February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[Texaspirate11]

Joe Bastardi compared it to Carla....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Looking upstream, there are areas that are 10-15 degrees below forecasted temps.

That could spell below zero temps into Harris.... Not saying it WILL happen, but it wouldn't shock me.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Someone mentioned earlier that comparing this to a cat 5 hurricane was a bad analogy. It actually could be worse, especially with getting hit back to back.

The devastation could cripple the power grid for a few months depending on the extent of the icing.

People won't lose their homes because it gets cold. Lina made a dumb analogy.

They can in the middle of a pine forest with a major ice storm.

Thank you. My house is surrounded by Pines. In addition, pipes busting are very possible in the city and houses could flood if people don't take precautions. A flooded house in 10 degrees would be a miserable experience.

[DoctorMu]

Canadian was closest in predicting the Jan 10th event. We shall see.

[DoctorMu]

The crazy thing is that the Wednesday system is shaping up to be the more potent one.

For ice for sure...and the low afterwards are low teens here. Could be very bad.

[Texaspirate11]

HARDLY THE 1900

@BigJoeBastardi - In Texas,if you are talking winter,then 1899 is the benchmark, though other great outbreaks occurred in the 80s but not with back to back heavy snow and ice events. In Texas with hurricanes. 1900 and Carla are arguably the benchmarks, Winter wise, this is in that ballpark....

[txsnowmaker]

The crazy thing is that the Wednesday system is shaping up to be the more potent one.

For ice for sure...and the low afterwards are low teens here. Could be very bad.

Was thinking more on the snow front, at least for Houston, especially after listening to David Paul’s 5 pm telecast.

[Kingwood36]

I'm not getting my hopes up much here for maybe a glazing of ice

[txsnowmaker]

David Paul on now. Highlighted Euro model with 3.4 inches in the city. Mentioned possibility of blowing snow and near-blizzard conditions in Houston. Calls it “an amazing forecast” for next week.

[Ace]

Actually....I distinctly remember a few years ago in East Texas when a huge ice storm hit and power was out for...I think around 2 weeks (or more). It was an apocalypse. No, not the exact same as Cat 5 winds blowing things over but it was really horrible. My elderly mom had no heat in the house with really cold temps for a very long time. No food in stores.

Someone mentioned earlier that comparing this to a cat 5 hurricane was a bad analogy. It actually could be worse, especially with getting hit back to back.

The devastation could cripple the power grid for a few months depending on the extent of the icing.

People won't lose their homes because it gets cold. Lina made a dumb analogy.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I grew up in Longview and have experienced 2 weeks with no power after an ice storm. It sucks.

[davidiowx]

Dew point already down to 30 here with a temp of 34.6... it’s certainly colder than forecasted, even on the SW side of town.

[txsnowmaker]

The one thing that concerns me about David Paul’s latest discussion is pointing out that while the Euro shows 3.4 inches of snow for Houston, total QPF is 0.93 inches, which means that the remaining 0.59 inches would be freezing rain/ice. That part would not be good.

[TexasBreeze]

For those downplaying or disappointed, being colder than progged currently is the thing people south of I-10 need to keep in mind. I didn't see 40 today (stayed below 38) by Hooks Airport and models are too warm and have been. Should be earlier quicker precip type changeovers when they occur than the models say and further south too.

[Andrew]

Lol who all is downplaying this now? This is crazy if anyone is downplaying at this point.

[djmike]

I think EVERYONE will get a surprise this week. We always get more than forecasted (ice/snow). Beaumont is forecasted right on the snow/ice border. We always get a nice surprise when snow is forecasted.

[Cpv17]

Lol who all is downplaying this now? This is crazy if anyone is downplaying at this point.

People south of 10. There’s been a sharp gradient with ice/snow accumulations on the models north/south of 10. And the NWS even acknowledged it.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The South of I10 crowd will always have a cliff jumping mentality, and I kind of get why.

I'm 10x more likely to see accumulating snow, or really, any winter precip than someone south of I10.

With that said, I've looked around the country and models, and I believe everyone will see snow. The southern crowd may only see an inch (with a lot more ice), but I think they'll see something.

[Andrew]

Lol who all is downplaying this now? This is crazy if anyone is downplaying at this point.

People south of 10. There’s been a sharp gradient with ice/snow accumulations on the models north/south of 10. And the NWS even acknowledged it.

Everyone is going to be receiving precipitation but the further southwest you go the chances do go down some but either way the ECMWF indicates about .5-1in of total precipitation almost region-wide. I wouldn't really sweat it myself. Plus if I were south of I-10 I wouldn't want precipitation in general because more than likely it's going to be mostly freezing rain/sleet.


On another note, I have been monitoring the GFS sounding compared to the observed soundings for FTW and in general, the model is too conservative with the cold layer near the ground but is also too cold with the warm nose between 850mb-750bm. This will be something to continue to monitor as we head into the weekend to see if the typical biases the GFS and ECMWF have continue.

[srainhoutx]

Lol who all is downplaying this now? This is crazy if anyone is downplaying at this point.

People south of 10. There’s been a sharp gradient with ice/snow accumulations on the models north/south of 10. And the NWS even acknowledged it.

48 hours out and you believe everything is set in stone even with the forecasters at HGX? I'm willing to wager you Coastal Counties folk will see your share of sleet/freezing rain and the Causeway will be impassable...