November 2023

[Cpv17]

What does it show?

A lot of rain over southeast Texas through Saturday.

[don]

I'm at over 1" now,nice start for just day one of the event. The NAM shows a swath of 3-6+ inches of rain along the I-59 corridor.(Between tomorrow through Saturday)

And that's before Mondays system gets here.Which may end up being the "main event" as a shortwave sneaks underneath the ridge and becomes negatively tilted over the state. Triggering cyclogenisis along the front in the Gulf..The grounds are going to be saturated also by Monday.Wouldn't be surprised to see a Flash Flood watch eventually.Looks like we have some very wet days ahead of us.

[don]

So basically if we are going to see any flooding issues,it would probably be with Mondays system.Depending on how much instability is available as that will be a factor for rainfall rates.And also soil saturation.Rainfall rates should be manageable through the weekend though.

[Ptarmigan]

So basically if we are going to see any flooding issues,it would probably be with Mondays system.Depending on how much instability is available as that will be a factor for rainfall rates.And also soil saturation.Rainfall rates should be manageable through the weekend though.

Flooding has occurred in November. November of 1940 and 1998 come to mind.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/severe_events_november
https://pubs.usgs.gov/wsp/1046/report.pdf
https://www.twdb.texas.gov/publications ... c/M278.pdf

[DoctorMu]

That's the way its always been around here though.Prolonged cold doesn't happen often here.Its the consequences of living near the Gulf.There's always going to be a battle here between the dry cooler air from the north,and the warm moist air from the Gulf.And most of the time the Gulf will win out.That's why our climate is considered humid subtropical here.That's also why its hard to get snow here.The plus side of being near the Gulf is that it provides more opportunities for rain than other parts of the state.

Without the GoM, the inland South to the Appalachians would be a desert. Like Australia.

[DoctorMu]

Only about 0.22 inches of rain here so far. Death by a thousand paper cuts/raindrops.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Sat through a windy rainy playoff game tonight in Seguin.

Weimar won 55-0 over Junction.

Now on to Aggie Basketball in Columbus, OH tomorrow.

[Cromagnum]

1.2 inches as of about 10 PM here.

[jasons2k]

Sat through a windy rainy playoff game tonight in Seguin.

Weimar won 55-0 over Junction.

Now on to Aggie Basketball in Columbus, OH tomorrow.

Wow that’s crazy to think y’all played Junction, so far west.

Oak Ridge plays DeKaney from Spring on Saturday. Might be wet.

So far - .95” here as of midnight. A good start to day one. I can’t wait to see the upcoming USDA Drought maps next week.

[tireman4]

We just had a dual swim meet with Oak Ridge last night ( Summer Creek) . My son is a freshman on the Summer Crerk Varsity Swim Team

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 101147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 141 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023

A wet weather pattern is expected to prevail today and continue well
into the weekend. A slow moving cold front was moving across
Southeast Texas yesterday, and at around 230 AM CST this morning,
was moving south of I-10 and is expected to pass through the coastal
locations before sunrise. Even with the passage of the front,
periods of light to moderate rain, with areas of patchy fog at
times, can be expected today and tonight as healthy amounts of low
level moisture (PWs of around 2.0 inches south of I-10 and of around
1.5-1.8 inches north of I-10) remain over Southeast Texas while weak
disturbances move overhead and the front meanders nearby over the
coastal waters. At this time, expect much of the weather to be
rainfall with little to no thunder. The areas that are expected to
have the higher chances of rain will be over areas near and south of
I-10 with rainfall totals of around 1 inch with isolated higher
amounts possible.

On Saturday, a coastal low will develop over the Western Gulf and
help maintain good amounts of moisture over our area. Periods of
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms can be expected for much
of the day and early night with the heaviest activity once again
expected to be near and south of I-10. Expect another 1-2 inches of
rainfall totals with isolated higher amounts possible over these
locations. Rainfall totals decrease gradually northward towards the
Brazos Valley. Chance of rain slightly decreases overnight Saturday
into Sunday morning.

