May: IAH Does Not Reach 90 During May. 1970 Mark Achieved

[BlueJay]

Oh my! That looks promising Srain. Batten down the hatches everybody!

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/12/14 2334Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2325Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPENES FOR ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0000-0600Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH MUCH OF NE TX WITH REPORTS FROM FWD WFO OF 2.0-3.0" TOTALS.
HCRS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE OVER E/NE TX WITH CB DEVELOPING JUST W OF GGG
AND THIS SHOULD FEED INTO LINE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS OVER PORTIONS
OF NE TX. FURTHER TO THE SW CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO MOVE
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FEEDING NW UP THE RIO GRANDE TO ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE REGENERATION AND TRAINING DOWNSTREAM FROM ROUGHLY
ACT EXTENDING WSW TO JUST N OF ECU. TROF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY IN THE SW
WHICH SHOULD HOLD BOTH ENTRANCE REGION AND HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW NEARLY
IN PLACE. WOULD EXPECT THAT SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE OVER
PORTIONS OF NE TX AND SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE OVER PORTIONS OF S CNTRL
TX FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GOES SOUNDER DOES SHOW HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS UPSTREAM SO WOULD EXPECT THAT SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME OVER S CNTRL TX AND BEGIN ACCELERATING TOWARDS
PERHAPS 03Z WHICH WILL LIKELY DECREASE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT FURTHER
SOUTH. WAS KEEPING AN EYE FOR THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN LINE
AND CONVECTION OVER N MEXICO BUT MOST OF THOSE HAVE BEEN RIGHT MOVERS
DROPPING SE. THERE WAS STILL IMPULSES UPSTREAM TO POTENTIALLY ALLOW
FOR SOME CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER N MEXICO TO INTERACT WITH EXISTING
MCS BUT THAT IS BECOMING LESS CERTAIN. STILL THOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME
LOCALIZED 4.0-6.0" TOTALS POSSIBLE ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE VIC
OF ECU/ERV EXTENDING NE TO S OF ACT.

[srainhoutx]

Great news for the Highland Lakes of Central Texas. Radar indicates merging cells across Kerr and Gellispie County. Those are the headwaters for those Hill Country Lakes. The continued slow movement of the boundary suggests up to 4 inches during the next hour our two. It’s good to see the Nueces, Guadalupe and Colorado watersheds receiving heavy rain. That bodes well for the Highland Lakes of the Balcones Escarpment.

[unome]

that's one heck of a line of storms

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
844 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212-130245-
TRINITY TX-BURLESON TX-POLK TX-SAN JACINTO TX-MADISON TX-WALKER TX-
WALLER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-GRIMES TX-
COLORADO TX-AUSTIN TX-HOUSTON TX-
844 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN WALLER...WALKER...NORTHERN
COLORADO...BURLESON...NORTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY...WASHINGTON...HOUSTON...MADISON AND GRIMES COUNTIES UNTIL
945 PM CDT...

AT 842 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BRENHAM TO MADISONVILLE
TO NEAR APPLE SPRINGS...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...HUNTSVILLE...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...
CROCKETT...MADISONVILLE...CALDWELL...APPLE SPRINGS...AUSTONIO...
WASHINGTON...TRINITY...ONALASKA...GRAPELAND...SOMERVILLE...
GROVETON...NEW WAVERLY...POINT BLANK...LOVELADY AND MONTGOMERY.

[srainhoutx]

Good discussion from NWS Houston/Galveston. Hopefully everyone get's the rain they have been wanting. Just not too much at one time...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
835 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

.UPDATE...
PRIMARILY DISCRETE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
STORMS/MORE ORGANIZED N-S ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINES...BLOSSOMING
UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST-NORTH CWA AND FEEDING INTO THE MAIN QLCS
CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA. COOL POOL SEEMING TO KICK
IN ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANK AND PUSHING THIS ONCE VERY SLOW-MOVING
LINE MORE PROGRESSIVELY SE`WARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM
HIGH REZ MODELING HAS A MORE RAGGED CONVECTIVE LINE SPEEDING UP
AND REACHING THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CITY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1
AM...TO THE COAST BY 3 OR 4 AM. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO PROVIDE THE
GREATEST SOUTHERN PUSH TO THE LINE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THUS...WITH THIS VELOCITY...AREAWIDE AVERAGE QPF WILL BE UNDER TWO
INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 TO 4 INCHES. BULK OF RAIN SHOULD FALL
ALONG AND WEST OF I-45 THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS...THE
PROBABILITY OF LOCALIZED 3-4 INCH TOTALS...LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING OF LOCAL AREA ROADWAYS...WILL MAINTAIN TUESDAY MORNING`S
NW`ERN CWA`S FLASH FLOOD WATCH. 31

[Paul Robison]

[quote="srainhoutx"]Good discussion from NWS Houston/Galveston. Hopefully everyone get's the rain they have been wanting. Just not too much at one time...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
835 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

.UPDATE...
PRIMARILY DISCRETE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
STORMS/MORE ORGANIZED N-S ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINES...BLOSSOMING
UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST-NORTH CWA AND FEEDING INTO THE MAIN QLCS
CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA. COOL POOL SEEMING TO KICK
IN ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANK AND PUSHING THIS ONCE VERY SLOW-MOVING
LINE MORE PROGRESSIVELY SE`WARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM
HIGH REZ MODELING HAS A MORE RAGGED CONVECTIVE LINE SPEEDING UP
AND REACHING THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CITY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1
AM...TO THE COAST BY 3 OR 4 AM. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO PROVIDE THE
GREATEST SOUTHERN PUSH TO THE LINE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THUS...WITH THIS VELOCITY...AREAWIDE AVERAGE QPF WILL BE UNDER TWO
INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 TO 4 INCHES. BULK OF RAIN SHOULD FALL
ALONG AND WEST OF I-45 THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS...THE
PROBABILITY OF LOCALIZED 3-4 INCH TOTALS...LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING OF LOCAL AREA ROADWAYS...WILL MAINTAIN TUESDAY MORNING`S
NW`ERN CWA`S FLASH FLOOD WATCH. 31

I don't know about the "good news" part, Srainhoutex. The storms seem to be producing a lot of lightning (see Wunderground radar) I suspect the northern tiers of our city could experience very strong winds. Some damage, some power loss, you think?

