August 2023

[user:null]

I think I've cracked the case regarding the suppressed/inhibited environment across Texas during summer, and it's much simpler than I've thought: 1000-500mb thickness values!

I notice that the precipitation often "follows" a gradient within the 576-582 point, and is absent (or sparse at best) when the "thickness" is 582+. Thickness is increased by both moisture and temperature, and it's quite obvious that moisture lacks when a ridge is present. Ergo, it's definitely a function of pure temperature ... and it's possible that the sheer expanse of treeless flat land + elevated terrain (not just Mexican Plateau, but also LLano Estacado/Panhandle) creates a greater extent of sensible heating through a greater expanse of the column.

In contrast, the forested Southeast with more trees leads to more evaporative cooling, and there is more moisture content left even with ridging.

It looks like those scientists are definitely on to something when they express concerns of Amazon desertification with tree clearing...

[Stratton20]

And their is still time for the gulf to get even warmer! Unbelievable ! Once that dominant ridge is gone, oh boy the whole gulf coast state better be ready

[user:null]

Unfortunately, yes.

I'd rather have huge tropical cyclone compared to this drought: in fact, the only thing that I hate more than this drought is long lasting strong winter Feb 2021-esque cold snaps.

[Cpv17]

I’ve heard from 57 on Storm2K that he expects most of the action to be in the NE Caribbean, SW Atlantic, Florida, the EC, and out in the open Atlantic this year. From the sound of it (at least to me), it doesn’t sound like he really expects anything to get into the Gulf this year.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 i dont buy it lol, especially when it looks like the bermuda high is going to be getting stronger as we approach september , while our texas ridge will eventually rebuild and move further west , definitely leaving the gulf coast states at risk

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 i dont buy it lol, especially when it looks like the bermuda high is going to be getting stronger as we approach september , while our texas ridge will eventually rebuild and move further west , definitely leaving the gulf coast states at risk

I don’t necessarily buy it either but that seems to be the common theme amongst most on S2K this year.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I have my doubts about thay because all that energy and heat available in the gulf, it eventually has to be released, it cant just keep building up forever, its like a pop corn machine, eventually if you dont take the pop corn out its going to explode , same thing here with the tropics, ita going to take a few systems ( hurricanes) to really lower all of that available energy

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 I have my doubts about thay because all that energy and heat available in the gulf, it eventually has to be released, it cant just keep building up forever, its like a pop corn machine, eventually if you dont take the pop corn out its going to explode , same thing here with the tropics, ita going to take a few systems ( hurricanes) to really lower all of that available energy

S2K is very EC biased. Most people on there are from FL and along the EC. So it really wouldn’t surprise me that they would think that. Not a lot of people from Texas on there for whatever reason and most that are on there from Texas are from DFW.

[sambucol]

I’ve been concerned about our part of Texas being hit this year. The water temps are like gasoline.

[Ptarmigan]

Id rather live in Antarctica right now than in texas!

Boy, you would have hated 2011. Models were not a good as they are now. The models would have the high pressure ridge leaving and alas, it never did. The high pressure ridge literally ate a Tropical Storm ( Don) down in South Texas. I agree this Summer is bad.

2011 had La Nina. 2023 currently has a El Nino. 2011 was much drier than this year.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

If a job opening or a "rich uncle" passes - we'd like to move to NC or CO. Decades of Brazos Valley summers - it's time to raise the white flag.

Wyoming and Montana >>>>>>>>>> Idiocy of most local and state CO governments. Trust me.

NC is decent, but I will take upstate SC over NC or Eastern TN over NC. Some of our best friends just finally left North Chicago for an eastern burb of Charlotte. They like it much more.

Greenville - Spartanburg? Outside the nearby foothills, and the Furman area, which are great, it's a trash heap. Columbia and Florence in the middle of the state have a lot of destitution and they can have streaks of temps near 100°F, since they are in the sandhills. I like the low country of Charleston to Jekyll island - beautiful area of country. Warm and humid, but lots of beaches and golf. The Gatlinburg area is nice in TN. But I like Asheville and Boone as well.

