December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011

[unome]

the latest NWS Dallas Multimedia Weather Briefing: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/fwd/12032 ... layer.html

weather - it's a "fluid" thing

[jeff]

I am just fine with NWS using model forecasting, I mean I guess if there are millions of research dollars fed into them they should be good for something, right? Science is good & soundings are too sparse in this part of TX

Forecasting guidance is just that...guidance. If the NWS temperatures for Sunday night and Monday are going to verify, then someone should tell the cold front over NC TX to slow down...it is already through Waco and moving south per FWD radar. Much colder polar air with much greater density is surging through WC TX currently and will overtake the first boundary tonight. I think the boundary will be off the coast by midnight Sunday...just my thoughts based on the trends I see...models do not support that thinking much, but time and time again cold dense air undercuts unfavorable upper level flow especially when clouds and rainfall are widespread behind the boundary helping to limit modification.

[unome]

I am just fine with NWS using model forecasting, I mean I guess if there are millions of research dollars fed into them they should be good for something, right? Science is good & soundings are too sparse in this part of TX

Forecasting guidance is just that...guidance. If the NWS temperatures for Sunday night and Monday are going to verify, then someone should tell the cold front over NC TX to slow down...it is already through Waco and moving south per FWD radar. Much colder polar air with much greater density is surging through WC TX currently and will overtake the first boundary tonight. I think the boundary will be off the coast by midnight Sunday...just my thoughts based on the trends I see...models do not support that thinking much, but time and time again cold dense air undercuts unfavorable upper level flow especially when clouds and rainfall are widespread behind the boundary helping to limit modification.

I'm impressed Jeff, you apparently have the ability to quote something I wrote, but erased before posting???

[Andrew]

I am just fine with NWS using model forecasting, I mean I guess if there are millions of research dollars fed into them they should be good for something, right? Science is good & soundings are too sparse in this part of TX

Forecasting guidance is just that...guidance. If the NWS temperatures for Sunday night and Monday are going to verify, then someone should tell the cold front over NC TX to slow down...it is already through Waco and moving south per FWD radar. Much colder polar air with much greater density is surging through WC TX currently and will overtake the first boundary tonight. I think the boundary will be off the coast by midnight Sunday...just my thoughts based on the trends I see...models do not support that thinking much, but time and time again cold dense air undercuts unfavorable upper level flow especially when clouds and rainfall are widespread behind the boundary helping to limit modification.

I'm impressed Jeff, you apparently have the ability to quote something I wrote, but erased before posting???

What do you mean Unome?

[biggerbyte]

I am just fine with NWS using model forecasting, I mean I guess if there are millions of research dollars fed into them they should be good for something, right? Science is good & soundings are too sparse in this part of TX

Forecasting guidance is just that...guidance. If the NWS temperatures for Sunday night and Monday are going to verify, then someone should tell the cold front over NC TX to slow down...it is already through Waco and moving south per FWD radar. Much colder polar air with much greater density is surging through WC TX currently and will overtake the first boundary tonight. I think the boundary will be off the coast by midnight Sunday...just my thoughts based on the trends I see...models do not support that thinking much, but time and time again cold dense air undercuts unfavorable upper level flow especially when clouds and rainfall are widespread behind the boundary helping to limit modification.

Bravo, Jeff.

This is the very point I was making two days ago about the shock in the change in the official temp forecasts come Saturday and Sunday. I expect that they will come to order before midnight on Sunday.

[weatherguy425]

Models have already messed up... I wasn't expecting precipitation to begin until late tomorrow afternoon..... looks like that may be wrong.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
942 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2011

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
REGARDING THE OVERNIGHT AND DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. IF CURRENT NWP
TRENDS CONTINUE...ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE REQUIRED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE DEPTH OF THE CURRENT
UA LOW OVER ARIZONA. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO
RESOLVE WEAK FORCING/ASCENT NOW SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER
THE TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAR/ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER AIR JET...
AND MAY BE AIDED BY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. EVEN SO...ALL MODELS
NOW GENERATE LIGHT QPF OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT ANY WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REAR OF THE UA JET SHOULD TRANSLATE NORTH AS IT PROPAGATES
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER OKLAHOMA/KANSAS THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
THUS AT LEAST A SLIGHT AND/OR LOW CHANCE /20-30 PERCENT/ OF
PRECIPITATION IS WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FURTHER...
DRAMATIC CHANGES IN 00Z MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE DAYTIME PRECIPITATION MAY BE WINTRY...WITH MET
MOS TEMPERATURE MAXIMA NOW IN THE 30S AND POPS UPWARDS OF 70
PERCENT...AND SREF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES UPWARDS OF
30-40 PERCENT OVER PART OF THE AREA BEFORE 00Z. FOR NOW...HAVE
LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS AND INTRODUCED POPS...AND WILL LET THE
NEXT SHIFT FURTHER EVALUATE AS THESE NWP TRENDS CONTINUE TO EMERGE.

[srainhoutx]

I am just fine with NWS using model forecasting, I mean I guess if there are millions of research dollars fed into them they should be good for something, right? Science is good & soundings are too sparse in this part of TX

Forecasting guidance is just that...guidance. If the NWS temperatures for Sunday night and Monday are going to verify, then someone should tell the cold front over NC TX to slow down...it is already through Waco and moving south per FWD radar. Much colder polar air with much greater density is surging through WC TX currently and will overtake the first boundary tonight. I think the boundary will be off the coast by midnight Sunday...just my thoughts based on the trends I see...models do not support that thinking much, but time and time again cold dense air undercuts unfavorable upper level flow especially when clouds and rainfall are widespread behind the boundary helping to limit modification.

