January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[wxman57]

Snow would certainly be possible in the TX Panhandle eastward into southern OK next week. However, the latest Euro thickness values are 546-552 with the upper low passage with surface temps above freezing across the Panhandle and southern OK.

[srainhoutx]

Snow would certainly be possible in the TX Panhandle eastward into southern OK next week. However, the latest Euro thickness values are 546-552 with the upper low passage with surface temps above freezing across the Panhandle and southern OK.

And as we have stated many times during the month of December, all these models don't have any real clue beyond the 3 day time frame with these upper lows. You as well as I know that the thickness values at this range are nothing more than a 'guess' at best. I suspect before all is said and done a Winter Storm Watch will be issued in New Mexico/S Colorado and maybe even parts of the Panhandles. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Quite start to 2012 will continue as zonal and dry upper level pattern prevails across Texas.

Surface high pressure is moving off to the east allowing very weak onshore flow to develop. Smoke from wildfires burning in southern Jefferson County (10,000 acres) should stay east of the region today with more of a southerly flow transporting the smoke more northward than westward. Low level moisture will slowly return to the region ahead of a weak front which will move off the coast early Thursday. This front will briefly turn winds northerly and knock a few degrees off the high temperatures for Thursday. As this front stalls over the coastal waters a weak upper level low develops over N MX and moves across TX Friday, but with severely limited moisture, rain chances will be less than 30% and confined mainly to the coast where coastal troughing offshore may provide better lift and where the best moisture is found.

Gradual warming into the weekend ahead of another weak front on Sunday which will swing winds back to the north and cool temperatures back toward normal. Highs Saturday will warm into the lower 70’s under increasing southerly winds and clouds. Moisture once again looks limited with the frontal passage on Sunday, so the drier pattern will continue into the weekend.

Models begin to diverge on timing and intensity of the next storm system indicated for early next week. GFS is once again the most progressive while the ECMWF is slower and stronger. ECMWF would give the region a much better shot at rainfall. For now will trend in that direction….toward the ECMWF model, but the forecast confidence for early next week is low. It will be cooler however with clouds and possible rain behind the Sunday cold front going into Monday and Tuesday.

[JackCruz]

I need this storm system to track more East in the coming days.

[srainhoutx]

Today's version or the 12Z GFS paints a very wet pattern across Texas. The upper low drops further inland into the Great Basin and on into Central Texas. I will point out that the feature we are watching is still out in the Pacific and not in the RAOB network, so expect changes the next several days...

[wxman57]

Yes, the 12Z GFS run is back to a more southern track of the upper low but with temps across Texas well above freezing. It's forecasting +4C at 850mb (5000 ft) over Houston as the upper low passes with temps into the 50s. The only freezing temps it has in Texas early next week are in the NW tip if the panhandle. Could mean some decent rain for Houston if this pans out.

Here's a meteogram based on the 12Z GFS. 850mb temps are the dotted red line.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'll take the cold rain as a consolation. Anything but mid 60s to mid 70s and dry. That crap is for mid March to mid April.

[ticka1]

I agree bring on the rain. The more rain we get the better it will be for spring gardening. A little weather excitement is always good for us here in SE Texas. Something to get us thru the cold winter.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian has joined the GFS and suggests a Southern Track and also is painting a wet picture for early next week...

[srainhoutx]

I'd like to add there is a lot of chatter regarding a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event that the Euro and its ensembles are sniffing. These events are a work in progress and usually take around 15-20 days before we see the results of those type events at the surface. I would expect to see a lot of waffling via guidance in the longer range. As wxman57 mentioned, there are hints of a major cool down in NW Canada just beyond the mid month range and with an active Pacific, snow pack may well have a chance to develop across Canada and the Plains. Remember the old 'stepping down process adage' as we look ahead.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'd like to add there is a lot of chatter regarding a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event that the Euro and its ensembles are sniffing. These events are a work in progress and usually take around 15-20 days before we see the results of those type events at the surface. I would expect to see a lot of waffling via guidance in the longer range. As wxman57 mentioned, there are hints of a major cool down in NW Canada just beyond the mid month range and with an active Pacific, snow pack may well have a chance to develop across Canada and the Plains. Remember the old 'stepping down process adage' as we look ahead.

Well I see Bastardi is going bonkers on twitter so it must be cooling down up there...

I think he loves winter weather more than I do, and I didn't realize until now that was possible.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro and 12Z GFS are a little closer together with the timing of the upper low moving across TX next week. Neither indicates anything but rain over Houston. Possible frozen precip up north of Dallas, though. Longer term, Euro is in through 204 hrs and still has above normal surface temps in western Canada on the 13th.

[srainhoutx]

By hour 216 via the 12Z Euro, a nice phase of the northern stream and the southern storm suggest some chilly temps spill S as the upper low passes. And look at those heights build in the Gulf of Alaska...

[srainhoutx]

lol...

[Ptarmigan]

If we get the rain, but no freeze, I am cool with it. We need the rain for sure.

[wxman57]

If that was to verify (Euro 240 hrs), it could mean a light freeze for the weekend of the Houston marathon. And much colder air across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. They can have it!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

lol...

Damnit, I want those over southeast Texas with a nice ULL scooting across a Victoria to Conroe line. Is that too much to ask?

[srainhoutx]

lol...

Damnit, I want those over southeast Texas with a nice ULL scooting across a Victoria to Conroe line. Is that too much to ask?

Remember this is the same model that had us @ -13C for this past Monday/Tuesday...

[tireman4]

I hope it is cool and dry for the Olympic Trials Marathon January 14, 2012. It will be a great day for Houston and I will be watching it. It will not be shown live ( At least not that I have seen), but on tape delay on NBC at 2 pm later in the day.

[wxman57]

I hope it is cool and dry for the Olympic Trials Marathon January 14, 2012. It will be a great day for Houston and I will be watching it. It will not be shown live ( At least not that I have seen), but on tape delay on NBC at 2 pm later in the day.

I didn't realize that the Olympic trials were going to be held here the day before the Houston marathon. Too bad it's looking cold that morning, as once again you won't find me on my bike at the start/finish line. No way I'm biking the 15 miles to the start with temps in the 30s.