I was thinking more Alamance County in between the Triangle (RDU) and Triad (Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point). Property and local taxes are lower, homes are more affordable. Three hours to the beach. Three hours to the mountains, and in old stomping grounds. I'd be good.

North of Charlotte near Lake Norman is pretty nice as well. Overall, good weather all year round. A couple of ice storms a year would be the major weather concern.

In CO, it's a matter of finding the right county and gobs of $$. I wouldn't mind staking West Yellowstone. lol

Given the amount of interference the state of TX has had in my life + the relentless heat, anywhere else would feel a lot more free.

Yes, I love the Clemson to Greenville area. My parents lived in NE TN and that is beautiful and nice. If it was NC, I’d go the Boone route or Blowing Rock. We used to have a house in Charleston area (Wild Dunes) and I love Folly Beach area.

I’ve dog sledded in West Yellowstone. It’s awesome!

[jasons2k]

If I were moving to NC I’d probably go with Boone, or near Hendersonville.

We lived in the Sea Islands for 4 years on Wilmington Island near Tybee. The climate was mostly great but the bugs were awful. The sand gnats came out every March and October and for a few weeks each fall and spring going outdoors was the equivalent of a blood donation.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Immediate weather concerns over the next 48 hours continue to
revolve around the potential for excessive heat as well as elevated
to critical fire weather conditions (see Fire section below). Little
change is expected to occur within the overall synoptic pattern for
the next several days with the area remaining under the influence of
a robust and persistent midlevel ridge centered over the Northern
Gulf. NBM guidance continues to exhibit little variability within
its members in terms of daily temperatures, and with little in the
way of change to the positioning of the aforementioned ridge it`s
another day where things mostly boil down to persistence. Afternoon
highs will once again eclipse the triple digits across much of the
area with some locations to the north of the Houston metro reaching
as high as 105. Additionally, heat index values near or above 110
are expected during the afternoon hours for the majority of the
region with values as high as 114 possible. Given this, Excessive
Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect across all of SE
TX. While a slight increase in the strength of the 850mb jet will
provide slightly gustier conditions across most of the area this
afternoon which may slightly mitigate outdoor heat stress (this is
not factored into the heat index), heat safety precautions should
nonetheless continue to be taken.

Overnight lows will likely remain at or above 80 across nearly all
of the region this evening, while locations along the coast will
continue to sit near 85. Heading into Thursday, slight increases in
midlevel heights are expected with a resultant marginal (1-2 degree)
increase in daytime highs possible. Given this, we continue to
anticipate the need for both Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories on Thursday, and it`s likely that the current products
will be expended during the afternoon forecast update later today.

Aside from the chance of a stray morning shower or storm well
offshore, rainfall is not expected over the next 48 hours. As such,
it`s expected for drought conditions to remain on a worsening trend.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Continued dangerous heat. Conditions may even get a bit hotter Friday
into the weekend (or at a very minimum feel that way). Heights rise,
H85 temps trend upward some, and wind speeds should be lower. GFS/NBM
continue to advertise some iso-sct precip possibilities heading
into midweek with some higher PW`s moving inland. Hope I`m wrong,
but have again undercut their suggested POPs as prevailing subsidence
will likely be pretty tough to overcome. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Scattered MVFR cigs remain in place across the area this morning,
with decks dissipating by around 15Z. Gustier conditions will
develop by late morning and will persist well into the evening as
sustained winds reach around 12-15 knots while gusts at times
approach up to 25 knots. VFR conditions will prevail into the
evening, with scattered MVFR cigs developing again after 06Z
tonight. No showers or thunderstorms are expected.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Moderate onshore winds and 3-5ft seas will persist through
Thursday night. Caution flags are out, though speeds may flirt
with Small Craft Advisory criteria tonight in the offshore waters.
Will maintain the high rip current risk along area beaches today.
Winds and seas slightly diminish Friday into the weekend, but
will follow a similar pattern. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Slightly gustier conditions, low minimum RH values of around 25-30%,
and dry fuels across the northern zones will continue to result in
elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning
remains in effect for Colorado, Austin, Washington, Burleson,
Brazos, Grimes, and Madison Counties this afternoon and evening.
Elsewhere, particularly in the Piney Woods region, conditions will
be near-critical and as such will need to be monitored closely. Many
local authorities continue to maintain Burn Bans across SE TX (check
with your local county authority for further info). Wind speeds will
reach around 15 mph across portions of the Brazos Valley this
afternoon, with higher gusts possible. In other locations, wind
speeds of 10-15 mph are expected to develop.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 104 81 105 79 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 102 82 104 82 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 85 93 85 / 10 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-
164-176>179-195>198-200.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ176-195>198-210-211.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ199-210>214-226-
227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...42

