Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 8:28 am
I think this could be our last threat for the yr.. once these week cool front start heading towards us in September it's more then likely going to sweep anything east if here like it normally does
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 8:28 am
I think this could be our last threat for the yr.. once these week cool front start heading towards us in September it's more then likely going to sweep anything east if here like it normally does
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 8:25 am
So if 99L takes longer to establish and crosses the Yucatan still weak, does that scenario shift things back west? Just seeing what to watch for. I'm confident that it strengthen inside the gulf no matter what though.
weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 8:27 am
Data continues to align with a Louisiana landfall. Today, early tomorrow is a time period to look for subtle shifts. But, overall, confidence is increasing in the forecast.
12Z Tropical Models -
I wonder how massive (size) this storm will be. I suppose that is an ongoing question as the days wears on.
On the larger than average size, but models are also hinting at subtle southwesterly/westerly shear. The system may not be perfectly symmetrical; east-side dominant.
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 8:28 am
I think this could be our last threat for the yr.. once these week cool front start heading towards us in September it's more then likely going to sweep anything east if here like it normally does
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 8:28 am
I think this could be our last threat for the yr.. once these week cool front start heading towards us in September it's more then likely going to sweep anything east if here like it normally does
Not so sure about that.
I disagree with you on that.
The CPC already has another area highlighted with a moderate chance for development in the Caribbean/southern Gulf and above average rainfall for southeast Texas as we head into September. This leads me to believe that if anything does develop, it could possibly head towards us. As far as this system we’re tracking currently, I’m done with it. I’ve pretty much been done with it ever since the 12z Euro run on Tuesday showed centra LA. Had a feeling the models would shift east because they all shifted north on Monday when the 12z Euro showed Matagorda Bay. My attention is on the next one.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Thu Aug 26, 2021 8:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
6z Euro with the shorter time range was very similar to the 0z. GFS is the outlier to the E. Enough spread on the ensembles that those especially around the golden triangle should continue to closely monitor.
Digging further into the 6z Euro ensembles. This kind of chart certainly wouldn't make me totally comfortable quite yet along the upper Texas coast. No question the trend and threat has shifted E to Vermillion Bay and points e, but any subtle changes to ridging or the weakness created would have impacts even to the w. Likely at this point, no. But not off the table...
Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:10 am
Digging further into the 6z Euro ensembles. This kind of chart certainly wouldn't make me totally comfortable quite yet along the upper Texas coast. No question the trend and threat has shifted E to Vermillion Bay and points e, but any subtle changes to ridging or the weakness created would have impacts even to the w. Likely at this point, no. But not off the table...
The whole southeast approach along fragile ridging is getting old; Laura, now this system.
prospects8903 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:22 am
I’m located in Port Arthur…any thoughts on a chance for impact on my area?
You are certainly not in the clear in Port Arthur. Keep very close tabs on the updates throughout the day into tomorrow. You should already have your personal Hurricane plan dusted off and I would definitely be making sure that supplies are replenished. I'm seeing way too many folks including some of the local Houston Mets sounding an all clear for the Upper Texas Coast.
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Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:10 am
Digging further into the 6z Euro ensembles. This kind of chart certainly wouldn't make me totally comfortable quite yet along the upper Texas coast. No question the trend and threat has shifted E to Vermillion Bay and points e, but any subtle changes to ridging or the weakness created would have impacts even to the w. Likely at this point, no. But not off the table...
The whole southeast approach along fragile ridging is getting old; Laura, now this system.
prospects8903 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:22 am
I’m located in Port Arthur…any thoughts on a chance for impact on my area?
You are certainly not in the clear in Port Arthur. Keep very close tabs on the updates throughout the day into tomorrow. You should already have your personal Hurricane plan dusted off and I would definitely be making sure that supplies are replenished. I'm seeing way too many folks including some of the local Houston Mets sounding an all clear for the Upper Texas Coast.
Yeah srain I’m seeing that to and they should know better.
prospects8903 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:22 am
I’m located in Port Arthur…any thoughts on a chance for impact on my area?
You are certainly not in the clear in Port Arthur. Keep very close tabs on the updates throughout the day into tomorrow. You should already have your personal Hurricane plan dusted off and I would definitely be making sure that supplies are replenished. I'm seeing way too many folks including some of the local Houston Mets sounding an all clear for the Upper Texas Coast.
I echo Steve here. He has forgotten more about tropical systems ( and long range forecasts) than I know about anything weather related. Always be prudent. Make sure your supplies are stocked and checked. Make sure your generator is working ( test it out) and have gas for it. Go over your check list. It is always good to have it handy, no matter what the situation ( and as we experienced this past Winter, you might need it then too).
Im not sure if this is how this works but since 99L is still moving WNW, if it takes longer to consolidate, would this have an effect on the track? Im 90% confident this is a Louisiana storm, but i still am not writing this off completely just like srainhoutx said,* nvm its already formed a LLC
Last edited by Stratton20 on Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
