy.

[sau27]

18z EPS very clear that members that stay south of southern coast of Cuba end up between Matagorda and Galveston.

[Andrew]

If you didn't know any better you would think the location of Laura is to the NE of Jamaica over water. Even the entire envelope of the system looks that way.

I agree with Levi that the MLC is tilted away from the LLC that is over land. It will be interesting to see if the LLC tries to tuck south.

[cperk]

Can’t wait to read the 10pm discussion.

[Andrew]

Eric Berger says there are reliable models showing landfall from north of Corpus through most of Louisiana. Where are the ones showing Texas?

The GFS, HMON, HWRF, and UKMET (at the border) show a texas landfall. The ECMWF and CMC show LA.

[tireman4]

The Euro has whiffed before...lol

[Stormlover2020]

18z EPS very clear that members that stay south of southern coast of Cuba end up between Matagorda and Galveston.

Got a pic

[tireman4]

Travis Herzog, in his 5 pm Facebook update, stated an insider at the NHC said the UKMET has been the best performer this year

[sau27]

18z EPS very clear that members that stay south of southern coast of Cuba end up between Matagorda and Galveston.

Got a pic

[djmike]

Laura: so will they change the track east you think or leave as is for now so they dont keep doing the wiper effect with the cone? Or even more west according to recent other models?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

They won’t do anything until she leaves Cuba, IMO

[sau27]

They won’t do anything until she leaves Cuba, IMO

Agreed. There has not been enough model movement to warrant a shift right now.

[jasons2k]

18z EPS very clear that members that stay south of southern coast of Cuba end up between Matagorda and Galveston.

And the stronger ones, too. The faster Laura becomes a Hurricane, the further SW she goes in those runs.

[bdog38]

skimming the coastline... right down I10 west. taking Covid19 with it.

[djmike]

skimming the coastline... right down I10 west. taking Covid19 with it.

Marco?