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12z EPS , definitely think someone could be brewing down the road

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:04 pm 12z EPS , definitely think someone could be brewing down the road

The 12z GEFS was somewhat active as well.

That 00z GEFS run, big yikes

What’s it show?

Waters in the Gulf are continuing to rise. Temperatures are in the 87-91°F range.

vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 03, 2023 5:50 am What’s it show?

It’s showing a decent amount of activity in the Gulf in the timeframe I mentioned. Not a hugely strong signal yet but definitely something to watch.

The euro GFS and cmc operational models are all starting to pick up on development now fwiw

Models and Ensembles are trending toward the GoM "open for business" from August 15 - onward.

That 500 mb height pattern just screams gulf mischief

12z Euro has a developing weak low pressure system in the western GOM day 10, with another system behind that, interesting

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 04, 2023 2:22 pm 12z Euro has a developing weak low pressure system in the western GOM day 10, with another system behind that, interesting

When the operational Euro actually has something, that definitely catches my attention.

Cpv17 Yep, considering its always the most conservative, and what its showing isnt super big, but its definitely a weak closed low or strong tropical wave on that run, but more importantly is the euro sees that ridge over the SE US really pushing that “ system” in a general area of the western gulf

F' it. My grass is dying. Send a wave, lemonade, tropical storm, hurricane. I no longer care...

Ill take a weak tropical storm or a weak hurricane, this is probably the most miserable summer ive personally ever experienced

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 05, 2023 3:43 pm Ill take a weak tropical storm or a weak hurricane, this is probably the most miserable summer ive personally ever experienced

Unfortunately with weak systems we flood no thank you

Karen wrote: ↑Sat Aug 05, 2023 6:26 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 05, 2023 3:43 pm Ill take a weak tropical storm or a weak hurricane, this is probably the most miserable summer ive personally ever experienced

Unfortunately with weak systems we flood no thank you

That depends if they stall out or not. Has nothing to do with how weak/strong it is. It’s all about steering currents.

18z GEFS is fairly active in the Gulf. And it’s favoring the western Gulf as well. It also moved up the timeframe.

Models have backed off on any potential mischief

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 06, 2023 12:35 pm Models have backed off on any potential mischief

We’ll see what happens. My confidence is wavering but I’m not throwing in the towel just yet.

Better to have nothing/much form at all than to send another system into Louisiana that dries us up.