January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[redneckweather]

It looks like snow accumulations COULD be close to me so I'm going to get on the road and find it but not sure which way I should go. 2 hours is max from my front door. Maybe I should stay home and hope for the best? Nawwwww, I did that in 2004, 2008, 2009 and 2010 and nothing.

[TexasBreeze]

Waiting at your house for snow would be a big no no! If you want snow go northeast lufkin and ne from there!

[Ptarmigan]

This should be an interesting night.

[wxman666]

Waiting at your house for snow would be a big no no! If you want snow go northeast lufkin and ne from there!

Lufkin and NE TX canceled their Winter Storm Watch and decreased the chance significantly, which is odd because they were supposed to be one of the hardest hit areas. I can certainly see what little confidence this forecast has.

[redneckweather]

I really don't want to go far since it will be Sunday. I'm thinking Centerville?

[Andrew]

Going to Rockets game so don't have much time but 18z GFS came in a good bit colder and has temps all the way to 27

Code: Select all

FIELD  TEMPERATURE   DEW POINT       PRECIPITATION 
LEVEL      2M             2M                  
UNITS      DEGC            DEGC          MM   
 HR
+  0.     15.5            1.1           0.00
+  3.     15.9            1.8           0.00
+  6.     11.5            2.5           0.00
+  9.     10.1            2.7           0.00
+ 12.      8.3            2.9           0.00
+ 15.      6.5            5.1           3.52
+ 18.      5.1            4.2           4.39
+ 21.      3.1            2.3          14.39
+ 24.      5.1            3.4           6.59
+ 27.      7.9            5.5           0.00
+ 30.      6.5            5.5           0.00
+ 33.      4.6            4.0           0.00
+ 36.      3.7            2.5           0.00
+ 39.      3.4            2.0           0.00
+ 42.      3.2            1.8           0.00
+ 45.      3.7            1.9           0.00
+ 48.      7.9            3.8           0.00
+ 51.     12.0            5.8           0.00
+ 54.      6.6            5.1           0.00
+ 57.      6.0            4.6           0.00
+ 60.      4.1            3.5           0.00
+ 63.      3.1            2.4           0.00
+ 66.      2.2            1.2           0.00
+ 69.      3.2            0.2           0.00
+ 72.      6.2           -0.3           0.00
+ 75.      7.5           -0.5           0.00
+ 78.      3.3           -1.0           0.00
+ 81.      0.9           -1.9           0.00
+ 84.     -1.4           -3.5           0.00
+ 87.     -2.4           -4.9           0.00
+ 90.     -2.4           -5.7           0.00
+ 93.     -0.9           -6.6           0.00
+ 96.      2.6           -6.8           0.00
+ 99.      4.1           -6.4           0.00
+102.      3.7           -5.1           0.00
+105.      3.7           -4.3           0.00
+108.      3.3           -3.9           0.00
+111.      2.7           -3.5           0.00
+114.      2.1           -3.4           0.00
+117.      2.7           -3.6           0.00
+120.      5.6           -2.8           0.00
+123.      7.0           -1.6           0.00
+126.      4.3           -0.8           0.00
+129.      2.5           -1.4           0.00
+132.      2.2           -1.4           0.00
+135.      1.9           -1.7           0.00
+138.      1.7           -2.1           0.00
+141.      4.2           -1.4           0.00

Also we will be in the mid 30's when the gfs has us for precip so it will be close for a lot of the northern counties.

[weatherguy425]

I know that everyone is preoccupied with tonght and tomorrow's storm, but I think its inteeresting (or telling) that many Northen Plain forecasting offices are still gung-ho on another surge of cold air late next week.

[redneckweather]

It looks like watches and warnings are still in place for places in northeast Texas.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/index.html

[srainhoutx]

It looks like watches and warnings are still in place for places in northeast Texas.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/index.html

Shreveport did lift WSW from Lufkin to Nacogdoches. Edit to add: nice virga shower visible across NW Harris County this evening.

[wxman666]

Good SPS and analysis from the Corpus Christi NWS....


IN ADDITION...SOME STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE ANY STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AS STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL MAINLY
BE EAST OF A FREER TO TILDEN LINE.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED FOR MOST
OF THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE OVER A SIGNIFICANT
AREA...AS THE CURRENT FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH
INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MARGINAL.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONG TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH
HEIGHT...KNOWN AS WIND SHEAR...AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL JET...A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST TIME AND
AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM MAINLY
NEAR...SOUTH AND EAST OF A REALITOS TO BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA
LINE...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. NEAR THE COAST...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONCERNING THIS
UPCOMING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT.

[wxman57]

It looks like snow accumulations COULD be close to me so I'm going to get on the road and find it but not sure which way I should go. 2 hours is max from my front door. Maybe I should stay home and hope for the best? Nawwwww, I did that in 2004, 2008, 2009 and 2010 and nothing.

Head NE toward Longview/Tyler. The closer you get to extreme NE TX (Texarkana), the more snow you'll see. Use this map as a guide - head for orange!

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

[srainhoutx]

For our New Orleans neighbors, you folks have a WSW N of the Lake along I-12...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
356 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL CAUSE VERY
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA PRODUCING WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER
THESE AREAS.

LAZ034>039-MSZ068>071-077-090600-
/O.CON.KLIX.WS.A.0001.110109T1800Z-110110T1200Z/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...CENTREVILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE
356 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING: SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS POSSIBLE STARTING
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY. A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET IS EXPECTED
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH TOTAL SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE
WHERE THE INTENSITY OF SLEET BECOMES MODERATE TO HEAVY. ICING
FROM FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH.

* OTHER IMPACTS: TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE DIFFICULT IF NOT
DANGEROUS IN MANY OF THE WATCH AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ELEVATED ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE WORST IMPACTS.

[jabcwb2]

....I hear crickets....

[srainhoutx]

....I hear crickets....

We're waiting on the SPC Update...

[wxman666]

Upgraded to SLIGHT risk....

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[wxman666]

Soundings show that the cap will be eliminated tonight....low level shear is impressive. Tornadoes will be possible along with damaging winds. Stg/Svr tstms should spread inland and up the coast gradually overnight. Stand by for possible MCD's, watches and warnings.

[srainhoutx]

Upgraded to SLIGHT risk....

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Katdaddy]

LOL Srainhoutx! Yep the crickets are listening to weather updates. Many of them lurk on the CH11 weatherboard. Some have been imported from the GoPbi and S2K boards. When it counts they all chirp together and that is priceless.

[wxman666]

Soundings show that the cap will be eliminated tonight....low level shear is impressive. Tornadoes will be possible along with damaging winds. Stg/Svr tstms should spread inland and up the coast gradually overnight. Stand by for possible MCD's, watches and warnings.

Assuming the paid experts at SPC know what they are doing, if you want to be in a watch or warning, you need to head down almost to CRP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 40
SE COT 10 SW NIR 35 SW PSX 55 SSE PSX.

I agree based on the current outlook. Though I will be interested to see how it develops...given KHOU's microcast in Mario Gomez's forecast...as well as HGX's HWO.

[srainhoutx]

LOL Srainhoutx! Yep the crickets are listening to weather updates. Many of them lurk on the CH11 weatherboard. Some have been imported from the GoPbi and S2K boards. When it counts they all chirp together and that is priceless.

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