January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Gale Warnings for Coastal and Offshore waters.

[wxman57]

Just got that from Jeff...Geez 50-60 mph winds????
Does this look probable of is it one of those sound the alarm but not much comes of it deals?

Difficult to say at this time, txflagwaver. Everything depends on how the dynamics play out. With that said it is prudent to cover the possibilities, both good and bad regarding what the sensible weather could be.

One thing I know from past experience is that it is VERY hard to get severe storms here between midnight and mid morning.

[srainhoutx]

A bit of house keeping regarding the HGX update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
952 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TODAY BUT COLD AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AND CLOUD COVER ENCROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH WILL LIKELY MAKE UPPER 60S UNREACHABLE. CURRENT TEMP FCST
LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET. WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING AND BUOY035 IS
AT 16 KTS. HAVE ISSUED AN SCEC FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND BUMPED WINDS
UP ALONG THE COAST. TIDES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS EAST WINDS INCREASE TO ALMOST 30 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WILL BE ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF US HIGHWAY 59 FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 MPH. AS FOR WINTER WEATHER...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME
BUT THE NAM 12 DOES SUPPORT SOME TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOUNDINGS
ARE SATURATED FROM 800 MB TO THE SFC BUT STRADDLES THE ZERO
ISOTHERM FROM THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER TO 950 MB. NOT SURE
IF THIS IS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW OR JUST A COLD RAIN. WILL
WAIT FOR OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS BEFORE MAKING OTHER CHANGES. 43

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian (GEM) suggests a big rain and wintry event across TX and points E. That model also suggest the cold air will remain entrenched through 12Z Thursday with an over running event unfolding.

[sambucol]

The 12Z Canadian (GEM) suggests a big rain and wintry event across TX and points E. That model also suggest the cold air will remain entrenched through 12Z Thursday with an over running event unfolding.

Possible snow here in the Houston area?

[biggerbyte]

My take for the day...

Heavy rains for most of S.E. Texas. Some severe potential for areas south.
Then the cold. Areas north of I10 should watch for changes in the forecast, if any, regarding any frozen precip. Stick, or not, it can
not be completely ruled out at this time. Folks north of 105, even more so. You folks in Huntsville, Madisonville, and points east and North should plan for winter weather.

This takes us to next week. Too early to say for sure, but folks that get left out of the winter precip. chances this go round, may get a better chance come mid. week. The cold air will be in place. Then we are watching the possibility of having at least some moisture, along with a system moving across the area to trigger some form of winter precip. More on this Monday and Tuesday.

It is going to be a mixed bag of weather, and an interesting few days ahead.

Stay Tuned..

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian (GEM) suggests a big rain and wintry event across TX and points E. That model also suggest the cold air will remain entrenched through 12Z Thursday with an over running event unfolding.

Possible snow here in the Houston area?

Let's see how everything unfolds. My hunch would be a wintry mix IF it happens at all, but ya never know this far out and this far S.

[wxman57]

Chances of snow here in Houston are remote at best. The precip should end before noon tomorrow with temps in the 40s. Don't count on anything but rain here, folks. The problem later in the week would be increasing warm air advection aloft, together with minimal moisture while the cold surface air is in place.

[tireman4]

Thank you wxman57 for your reply. Its greatly appreciated. I just texted the info to my hubby.

You're welcome. We could see a few light sprinkles in spots prior to midnight this evening, but it looks like the real rain starts after 3am.

Well, heading out on our bikes to Discovery Green now. They're having an ice sculpting event there today.
http://www.discoverygreen.com/ebevents/event/37924522/

Oh my gosh. You will see ice. Tee Hee

[sambucol]

Chances of snow here in Houston are remote at best.

A remote chance is fine with me! I'll take it

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in N TX, FWD has just updated...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.AVIATION...
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS AND THE LEVEL
OF UNCERTAINTY NEEDS TO BE STRESSED. POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SE AZ AND IS MOVING EASTWARD. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM VFR CLOUD BASES BEGINNING
AROUND 4Z IN WACO AND 8Z FOR THE METROPLEX. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND COOL...CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL LOWER QUICKLY.
MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND 10 OR 11Z AND IFR SHORTLY AFTER.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IN THE METROPLEX
AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF RASN AFTER 15Z AND WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AFTER 17Z. THIS FORECAST IS ALL DEPENDENT
ON A THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND AS OF
NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES WERE
TO NUDGE WARMER BY JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES...THE THE PRECIP TYPE
WOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID. GIVEN HOW MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM...THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT IS
THERE AND WANTED TO GET AS MUCH LEAD TIME IN THE TAF PACKAGE.
FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL LIKELY TWEAK THE TIMING AND INTENSITY...OR
COULD EVEN TAKE IT COMPLETELY OUT IF THE THERMAL PROFILES WERE TO
WARM.

