Wx Infinity Forums

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:33 pm**

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:26 pm Don’t look at what Bastardi is saying

*Some ingredients are certainly there for rapid intensification similar to other Gulf storms of the past 4-5 years.

Shear from the northeast Pacific (“Nora”) *could limit it a bit. I guess we’ll see.

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:36 pm**

I hesitate to post because it’s not unusual for him to try to be one of the first to call for the worst case but he often gets burned. Take it with a grain of salt.

Says this storm could be in the same “genre” as Laura, Harvey and Micheal = intense cyclones reaching peak intensity during landfall.

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:43 pm**

Well if not mistaken he was pretty tight on those storms as well as Ike and Rita and Katrina. Obviously the guy likes to run his flags up but there is a reason he has a lot of big energy clients. That said I know he is not infallible by any stretch but his words should be processed…love him, like him or hate him he is a talented guy. JMO

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:51 pm**

Full EPS package will be out on free sites within the next 20 minutes. Again, no big changes or anything to hang the hat on here... just more data at this point.

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:51 pm**

CRASHWX wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:43 pm Well if not mistaken he was pretty tight on those storms as well as Ike and Rita and Katrina. Obviously the guy likes to run his flags up but there is a reason he has a lot of big energy clients. That said I know he is not infallible by any stretch but his words should be processed…love him, like him or hate him he is a talented guy. JMO

I used to communicate with him on a regular basis back in the late 90’s, early 2000’s before he even started his “Long Ranger” columns. At one time that was even free access. I’d send him winter storm observations when I lived up in the Metroplex. Then like a lot of people, we have both gotten busy.

He’s not a bad forecaster but is controversial for being outspoken and sometimes hyping the worst-case scenario. This can lead to him to suffering from confirmation bias and hanging-on way too long to a solution when it’s pretty obvious it’s not going to work out that way.

I’m still waiting for Rita to come straight up I-45 with Cat. 3 winds all the way to Conroe.

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:58 pm**

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:36 pm I hesitate to post because it’s not unusual for him to try to be one of the first to call for the worst case but he often gets burned. Take it with a grain of salt.

Says this storm could be in the same “genre” as Laura, Harvey and Micheal = intense cyclones reaching peak intensity during landfall.

Unfortunately though, he could be correct about the idea of this being an intensifying cyclone at landfall. It looks like the closer this gets to landfall, the more favorable conditions become for RI on most models.

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:59 pm**

18z hurricane model guidance runs

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:59 pm**

Yeah I have been following him (dating back to KTRH radio days) for 30+ years. He's a combination of weather expertise and entertainment for the uninformed. He can be a hypemaster... but when he says to evacuate the platforms, the oil companies do it. Which is expensive for them to do.
And if he'd made frequent bad calls over the years, they would have fired him (and Accuweather and now Weatherbell).
Prepare as if this will be a bad one.

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:03 pm**

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:51 pm
CRASHWX wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:43 pm Well if not mistaken he was pretty tight on those storms as well as Ike and Rita and Katrina. Obviously the guy likes to run his flags up but there is a reason he has a lot of big energy clients. That said I know he is not infallible by any stretch but his words should be processed…love him, like him or hate him he is a talented guy. JMO
I used to communicate with him on a regular basis back in the late 90’s, early 2000’s before he even started his “Long Ranger” columns. At one time that was even free access. I’d send him winter storm observations when I lived up in the Metroplex. Then like a lot of people, we have both gotten busy.

He’s not a bad forecaster but is controversial for being outspoken and sometimes hyping the worst-case scenario. This can lead to him to suffering from confirmation bias and hanging-on way too long to a solution when it’s pretty obvious it’s not going to work out that way.

I’m still waiting for Rita to come straight up I-45 with Cat. 3 winds all the way to Conroe.

I get it and like I say i just think he can be insightful and should not be dismissed because he is a horn honker! LOL

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:06 pm**

Well here is to Bastardi being wrong because I want NO PART of what he is cooking!

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:11 pm**

Kludge wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:59 pm Yeah I have been following him (dating back to KTRH radio days) for 30+ years. He's a combination of weather expertise and entertainment for the uninformed. He can be a hypemaster... but when he says to evacuate the platforms, the oil companies do it. Which is expensive for them to do.
And if he'd made frequent bad calls over the years, they would have fired him (and Accuweather and now Weatherbell).
Prepare as if this will be a bad one.

Memories flooding back of him and Joe Sobel on KTRH 740 AM. No internet, Twitter, Weather Channel and just our local Channel 2, 11 and 13 Mets and Dr. Neil Frank on the National News. We are getting old Kludge...

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:14 pm**

12Z EURO ensembles, and 18Z tropical models.

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:32 pm**

This POS can go straight into LA or Brownsville. Don't need a storm messing up the first week of CFB , and I certainly don't want power out in Summer.

I can survive below zero with no power... screw heat indices of 100 plus and no power.

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:34 pm**

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:32 pm This POS can go straight into LA or Brownsville. Don't need a storm messing up the first week of CFB , and I certainly don't want power out in Summer.

I can survive below zero with no power... screw heat indices of 100 plus and no power.

Could not agree more! Lol

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:46 pm**

Went ahead and booked a couple of rooms up north.

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:52 pm**

The scary thing for me is that I have heart trouble; blood pressure problems, and on a breathing machine for sleep apnea. No power could be deadly.

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:55 pm**

Current modeling comparison. Certainly subject to change once a CoC forms we get some recon data.

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:56 pm**

CRASHWX wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:34 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:32 pm This POS can go straight into LA or Brownsville. Don't need a storm messing up the first week of CFB , and I certainly don't want power out in Summer.

I can survive below zero with no power... screw heat indices of 100 plus and no power.
Could not agree more! Lol

No. It just needs to be a rain maker for someone. We should not be wishing it on anyone else.

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:02 pm**

Am I wrong? Seems to me this whole direction thing is being controlled by three factors:
1) where the actual low forms and what longitude it moves through the the area of the Yucatán and Cuba…the farther east the more likelihood of it being effected by the combination of the mid-west trough and the weakening ridge. The farther west the trough does not have as much effect and ridge becomes the primary force.
2) ridge stays stronger its a Texas problem ridge weakens and its a LA problem
3) wild card possible effects from pacific system?

What am I missing? I am sure I am missing something important.

Posted: **Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:05 pm**

Influence of the western ridge is also a factor

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