MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

[Katdaddy]

Another very nice Spring day across SE TX with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 70s.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.AVIATION...
Increasing SE to S winds today, and they could get gusty
especially this afternoon. Could see a cu field develop with
heating, but expect VFR to persist. Winds weaken a little this
evening and on through the overnight hours. Increasing cloud
cover and possible MVFR ceilings can be expected tomorrow along
with slightly stronger/gustier S to SSE winds. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Another cool, quiet night will give way to a day with high
temperatures rising into the middle to upper 70s. Light and
variable winds will become onshore and more moderate through the
day, the beginning of a trend for increased humidity and warmer
temperatures into the weekend. Next week is likely to be more
active weather-wise, with higher chances for showers and storms.

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Some mid to high clouds are passing across parts of the area very
early this morning, but otherwise it is clear, calm, and cool
across the area - but not quite as cool as the previous night.

Today, winds will begin light and variable, but onshore flow
should establish as the day goes on,and we may be looking at some
cumulus popping up this afternoon, at least to the southwest of
Houston around Matagorda Bay. Regardless, expect it to be sunny
enough for temperatures this afternoon to rise into the middle to
upper 70s and modestly more humid.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

As moisture continues to gradually work into the area tonight,
look for overnight lows to be a good 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
this morning`s lows. Along with that, temperatures Friday look to
be more around 80 degrees. Wash, rinse, and repeat Friday night
into Saturday, with lows a little bit warmer and highs moving a
little more into the 80s.

With precipitable water rising above an inch for Friday and to
near and above 1.25 inches for Saturday, and onshore flow likely
accompanied by gentle lift, we should see cloudiness increase over
the next couple of days at the very least. But, with SW/WSW flow
in the 700-850mb layer with warm air advection at the same time,
things may also become pretty well capped off. In fact, I went
ahead and nudged Friday and Saturday a little lower on the PoP
side, but also kept some sprinkles in the forecast to indicate
there may still be some potential of very light precip under the
cap. There`ll be some instability assuming the cap can be
broken...but there`s not a lot in the guidance right now to
indicate what may help that occur.

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Saturday night into Sunday doesn`t look significantly different,
but modest changes may be enough to tweak things a little bit.
With humidity back in place, and a mid-level ridge overhead,
Saturday night`s lows will likely be quite summer-like. With
plenty of cloudiness expected, think highs will be held in check a
bit, but still should break 80 degrees. Low level flow looks to
back just a little bit, and cooling at 850 suggest a cap that may
be defeatable, so keep a slight chance of showers and storms in
place for Sunday.

However, more significant changes are on tap for a bit deeper into
the weekend. In general, there`s pretty good agreement in the
guidance for a deep, upper trough to work to the Rocky Mountains
inducing lee cyclogenesis over Colorado, which will then track up
to the Great Lakes into the mid-week. This will drape a cold front
back into Texas, and...this is roughly where agreement in the
models begins to break down. The GFS is a bit more progressive
than the Euro, but eventually as the upper trough rotates through
late in the week, there is agreement in finally pushing the front
fully across the area. Since the broad idea is pretty similar, and
many of the drivers on the nuances for our sensible weather is
frustratingly unpredictable at this range, and honestly, the GFS
and Euro are playing to their stereotypes here, the forecast is
roughly a blend of the suite of guidance. There is a bit of a lean
towards the Euro here for continuity with the previous forecast
and a nod towards its general higher reliability, but the Cliffs
on this is for a more active period next week, with chances of
showers and storms on any given day higher than climo.

Temperature-wise, as we look at the upper ridge getting shoved off
ending subsidence, cloudiness, and higher rain chances, do trend
highs a bit downward and generally smaller diurnal ranges. Don`t
really look for lows to drop until the front is finally pushed
through and some drier air works in.

MARINE...

With high pressure now off to the east, onshore winds
will be returning to the area today and will be
strengthening through the end of the week and into
the weekend. Seas will be on the rise too, and the
combination of increasing winds and building seas will
likely lead to caution flags (could happen as early as
this afternoon or tonight) and possible advisory flags
(at the end of the week and into the first part of the
weekend). Conditions do not get any better during the
first half of next week as the pressure gradient gets
even tighter resulting in stronger onshore winds and
rough seas. Advisories will likely be needed.
The current forecast has the area`s next cold front
moving off the coast around a week from today. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 57 81 65 82 / 0 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 76 58 79 66 80 / 0 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 71 64 74 69 75 / 0 0 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 221742
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1242 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.AVIATION...
A tightening surface pressure gradient over the Southern Plains has
led to winds gusting over 20 mph today, expected to gust up to 25
this afternoon. As the surface low over Colorado deepens and
tracks eastward, winds are expected to back from easterly today to
southerly tomorrow morning.

