Winter Long Range Discussion

[Kingwood36]

Still hasn't broke you know who's wall yet...

[Stratton20]

Starting to see some signs in the models that the PNA may be heading towards neutralim optimistic!

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is putting intense pressure on Heat Miser's Final Wall

[Kingwood36]

18z GFS is putting intense pressure on Heat Miser's Final Wall

Only if it clears the Texas coast ..we know it made it past Oklahoma and central texas..if it stalls then it's a failure lol

[Stratton20]

Yep the 18z GFS is trying to suppress or weaken the ridge thats been causing this awful weather, and it brings much colder air into Texas but that is far out, still something positive to see

[Cpv17]

Yep the 18z GFS is trying to suppress or weaken the ridge thats been causing this awful weather, and it brings much colder air into Texas but that is far out, still something positive to see

That ridge is ridiculous. Just looked at the 18z GEFS and it remains in place throughout the entire 384 hours. Till that stubborn ridge moves or just weakens that cold is gonna stay locked up to our north. We could be dealing with a big ticket event if not for this blocking ridge. Blocking needs to be up north only, not down here!

[Stratton20]

days 9-10 on the 00z GFS just got real interesting

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is putting intense pressure on Heat Miser's Final Wall

Only if it clears the Texas coast ..we know it made it past Oklahoma and central texas..if it stalls then it's a failure lol

Heat Miser's final wall is the strongest, we will know it fell if the front cleared Houston.

[Stratton20]

The 12z GFS is showing a much stronger signal for a significant pattern change!

[Iceresistance]

This is what the MJO is doing right now in Phase 7, it's messing up the models badly!

[Stratton20]

So until the MJO moves into a different phase, the models are going to be about as reliable as a pile of animal dung, so useless!

[Cpv17]

So until the MJO moves into a different phase, the models are going to be about as reliable as a pile of animal dung, so useless!

We need the MJO to move into phase 8. That’s a cold phase for the south in a Niña background state.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 is their any ensemble guidance suggesting which phase the MJO may be trying to head towards?

[Stratton20]

This is a very positive trend in the 12z GEFS ensemble, definitely sniffing a big pattern change

[Kingwood36]

It will go poof again..sadly that has become the trend here lately..showing it then it disappearing

[Iceresistance]

CPV17 is their any ensemble guidance suggesting which phase the MJO may be trying to head towards?

It's trying to move into Phase 8, but it's stuck in Phase 7 right now.

[Stratton20]

Dont be a scrooge , everything I post “oh it aint gonna happen” you need some optimism dude their are definitely indications a pattern change is coming, the MJO will eventually go inti phase 8 even if it is moving at a snails pace to do so, apologies if my comment came off harsh, merry christmas yall, hopefully we can get this pattern to break in a few weeks, im almost becoming a scrooge myself haha

[Iceresistance]

It will go poof again..sadly that has become the trend here lately..showing it then it disappearing

You can blame the Teleconnections & The MJO for this . . . Lol

[Iceresistance]

Your negative crap sucks dude, everything I post “oh it aint gonna happen” you need some optimism dude their are definitely indications a pattern change is coming

You're talking to me??

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance no lol