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Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:01 pm
by Cromagnum
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1122 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235>238-300-313-121930-
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-
Waller-Inland Harris-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-
Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-
Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton,
Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston,
Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham,
Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton,
Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead,
Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, El Campo, Wharton,
Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony,
Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton,
League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, and Baytown
1122 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

Three winter storm complexes will move through the region.

The first of the 3 systems will be arriving early Saturday evening
and overnight. Near freezing temperatures will be in place with a
threat of freezing rain and sleet. Precipitation amounts should
be light but even so icy roads will be issue especially along and
north of a line from Bellville to Conroe to Livingston.

The second system is likely to bring record-setting cold to the
region.

* Bitterly cold air will be moving into the region behind an
Arctic cold front Sunday night into Monday morning. Temperatures
will abruptly plummet below freezing with strong gusty northerly
winds.

* Freezing rain changing over to snow is likely with this system.

* Prolonged periods of freezing temperatures are expected with low
temperatures Tuesday morning 5 to 15 degrees.

* The combination of both the cold temperatures and winter
precipitation have the potential to significantly impact life and
property.

* Travel will be severely impacted by hazardous icy and snowy road
conditions. Sporadic power outages will be a possibility. Pipes
and sprinkler systems may burst if not properly cared for in
advance. Do so now!

* You should plan to stay put for at least a day given where you
are Sunday night because travel may be extremely hazardous
Monday.

* Hypothermia will be a possibility for those not dressed
appropriately. Brutally cold wind chill readings of -7 to 10
degrees will be likely Monday through Tuesday morning.

* Remember the 4 P`s: pipes, people, pets and plants. In
addition, be aware of space heater dangers if not properly
placed/used.

The third system arrives sometime Wednesday and could bring
another round of freezing rain or snow the region and continuing
the cold weather though not as cold as Monday night and Tuesday
morning it will continue the winter hazards. Confidence on timing
and impacts is lower on this system given the potential for an
extensive snow cover to be present across the Southern United
States and the potential feedback into the third system.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:10 pm
by Cpv17
Cromagnum wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:01 pm SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1122 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235>238-300-313-121930-
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-
Waller-Inland Harris-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-
Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-
Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton,
Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston,
Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham,
Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton,
Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead,
Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, El Campo, Wharton,
Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony,
Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton,
League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, and Baytown
1122 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

Three winter storm complexes will move through the region.

The first of the 3 systems will be arriving early Saturday evening
and overnight. Near freezing temperatures will be in place with a
threat of freezing rain and sleet. Precipitation amounts should
be light but even so icy roads will be issue especially along and
north of a line from Bellville to Conroe to Livingston.

The second system is likely to bring record-setting cold to the
region.

* Bitterly cold air will be moving into the region behind an
Arctic cold front Sunday night into Monday morning. Temperatures
will abruptly plummet below freezing with strong gusty northerly
winds.

* Freezing rain changing over to snow is likely with this system.

* Prolonged periods of freezing temperatures are expected with low
temperatures Tuesday morning 5 to 15 degrees.

* The combination of both the cold temperatures and winter
precipitation have the potential to significantly impact life and
property.

* Travel will be severely impacted by hazardous icy and snowy road
conditions. Sporadic power outages will be a possibility. Pipes
and sprinkler systems may burst if not properly cared for in
advance. Do so now!

* You should plan to stay put for at least a day given where you
are Sunday night because travel may be extremely hazardous
Monday.

* Hypothermia will be a possibility for those not dressed
appropriately. Brutally cold wind chill readings of -7 to 10
degrees will be likely Monday through Tuesday morning.

* Remember the 4 P`s: pipes, people, pets and plants. In
addition, be aware of space heater dangers if not properly
placed/used.

The third system arrives sometime Wednesday and could bring
another round of freezing rain or snow the region and continuing
the cold weather though not as cold as Monday night and Tuesday
morning it will continue the winter hazards. Confidence on timing
and impacts is lower on this system given the potential for an
extensive snow cover to be present across the Southern United
States and the potential feedback into the third system.
Thanks Cro. If this hasn’t grabbed your attention yet, that should definitely get some attention. Unbelievable wording in that statement.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:11 pm
by Kingwood36
Things are about to get real

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:49 pm
by txsnowmaker
Snow is on the way for Houston. Ch. 11 keeps it in the forecast not only for Monday but for Wednesday and Thursday as well.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KHOUBlake11/ ... 19/photo/1

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:50 pm
by srainhoutx
12Z ECMWF suggests a bit colder with snow from the Monday storm.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:51 pm
by txsnowmaker
It’s happening!

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:56 pm
by txsnowmaker
Oh boy. Shows even more after a Wednesday/Thursday system.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:59 pm
by Kingwood36
srainhoutx wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:50 pm 12Z ECMWF suggests a bit colder with snow from the Monday storm.
Eh...not really impressed with the amounts

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:01 pm
by jerryh421
srainhoutx wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:50 pm 12Z ECMWF suggests a bit colder with snow from the Monday storm.
Does this also include sleet totals? Thanks!

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:09 pm
by Cpv17
Kingwood36 wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:59 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:50 pm 12Z ECMWF suggests a bit colder with snow from the Monday storm.
Eh...not really impressed with the amounts
It looks to me like it’s trending south though on each passing run. And keep in mind the Euro has been doing pretty horrible with temps so you can probably expect temps to be even colder which could lead to even more snow.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:13 pm
by Cpv17
Y’all just wait for the 12z eps map to come out here shortly. Bet it’s gonna look pretty nice!

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:13 pm
by txsnowmaker
Kingwood36 wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:59 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:50 pm 12Z ECMWF suggests a bit colder with snow from the Monday storm.
Eh...not really impressed with the amounts
Guess it depends where in the viewing area you are. I’m in SW Houston and am impressed.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:30 pm
by DoctorMu
txsnowmaker wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:13 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:59 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:50 pm 12Z ECMWF suggests a bit colder with snow from the Monday storm.
Eh...not really impressed with the amounts
Guess it depends where in the viewing area you are. I’m in SW Houston and am impressed.

I'm impressed enough. The cold has been outperforming predictions over the last 4 days.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:34 pm
by DoctorMu
12Z NAM
(includes sleet)

Image

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:36 pm
by DoctorMu
12z ICON (true snow)

Image

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:40 pm
by Kingwood36
DoctorMu wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:36 pm 12z ICON (true snow)

Image
Icon isn't giving us jack lol

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:41 pm
by Stormlover2020
Icon isn’t good, just look at the temps about the only good!!

Icon doesn’t include ice and sleet

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:45 pm
by txsnowmaker
Icon is off. There will be snow in Houston.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:46 pm
by TXWeatherMan
Kingwood36 wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:40 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:36 pm 12z ICON (true snow)

Image
Icon isn't giving us jack lol
That’s because it doesn’t include ice and sleet which is mainly what people south of I-10 will see.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Wx Likely

Posted: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:50 pm
by Kingwood36
TXWeatherMan wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:46 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:40 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:36 pm 12z ICON (true snow)

Image
Icon isn't giving us jack lol
That’s because it doesn’t include ice and sleet which is mainly what people south of I-10 will see.
I dont understand how that's all we will see when the air will be jist as cold as everywhere else