A lower cloud deck, down to MVFR farther north, will move into
the area tonight from the west. Conditions will improve to low-end
VFR mid-morning tomorrow, and gusty winds return tomorrow
afternoon. 22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Onshore winds will continue to develop and increase this after-
noon as the surface high continues to slide off to the east. Not
planning on any significant changes (if any) with this update as
grids appear to be on the right track. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 57 81 65 82 / 0 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 76 58 79 66 80 / 0 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 71 64 74 69 75 / 0 0 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[Katdaddy]

Increasing clouds and winds today as we transition to warm and humid weather for the weekend. A slight chance of thunderstorms on Sunday.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise an active weather week likely beginning next Tuesday and continuing until next Thursday before a cold front pushes through and brings a nice Easter Weekend.

The Ensembles are in agreement suggesting a Spring like Upper Trough and a Southern Rockies Storm System begins to organize on Tuesday and deepen. Wednesday, this Southern Storm should begin to slowly eject E into West Texas and the Permian Basin moving ENE. The Storm Prediction Center has Outline a possible severe thunderstorm potential for areas along and East of the I-35 Corridor of S Central/Central and NE Texas.

The attachment 03232018 SPC Day 5 day5prob.gif is no longer available

Concern grows Wednesday night into Thursday as leeside cyclogenesis wraps up a powerful storm system and attending cold front begins its march SE where PW's are expected to be near 2 inches suggesting heavy training thunderstorms may be possible. I would not be surprised to see portion of SE Texas to be highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center in future Outlooks. While it is too soon to know exactly where and which neighborhoods may be impacted by heavy rainfall and potential severe weather, it will be worth monitoring over the weekend into early next week as we 'fine tune' what our sensible weather may bring.

[CrashTestDummy]

Went out to see my bride off to work this morning. It was mid-50's and calm. There was a bit of fog in our back lot and neighbor's pasture. I looked over at the neighbor's back yard, and I could see a band of fog silhouetted against our neighbor's dark brown RV shed. It was about 10' above the ground, and about 4' thick. While I was looking at it, I could see a little 'swell' move through it from south-to-north. It put a smile on my face.

Isn't weather neat to watch??

[srainhoutx]

Friday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Upper level pattern will undergo change over the next few days returning chances for showers and thunderstorms to TX for much of next week.

Recent spell of calm weather will gradually end as southerly winds are already returning Gulf moisture and this will continue for the next several days as a large trough develops over the SW US and slowly edges toward the central plains. High pressure over the SE US will result in the incoming trough and front to slow and potentially stall over NC/NE TX next week with a warm and humid air mass poised over SE TX to feed rounds of thunderstorms along the frontal boundary. Current indications is that this boundary will stall well inland across portions of NC/NE TX and this should be where a corridor of heavy rainfall will be possible. Global models have been fairly consistent on this outcome…somewhat similar to the last week of February 2018 where this same region was under the threat for excessive rainfall. I am always a little wary of the potential for heavy rainfall to our NW, as past experiences have shown that thunderstorm complexes can result in the actually frontal boundary pushing SE faster than the global guidance may suggest and focusing the threat more toward the SE. Something to watch over the next few days.

For now will keep the widespread heavy rains NW and N of our area, with showers and thunderstorms increasing each day Monday-Thursday. Some of these days will have higher rain chances and others lower depending on when short wave eject in the SW upper level flow across SE TX.

[srainhoutx]

Agreement continues regarding next weeks potential severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall potential, but still a lot of uncertainty as to where and which neighborhoods will see the worst of the weather. As expected yesterday, the Storm Prediction Center has Outlined all of SE Texas for a chance of severe thunderstorms next Wednesday.

I still think the chance for the heaviest rainfall will be to our N and E, but this next frontal boundary looks to stall across portions of the Hill Country on Tuesday which raises an eyebrow at this range. We are still 5 days out, so expect some 'fine tuning' of the sensible weather forecast early next week. Generally areas to the SW of Metro Houston currently look the driest. I know you folks in Matagorda/Jackson/Wharton Counties really need some rainfall. Areas from Conroe/Huntsville into Liberty/Polk/San Jacinto and Houston Counties could see the highest totals as of this morning. In Metro Houston, it looks like 1-2 inch amounts are possible according to the WPC 5 Day QPF Charts. Will need to continue to monitor closely on Monday into Tuesday as the guidance is very aggressive with 2 inch PW amounts suggesting deep rich Gulf moisture will be abundant and rather high for late March standards.