[DoctorMu]

Wyoming and Montana >>>>>>>>>> Idiocy of most local and state CO governments. Trust me.

NC is decent, but I will take upstate SC over NC or Eastern TN over NC. Some of our best friends just finally left North Chicago for an eastern burb of Charlotte. They like it much more.

Greenville - Spartanburg? Outside the nearby foothills, and the Furman area, which are great, it's a trash heap. Columbia and Florence in the middle of the state have a lot of destitution and they can have streaks of temps near 100°F, since they are in the sandhills. I like the low country of Charleston to Jekyll island - beautiful area of country. Warm and humid, but lots of beaches and golf. The Gatlinburg area is nice in TN. But I like Asheville and Boone as well.

I was thinking more Alamance County in between the Triangle (RDU) and Triad (Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point). Property and local taxes are lower, homes are more affordable. Three hours to the beach. Three hours to the mountains, and in old stomping grounds. I'd be good.

North of Charlotte near Lake Norman is pretty nice as well. Overall, good weather all year round. A couple of ice storms a year would be the major weather concern.

In CO, it's a matter of finding the right county and gobs of $$. I wouldn't mind staking West Yellowstone. lol

Given the amount of interference the state of TX has had in my life + the relentless heat, anywhere else would feel a lot more free.

Yes, I love the Clemson to Greenville area. My parents lived in NE TN and that is beautiful and nice. If it was NC, I’d go the Boone route or Blowing Rock. We used to have a house in Charleston area (Wild Dunes) and I love Folly Beach area.

I’ve dog sledded in West Yellowstone. It’s awesome!

Clemson/Anderson is a much different area than Greenville-Spartanburg. Anderson is a beautiful, still small, town. The drive from Anderson to Clemson and beyond is hilly - really like north of ATL, but less developed. There are lots of lakes, reservoirs around.

Spartanburg is more NASCAR and too crowded.

Charleston is still iconic and gateway to the low country and sea islands.

[DoctorMu]

If I were moving to NC I’d probably go with Boone, or near Hendersonville.

We lived in the Sea Islands for 4 years on Wilmington Island near Tybee. The climate was mostly great but the bugs were awful. The sand gnats came out every March and October and for a few weeks each fall and spring going outdoors was the equivalent of a blood donation.

haha The bugs near Wilmington NC, unless you're literally on the beach, are the worst ever. They get in your eyes, nose, everywhere.

Boone and Hendersonville are both great.

[user:null]

12ZCMC would be a dream come true. Still waiting on the GFS to finish.

[Stratton20]

12z GFS has the heat ridge breaking down around the 19th , and then it rebuilds and strengthens right over the SE or eastern US, if the GFS is correct, that kind of position of a ridge would force any sort of tropical entity into the gulf

[DoctorMu]

Wow - the GoM is so warm now that dewpoints all along the coast are near 80°F.

[DoctorMu]

12ZCMC would be a dream come true. Still waiting on the GFS to finish.

25°F temp drop behind that FROPA. Yes, please!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

12ZCMC would be a dream come true. Still waiting on the GFS to finish.

25°F temp drop behind that FROPA. Yes, please!

Lol, can that happen, say on the morning of 9/2?