I'm impressed Jeff, you apparently have the ability to quote something I wrote, but erased before posting???

Sometimes when I post, I will make or submit that post (hit the submit button) then edit later (my postings) after using spell check programs or to add additional information before re submitting that post. Perhaps that is what happened in this situation.?

[srainhoutx]

I see even HGX is adjusting the timing of the front as well. As we have mentioned (wxman57/Jeff and others), guidance often struggles with these shallow cold air masses. One thing I noticed this afternoon when viewing various imagery and surface data is that things had been progressing a bit faster than "forecast" and more potent energy was rotating beneath the base of the trough/upper air feature in Arizona and tapping into some deeper moisture/energy in the mid levels from the EPAC and off the CA Coast. We have been chatting the last several days that this is an evolving situation and to expected changes as the pattern was rather volatile. We'll need to monitor this over the next 24-48 hours and expect further 'fine tuning' ahead...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1131 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...

SEE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR A FASTER CF MOVEMENT INTO NW AREAS
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...USING A COMPROMISE OF NAM/GFS SOLNS.
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN TOMORROW AROUND MID
MORNING AS IT APPROACHES UTS. WILL HAVE IT STALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THEN CREEPING SOUTHEAST SUN EVE TOWARD IAH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE IS AN INCREASE IN SHWR ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AREAS AND SOME MVFR FOG AND MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS. EXPECT AN OVERCAST DAY WITH PERIODIC -SHRA BEHIND THE
FRONT TOMORROW WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT CEILINGS
WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AND SHOULD SEE SCT SHWRS. COULD ALSO SEE
ISOLATED TSTMS TOMORROW AREAWIDE...BUT TOO LOW OF A PROB TO PUT
IN THE TAFS ATTM.

[srainhoutx]

SPC Morning Update:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2011

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A POSITIVELY TILTED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE DAY 1 PERIOD FROM HUDSON BAY SWWD INTO THE SWRN U.S. WITHIN
THIS BROADER-SCALE REGIME...AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
INTO LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE EWD TRANSLATION
AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN AZ
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO ERN/CNTRL TX AS OF 12Z WILL CONTINUE EWD/SWD...
EVENTUALLY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO TX COAST BY
05/12Z.

...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE TERMINUS OF A 30-40 KT LLJ IS
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT --WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS--
THIS MORNING ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL TX INTO
AR AND NRN LA. THE MAINTENANCE OF THE LLJ AND SWD PROGRESSION OF
THE COLD FRONT INTO A MOIST AIR MASS /I.E. PW VALUES OF 1.0-1.5
INCHES/ WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...PRIMARILY ON THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.
DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND A STEADILY MOISTENING
WARM SECTOR ALONG THE TX COAST...POOR LAPSES AND RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS THE ANAFRONTAL AIR FLOW REGIME ALONG THE
SURGING BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

[srainhoutx]

It does appear the front is making progress S this morning. Currently the fronatl boundary has passed College Station/Huntsville and is approaching Conroe/Brenham at this hour. We'll need to see if this trend continues or if the boundary slows down as HGX mentioned this morning along the HWY 59 corridor. My hunch is it will continue to sag S toward the coast as the day wears on.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM does suggest the front will be along the coast late this afternoon/evening. Than model also suggests a rather strong short wave rounding the base of the trough heading ENE. Yet another upper air disturbance is diving S toward Arizona along the western flank of the trough axis setting the stage for another round of precip for tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

The frontal boundary has passed Prairie View and is nearing Hempstead/Conroe at this hour.

[tireman4]

Please get here before 3 pm. My run yesterday was another survival run with humidity. Back on topic, the front is really making great progress. Interesting as to earlier model runs.....

[srainhoutx]

The frontal boundary has passed Waller/Magnolia at this hour. The NAM, radar, as well as surface obs/charts suggest a coastal low may be in the beginning stages of forming near Corpus. That will be something to monitor as the day goes on.

[JackCruz]

Lmao....why is it sunny outside?

[brazoriatx]

Lmao....why is it sunny outside?

where are you located jack? its cloudy and misty over here in a angleton

[JackCruz]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
745 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2011

.UPDATE...
FRONT IS NOW LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY TRINITY TO COLUMBUS WHICH IS
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAT EVEN THE FASTEST GUIDANCE...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LATEST 06Z 3KM WRF RUN AT TX TECH. HAVE UPDATED
GRIDS AND FOLLOWED THE WRF CLOSELY WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY LIBERTY-MATAGORDA BY 6PM AND OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 53 44 48 37 45 / 100 90 70 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 46 52 42 47 / 80 60 70 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 56 56 46 51 / 50 40 70 50 30

[srainhoutx]

Yep. As we thought. The front is moving quicker toward the coast. The frontal boundary is passing my location in NW Harris County at this time.

[JackCruz]

Lmao....why is it sunny outside?

where are you located jack? its cloudy and misty over here in a angleton

Close to Jersey Village...around that area.

[JackCruz]

They took our low of 27 off and replaced it with 36 -_________________-