[DoctorMu]

A little too humid/high DP for my taste, but will lead to more rain next week. Appears we'll avoid the severe action this time.

[Texaspirate11]

It was worth the cold winter....the blue bonnets are glorious this year

[Katdaddy]

Warm and humid weather the next several days as a trough and associated cold front moves across TX resulting in strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. The passage of the cold front on Thursday will result in cooler and mostly sunny skies through Easter.

The first day of the severe weather threat begins across W and NW TX this afternoon and will gradually shift SE to SE TX TX and the coastal areas by Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

Regarding the heavy rainfall potential, the overnight Mesoscale Guidance gives little in the way of forecast reliability as to where and which neighborhoods may see the highest rainfall totals Tuesday through at least Thursday before the very slow moving frontal boundary and its area of low pressure exists our Region sometime Thursday.

The short range guidance is all over the place with some indicating the heavier rainfall is to the N of Metro Houston and others suggesting our Southern and SW Areas could see the most rainfall. Will go with generally 1 to 3 inch amounts with a few isolated spots possibly picking up 4 to 5 inches where any training thunderstorms occur and will not be known prior to 6 to 8 hours in advance...at best. This does Not look like a severe flooding event for our Region at this time other that our typical street and roadway ponding of our known low lying areas. Needless to say we certainly can use some rainfall to wash away the pollen that has many of us suffering from sniffles and sneezing as well as green coated vehicles.

[tireman4]

To add to Srain's forecast...from Jeff's Tweet...

[jasons2k]

Lots of people outside today. I love Spring. Just need that rain this week - please don’t bust on us!

[srainhoutx]

Midday Monday briefing from Jeff...while he is attending the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando...

Mid week storm system will bring a threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall to the region late Tuesday-early Thursday.

An upper level storm system will deepen over the western US and then progress into TX over the next few days resulting in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Moist and unstable Gulf air mass will continue to flow inland off the western Gulf of Mexico, but the air mass is currently capped over SE TX and not expecting much shower or thunderstorm development today into early Tuesday. As a slow moving cold front edges closer to the region on Tuesday rain chances will begin to rise NW of a line from Columbus to Huntsville for Tuesday evening. Front will make very slow progress across SE TX on Wednesday and exit the coast early Thursday.

Severe Threat:
SPC has already outlooked much of the area for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday with primary threats being large hail and damaging winds up to 60mph. Main question with the severe threat this far out is does the surface front or associated convective outflows undercut the developing thunderstorms resulting in the cells becoming quickly elevated and reducing the severe risk. This time of year this is a fairly likely outcome, but the slow moving nature of the front and only modest post frontal cooler air does tend to contradict this potential. Instability and shear will be favorable for severe thunderstorms especially late Tuesday NW and then Wednesday across much of the area.

Heavy Rainfall:
Bigger potential may end up being heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Overall slow movement of the system and very high moisture levels with PWS of 1.8-2.0 inches by Wednesday support repeated cell training with heavy rainfall rates. Will broadbrush the entire region with 1-3 inches and isolated totals of 4 inches will be possible. Saturated air column support high hourly rainfall rates of 1-2 inches which may lead to street flooding. Overall ground conditions have dried since late February and spring green up has commenced which should help to reduce run-off rates compared to early this year. Areas along the Trinity River remain sensitive to heavy rainfall and given the widespread amounts over the next several days…rises back to near flood stage could result along the Trinity.

[Cromagnum]

Storms out near Wichita Falls are getting pretty salty. Be interested to see how much energy hangs around come Wednesday.

Also, what's up with the 30 degree weather the models are sniffing out next week?

[Katdaddy]

GOM moisture, gusty SSE winds, and rapidly moving tropical scud clouds this evening. The Spring 2018 severe weather season is ongoing across the S Plains this week.

[srainhoutx]

Active weather days ahead today through early Thursday for our Region. Heavy rainfall with generally 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher totals expected from Central/SE/E/NE Texas extending N and E into portions of Arkansas and Louisiana. I will let others comment on the Strong to Severe Thunderstorms expected with all modes of Severe Weather possible. Stay weather aware the next couple of days.

[Katdaddy]

The severe weather threat will increase today NW of SE TX across Central TX as the mid/upper level low drifts E across the S Plains. The severe weather threat and heavy rain will then move across S and SE TX; as well, LA and MS on Wednesday. Thunderstorms may begin to effect NW portions of SE TX tonight. Remain weather aware from Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning. In addition, the Wednesday morning and afternoon commutes will likely be impacted across the Houston-Galveston areas.

[sambucol]

Will the rain be severe from the onset and is it forecast to arrive tomorrow morning before rush hour? Thanks.