[Heat Miser]

Believe a deluge of rain will be a tremendous help to this area. A few lightning strikes and some gusts of wind won't diminish that benefit.
Every rose has it's thorn.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:


Flash Flood Watch in effect west of I-45 and north of I-10

Large band of moderate to heavy rainfall extending from NW of San Antonio to near Huntsville moving slowly ssouthward.

Radar shows a well defined outflow boundary advancing southward west of I-45 which is helping to promote a southern movement to the near stationary line of activity to our north. Thus far rainfall amounts have averaged 1-2 inches under the stronger cells, but cell motions have been very slow and expect totals to continue to increase given influx of very rich tropical feed off the western Gulf. Meso scale boundaries will help to drive activity deeper into the area overnight and feel that at least the northern ½ of the region will see rainfall and some heavy.

 

Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with isolated amounts of 3-4 inches will be possible in the watch area. Could see some excessive short term rainfall in areas of cell training and cell mergers with the main line and this is possible at almost any location. Not sure widespread flooding will verify in the watch area given the dry grounds, but things can go bad quickly in this type of setup with a defined convective complex and PWS nearing 2.0 inches with slow moving cells.  

 

Meso models want to bring the activity toward the coast by daybreak…not sure it will maintain itself that long but given the good inflow it is possible. Think amounts south of I-10 will be less compared to up north.

[Paul Robison]

Update from Jeff:


Flash Flood Watch in effect west of I-45 and north of I-10

Large band of moderate to heavy rainfall extending from NW of San Antonio to near Huntsville moving slowly ssouthward.

Radar shows a well defined outflow boundary advancing southward west of I-45 which is helping to promote a southern movement to the near stationary line of activity to our north. Thus far rainfall amounts have averaged 1-2 inches under the stronger cells, but cell motions have been very slow and expect totals to continue to increase given influx of very rich tropical feed off the western Gulf. Meso scale boundaries will help to drive activity deeper into the area overnight and feel that at least the northern ½ of the region will see rainfall and some heavy.



Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with isolated amounts of 3-4 inches will be possible in the watch area. Could see some excessive short term rainfall in areas of cell training and cell mergers with the main line and this is possible at almost any location. Not sure widespread flooding will verify in the watch area given the dry grounds, but things can go bad quickly in this type of setup with a defined convective complex and PWS nearing 2.0 inches with slow moving cells.



Meso models want to bring the activity toward the coast by daybreak…not sure it will maintain itself that long but given the good inflow it is possible. Think amounts south of I-10 will be less compared to up north.

I'm on the southwest side of houston, which is "south of I-10". I guess I won't get hit as hard, huh?

[Ptarmigan]

Believe a deluge of rain will be a tremendous help to this area. A few lightning strikes and some gusts of wind won't diminish that benefit.
Every rose has it's thorn.

It would be nice to see rain for sure. Droughts are yucky as we end up paying higher prices at the supermarket.

[Rip76]

My son was born June 13, 2008.
Three months to the day of Ike's landfall.
Since that cool front pushed through the night after Ike, South Texas weather hasn't been the same.
He's probably seen a good rain, roughly 10 times.

That radar is a welcome site.

[Andrew]

Getting some nice streamer showers ahead of the main boundary that are oriented in a perpendicular manner. Could spell trouble for areas that get caught up in these scattered storms ahead of the main line. SPC mesoanlysis shows a nice pocket of 1.9-2.0 inch PW values just to the SW of the Houston Metro area. That matches up well with the storms forming ahead of the main convective line. I suspect Flash Flood watches may be extended south and East some.

[Andrew]

Updated Excessive Rainfall:

[Rip76]

The map earlier today that put all the rainfall at San Antonio, was dead on.

I can see some major flooding there within the next hour.

[Rip76]

Looks as if we may get two shots here in Houston.
One area moving in straight from the north, and the other area of storms near San Antonio.

[djjordan]

Nothing much at my house yet in Ft. Bend County, but I've been listening to scanner traffic and checking out twitter and such.... Lots of Water Rescues ongoing along IH45 in Montgomery County. The rain is coming down fast and furious.


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 AM CDT

* AT 1202 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR STREET AND
FEEDER FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BELLAIRE...HUMBLE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...KATY...GALENA PARK...
TOMBALL...JACINTO CITY...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...
BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...PINEHURST...MIDTOWN
HOUSTON...FOURTH WARD...GREATER THIRD WARD...GREATER EASTWOOD...
ALDINE...SECOND WARD...NEARTOWN / MONTROSE AND MEMORIAL PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

[djjordan]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 AM CDT

* AT 1248 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SUGAR LAND...WESTERN MISSOURI CITY...ROSENBERG...KATY...RICHMOND...
EL CAMPO...WHARTON...SEALY...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...
BROOKSHIRE...BELLVILLE...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...PECAN GROVE...
FIRST COLONY...EAST BERNARD...WEIMAR...WALLIS AND FULSHEAR.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

[Andrew]

Outflow may be cutting off convection some around the Houston Area. Wait and see mode to see if more develops from the boundary.

[Andrew]

Convective line continues to inch through the area. Locations just west off the Houston area all the way along I-10 are getting hammered. A long night and messy commute look likely for parts of the area.