[tireman4]

As much as I respect Wxman 57 ( and I do..also respect for cyclists from a runner), the NWS still is hedging their bets on this one.....or am I wrong?

AS FOR WINTER WEATHER...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME
BUT THE NAM 12 DOES SUPPORT SOME TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOUNDINGS
ARE SATURATED FROM 800 MB TO THE SFC BUT STRADDLES THE ZERO
ISOTHERM FROM THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER TO 950 MB. NOT SURE
IF THIS IS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW OR JUST A COLD RAIN. WILL
WAIT FOR OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS BEFORE MAKING OTHER CHANGES. 43

[wxman666]

As much as I respect Wxman 57 ( and I do..also respect for cyclists from a runner), the NWS still is hedging their bets on this one.....or am I wrong?

AS FOR WINTER WEATHER...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME
BUT THE NAM 12 DOES SUPPORT SOME TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOUNDINGS
ARE SATURATED FROM 800 MB TO THE SFC BUT STRADDLES THE ZERO
ISOTHERM FROM THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER TO 950 MB. NOT SURE
IF THIS IS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW OR JUST A COLD RAIN. WILL
WAIT FOR OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS BEFORE MAKING OTHER CHANGES. 43

Sounds like a pretty big "Bear Watch" to me. ;P HGX will also be issuing Coastal Flood and Wind Advisories, likely with the afternoon update, as they have confirmed in the late morning update.

[srainhoutx]

Nice catch by EWX on the slowing trend of the Upper Low and the possible impacts regarding P types if that trend contniues...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1142 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.UPDATE...
CONTINUED SUBTLE DEEPENING AND SLOWING TREND OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING SOUTH TX WARRANTED A FEW CHANGES TO
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. COASTAL SURFACE LOW FOR SUNDAY
MORNING APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER...BUT HIGHER PRESSURES
DRAWING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NE SUGGEST STRONGER WINDS OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND LOWER RH VALUES AND MIN TEMPS TONIGHT OVER
NE COUNTIES. REST OF MORNING PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL MONITOR
THE DRYING TRENDS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPIATION OVER OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES IN LATER PERIODS.

[srainhoutx]

FWD Extends WSW futher W...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1159 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

TXZ093-102>104-117>119-131>134-090200-
/O.EXB.KFWD.WS.A.0001.110109T0900Z-110110T0600Z/
GRAYSON-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...
GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...
WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS

1159 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE EAST TODAY AND AFFECT NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD. AS THE STORM SYSTEM
CROSSES NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A VERY FLUID SITUATION AND MANY
FACTORS MAY CHANGE THE FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT IF
TEMPERATURES WERE TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...NO SNOW WOULD FALL IN
AND AROUND THE METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR
TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW MAY
FALL OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PORTIONS OR ALL OF THIS WATCH COULD BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAINS SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY ARE
NOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
PERSONS WITH PLANNED TRAVEL ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
INTO LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Euro suggests a potent Winter Storm offering both heavy rain and wintry weather across parts the Lone Star State.

[wxman666]

As for D/FW winter storm watch....just saw that. Looks pretty significant up there.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a bit strong Upper Level disturbance passing over TX late Wednesday/early Thursday. That model suggests some light precip and borderline temps concerning wintry weather.

[wxman666]

9:55 AM Update from SPC....

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTH TX FOR LATE TONIGHT SUGGEST
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING SEVERE STORMS INVOLVES THE FORECAST OF SOME REMNANT
CAPPING THAT MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO ALONG OR NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT. IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN FORM SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...A GREATER SEVERE THREAT /WIND DAMAGE OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO/
WOULD BE REALIZED. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED IN LATER
UPDATES.

[srainhoutx]

Moisture starting to stream in from the W as well as from the Gulf in S TX and near Victoria...