With respect to temperatures, the cooler air in the wake of the
front will decrease today`s highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s over
areas north of I-10 and the mid 60s to low 70s over areas south of I-
10. The lows late tonight into early Saturday morning will be in the
low to mid 50s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, the
mid to upper 50s for the rest of the inland portions, and low 60s
over the Barrier Islands. Temperatures on Saturday will be a few
degrees cooler with much of the region seeing highs in the upper 50s
to low 60s. The lows late Saturday night into early Sunday morning
will be a few degrees cooler, ranging in the low to mid 50s for much
of the region with a few spots staying in the upper 50s.

Cotto (24)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 141 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023

Your umbrella will become your BFF as the wet and dreary weather
continues into the long term. Scattered showers and very isolated
thunderstorms will be the story on Sunday, though areas along the
coast will have higher coverage of the showers compared to areas
north of Conroe which may just see an isolated shower or two. But
a robust upper level low will be moving into Texas on Monday
bringing increased PVA and WAA for SE Texas. In addition, a
coastal surface low will begin to deepen off the Coastal Bend area
of Texas. This all leads to more widespread precipitation
developing on Monday producing up to an additional 1-3" or more of
rain. This coastal low will stick around in the West Gulf until
that upper level low kicks it out to the east, which may not be
until Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Like the name suggests,
areas along the coast will have the best chances of rain Tuesday
and beyond. An additional 1-2" of rain will be possible through
the rest of the week.

With persistent cloudy, rainy conditions the temperatures will be
fairly stable through the long term. High temperatures Sunday through
Tuesday will be in the low to mid 60s with overnight temperatures
dipping down into the 50s (low 50s north of Conroe becoming the
upper 50s as you head to the coast). With increasing breaks in the
clouds mid week with the departing coastal low, a gradual warm up
is expected. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s expected by
Wednesday, and then low to mid 70s on Thursday.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 521 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023

A mix of IFR to VFR conditions will remain for much of the TAF
with clouds decks ranging from BKN/OVC 007-015. Periods of light
to moderate RA will also continue across SE TX throughout the
period. Areas of patchy fog could also occur at times, reducing
visibilities. Expect N winds at 08-15 KTS with higher gusts on
occasion today and at 05-08 KTS tonight into Sat morning.

Cotto (24)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023

A cold front will be moving off the coast within the next few
hours and then stall through the next several days. Breezy
north to northeasterly winds will develop behind the front at
around 10 to 15kts with the occasional stronger gusts and seas
building to 3 to 5ft. Widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop in the coastal waters along and behind
the stalled front. A coastal low may begin to develop along the
stall boundary late Sunday night into Monday increasing the
northeasterly winds to 20 to 25kts with gusts to gale possible
depending on the strength of the coastal low. In response, seas
will increase to 6 to 9ft. These conditions will persist through
at least Tuesday morning. The coastal low will eventually move to
the northeast by midweek next week. Another thing to keep an eye
on in the next few days is the potential for higher tides to
around 3-4ft above MLLW late Monday into Tuesday as the stronger
northeasterly flow persists. Although this is higher dependent on
the strength and location of the coastal low, which is still
uncertain at this time.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 54 60 53 / 40 60 60 30
Houston (IAH) 65 56 60 55 / 60 70 80 60
Galveston (GLS) 72 60 65 59 / 70 80 90 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...24
MARINE...Fowler

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Sat through a windy rainy playoff game tonight in Seguin.

Weimar won 55-0 over Junction.

Now on to Aggie Basketball in Columbus, OH tomorrow.

Wow that’s crazy to think y’all played Junction, so far west.

Oak Ridge plays DeKaney from Spring on Saturday. Might be wet.

So far - .95” here as of midnight. A good start to day one. I can’t wait to see the upcoming USDA Drought maps next week.

Yep, once you get out into the country , especially in 2A ball, your first round matchups, you can go far.

