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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.1ºC

Warming up in Region 1+2 and 3. Unchanged in 3.4 and cooling down for 4.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Warm water below the surface. Now, can it go to the surface?




The European June forecast for El Nino Region 3.4


Most forecast trend towards El Nino. I am not sure if El Nino will develop.

Australia Bureau of Meteorology June forecast for El Nino Region 3.4


It forecasts towards a cool Neutral.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.6ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

All regions have cooled.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.9ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 has cooled, while the rest have warmed.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 have warmed, while 3.4 has cooled. Region 4 is unchanged.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 has warmed, while 3 and 3.4 have warmed. Region 4 is unchanged.

Neutral through peak hurricane season. One has La Nina by December.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 4 have cooled, while 3 and 3.4 have stayed the same.

The ECMWF Eurosip has neutral for peak season.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 have warmed. Region 4 is unchanged.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 have cooled. Region 3.4 and 4 have warmed. I think it will be Neutral.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 have warmed. Region 3.4 and 4 have cooled.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 are unchanged, while 3.4 and 4 have cooled.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.8ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 have warmed, while 3.4 and 4 are unchanged.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Unchanged for Region 1+2. Warmed up for Region 3, 3.4, and 4.

Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
• ENSO-neutral conditions continue.
• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are above average across the western Pacific, near average in the central Pacific, and below average in the eastern Pacific.
• ENSO-neutral is favored into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2013.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Warming in Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4. Cooling in Region 4.

Summary
• ENSO-neutral conditions continue.
• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are above average across the western Pacific, near average in the central Pacific, and below average in the eastern Pacific.
• ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2013-14.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.4ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Warming in Region 1+2 and 3. Cooling in Region 4. Unchanged in Region 3.4.

Summary
• ENSO-neutral conditions continue.
• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are above average across the western Pacific, near average in the central Pacific, and below average in the eastern Pacific.
• ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2013-14.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3.4, and 4 have cooled, while 3 has warmed.

Summary
• ENSO-neutral conditions continue.
• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are near average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2013-14.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.4ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 has warmed, while 3 and 3.4 have cooled. Region 4 is unchanged.

Summary
• ENSO-neutral conditions continue.
• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are near average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2013-14.

There has not been an El Nino since 2010. The Pacific has been quiet in terms of hurricanes and typhoons. I think an El Nino could spark it up again. When there is El Nino, it helps warm the PDO up as we are in a cool PDO, which means less tropical activity. It could also help spark up the Atlantic despite the fact that El Nino reduces hurricanes in the Atlantic. Some of the most active hurricane seasons occurred in El Nino seasons like 1969 and 2004.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3.4 have cooled, while 3 is unchanged. Region 4 has warmed.

No El Nino. The last time we had a long gap without El Nino was 1997-1998 to 2002-2003. By late 2002, PDO warmed up again until 2008.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 has warmed, while 3 has cooled. Region 3.4 and 4 have remained unchanged.