February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[txsnowmaker]

Ch. 11 says 19 Friday am in Houston and not getting back to above freezing until later that day, with ice and snow on Wednesday and Thursday. Just now on tv per David Paul.

[srainhoutx]

Jeff Lindner
@JeffLindner1
·
21m
THIS IS THE REAL DEAL FOLKS!
A historic, long duration, high impact arctic outbreak will bring widespread hazards and challenges to the region and state into next week. Travel will be crippled with motorist potentially stranded on roadways...stay put Sun PM-Tues. #houwx #txwx

[Cromagnum]

Someone mentioned earlier that comparing this to a cat 5 hurricane was a bad analogy. It actually could be worse, especially with getting hit back to back.

The devastation could cripple the power grid for a few months depending on the extent of the icing.

People won't lose their homes because it gets cold. Lina made a dumb analogy.

[Cpv17]

Right now the models just aren’t showing much moisture to work with south of 10 unfortunately but there’s still time for that to change.

Wasn't there suppose to be a low that formed in the gulf? How would that not spread more moisture south of i10

Because its kinda like 2 systems in 1 ,theirs the upper level part of the storm moving in form the pacific northwest.Which triggers a surface reflection in the gulf (surface low). But sometimes if the main upper level energy doesn't quite match up with the surface low.You can get an area that gets dry slotted,as the upper level low kinda "robs" moisture for itself.And the lower level low in the gulf also concentrates moisture around itself.And whoever ends up in the middle of those two zones can be dry slotted.

That’s a good way of explaining it. That’s why I’m rooting for the upper low to dig dig dig!!

[Tx2005]

Someone mentioned earlier that comparing this to a cat 5 hurricane was a bad analogy. It actually could be worse, especially with getting hit back to back.

The devastation could cripple the power grid for a few months depending on the extent of the icing.

A few months?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Wasn't there suppose to be a low that formed in the gulf? How would that not spread more moisture south of i10

Because its kinda like 2 systems in 1 ,theirs the upper level part of the storm moving in form the pacific northwest.Which triggers a surface reflection in the gulf (surface low). But sometimes if the main upper level energy doesn't quite match up with the surface low.You can get an area that gets dry slotted,as the upper level low kinda "robs" moisture for itself.And the lower level low in the gulf also concentrates moisture around itself.And whoever ends up in the middle of those two zones can be dry slotted.

That’s a good way of explaining it. That’s why I’m rooting for the upper low to dig dig dig!!

RGEM says you’ll get your wish. Mesoscale banding (sleet) down to the coasts.

[txsnowmaker]

It’s funny how people just don’t want to go out on a limb with snow forecasts. David Paul went through temperature, wind speed, and wind chill, and then at the very end put up a GFS map showing Monday at 6 am with a lot of white just to the west of us and then quickly cut away to the 7-day without a word on what might be coming. Lol.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

[Cpv17]

We also need the southeast ridge to work in our favor. Hopefully it won’t poke its head too far west causing the upper low to track too far north of us.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We also need the southeast ridge to work in our favor. Hopefully it won’t poke its head too far west causing the upper low to track too far north of us.

Arctic Airmasses don’t lose to SE ridges. Canadian ones will but not this. It’s a non-factor

[txsnowmaker]

The crazy thing is that the Wednesday system is shaping up to be the more potent one.

[Cpv17]

We also need the southeast ridge to work in our favor. Hopefully it won’t poke its head too far west causing the upper low to track too far north of us.

Arctic Airmasses don’t lose to SE ridges. Canadian ones will but not this. It’s a non-factor

I think it’s possible many people in southeast Texas stay below freezing starting tonight and not getting above freezing till next Friday afternoon.

[Kingwood36]

The crazy thing is that the Wednesday system is shaping up to be the more potent one.

Not for south of I 10 watch lol

[txsnowmaker]

The crazy thing is that the Wednesday system is shaping up to be the more potent one.

Not for south of I 10 watch lol

Lol. It at least gives you more hope than that evil 1%5 boundary lol.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We also need the southeast ridge to work in our favor. Hopefully it won’t poke its head too far west causing the upper low to track too far north of us.

Arctic Airmasses don’t lose to SE ridges. Canadian ones will but not this. It’s a non-factor

I think it’s possible many people in southeast Texas stay below freezing starting tonight and not getting above freezing till next Friday afternoon.

I think I’m one of those. Very reminiscent to 1983 except this one might be longer.

[DoctorMu]

My high temp today may end-up being colder than tonight’s forecast low. Think about that one...

Has not been above freezing here all day. Was progged just under 40°. lol

[Kingwood36]

I have 5 gallon buckets of water filled so when it freezes I'm going to toss it in the air and make snow ❄

[MontgomeryCoWx]

If I don't rise above freezing until next Friday/Saturday... that would be similar to living in Laramie, Wyoming.

Just to put all this into perspective.

[DoctorMu]

NWS has me now with a low of 9F on Tuesday morning. A little too warm, still, in my opinion, but getting there.

I'm putting an electric space heater in the garage because I have an exterior faucet line running along that exterior wall....I am glad my house is 100% brick and no siding - that may help a little.

There's a possibility we won't be above freezing until next Friday. 8 days. I rarely saw that as a young 'un in North Carolina.

[jasons2k]

Someone mentioned earlier that comparing this to a cat 5 hurricane was a bad analogy. It actually could be worse, especially with getting hit back to back.

The devastation could cripple the power grid for a few months depending on the extent of the icing.

People won't lose their homes because it gets cold. Lina made a dumb analogy.

They can in the middle of a pine forest with a major ice storm.