District 13 is Weimar, Holland, Thrall, Schulenburg, Thorndale and Hearne

District 14 is Junction, Mason, Harper, Johnson City and Stockdale.

And here’s the laugher. Our second round matchup in Region 4 is La Villa….. **checks map** yes, a small community on the border near McAllen.

If they win that, then it normalizes and they get Refugio.

[djmike]

Looking at radar, looks like the bulk of showers will be just offshore. Is it supposed to come back more inland?

[Stratton20]

I am seeing subtle hints at a major pattern change around or just after thanksgiving that could allow for a decent cold snap scross the US, just small hints, nothing huge, but larry cosgrove does bring this up as well

[Cpv17]

I am seeing subtle hints at a major pattern change around or just after thanksgiving that could allow for a decent cold snap scross the US, just small hints, nothing huge, but larry cosgrove does bring this up as well

As long as we keep getting rain, I’m good.

[Cpv17]

Looking at radar, looks like the bulk of showers will be just offshore. Is it supposed to come back more inland?

Check out the mesoscale models on Tropical Tidbits to see what they say. I haven’t had a chance yet to look at them.

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff:

If you like this morning you are going to like the next several days.

Weak surface front has moved to near the coast this morning and is slowing down and will stall over the northwest Gulf today. Plentiful moisture is being lifted up and over the surface front and when combined with jet stream disturbances aloft moving out of Mexico the end result will be periods of showers, light rain, and drizzle into early next week.

High resolution guidance shows the next upper air disturbance approaching the region from the southwest late this afternoon with showers becoming widespread…especially south of HWY 105. Given the lack of convective activity, rainfall rates will be on the lower side and average .10-.25 of an inch an hour…exactly what you need when you are trying to come out of a drought. Could be a few heavier showers at times, especially south of I-10 closer to the surface front. Rainfall has been widespread thus far with all of the area seeing at least some rain…highest totals yesterday were in a corridor from Spring to Jersey Village and then southward along the west Beltway where 1-2.5 inches of rain fell. Similar totals occurred over portions of southern Jackson into Wharton Counties.

Weekend:
Coastal trough will form on the frontal boundary along the lower and middle Texas coast as upper level energy continues to flow across the region from the southwest. This trough and eventually low will continue to produce a wet weather pattern across the region on Saturday. May see a bit of a break on Sunday, especially north of HWY 105, but will keep high rain chances going through the entire weekend with the highest totals south of I-10.

Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will be likely for areas south of I-10 with amounts of .50-1.0 inch north of I-10.

With rainfall rates likely to be light to at times moderate through the weekend, do not think there will be any significant flooding concerns.

Early Next Week:
Coastal low will deepen as a strong upper level trough approaches from northern Mexico. Global models are coming into better agreement that a fairly decent storm system is going to form off the middle Texas coast and move northeast near or just offshore of the upper Texas coast on Monday. Will start trending toward a very wet and stormy Monday with the potential for heavy rainfall across portions of the area. Additionally, as the surface low intensifies, winds will increase out of the northeast, and this will quickly build seas and possible some coastal flooding.

Additional rainfall on Monday of 1-3 inches is starting to look likely with isolated higher totals. Will need to watch this period in the coming days for those higher totals as grounds slowly saturate over the area.

Rainfall Amounts:
Rainfall totals today through the weekend will average 1-3 inches over the southern part of the area and .50-1.0 north of HWY 105. Totals early next week of 1-3 inches additional will be possible. Rainfall over the weekend should be able to be handled as rates will be on the lower end, but will have to watch Monday with any heavier rainfall rates potential on top of increasingly saturated grounds.

Temperatures will remain in the 50’s and 60’s through the entire period with clouds, rainfall, and northerly winds in place.

Forecasted Rainfall (Next 5 Days):


Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[Cromagnum]

SCW has jokes.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 LOL! Now thats good!

[jasons2k]

Storm total so far 1.44”

Lift is increasing again.