February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[txsnowmaker]

New Ukmet. Oh my...

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[txsnowmaker]

So David Paul said he thinks system 2 is all snow for Houston, with temps below freezing through Friday. Per below, NWS has 0.83 inches of rain for Wednesday/Thursday. If David is right we could be looking at a ton more snow!

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... headDay=96

[djmike]

New Ukmet. Oh my...

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Wow! How many times do you see inches on snow reaching into the gulf from SETX? Never! This new update gives us in Beaumont 6-8 inches of snow. Wow! I agree, we might not ever see this again. Why is SETX the hot spot for “never see again in your lifetime” storms? (Harvey, Imelda, Storm Elsa ) lol

[djmike]

We need a name for this storm/event like they do up north and we do for hurricanes. I think this event is worthy. ..... Storm Elsa maybe? lol

[Andrew]

ECMWF shows pretty much worse case scenario with freezing rain. If we see .5-.75 in of freezing rain we could see major damage and power outages region wide.

[Cpv17]

Hardly any snow south of 10 on the latest Euro.

[walsean1]

That type of ice storm would pretty much cripple the region for days on top of a another Winter Storm Wednesday. This would be the equivalent of (2) Major Hurricanes in a span of 5 days. The bad thing is you can’t get around because of the hazardous road conditions.

[TXWeatherMan]

06Z icon has me getting down to 1 degree in Montgomery county

[Texaspirate11]

We need a name for this storm/event like they do up north and we do for hurricanes. I think this event is worthy. ..... Storm Elsa maybe? lol

TWC has names for winter storms - this one will be URI followed by VIOLA.

[Andrew]

I'm encouraged by the trend from the models overnight regarding the system later in the week. It looks like the coastal low is forecasted to track further west along the coast with most of the immediate Houston Metro avoiding another freezing rain event. It's still five days out but hopefully, the trend continues and it's only a rain event.

[cperk]

We need a name for this storm/event like they do up north and we do for hurricanes. I think this event is worthy. ..... Storm Elsa maybe? lol

Uri is this winter storms name.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Area Forecast Discussion from HGX:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
455 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Due to overcast skies and cold air advection, today`s and
tomorrow`s high temperatures will struggle to reach near freezing
for areas north of Harris County and West of Fort Bend County.
Everywhere else is expected to reach highs near 40. Overnight
lows tonight will be below freezing north of I-10 and outside of
the Houston-Metro area. Remaining areas will hover near freezing.

An approaching shortwave trough from the southwest will gradually
bring rain chances starting this afternoon as it pushes east
across our area. With forecast soundings indicating a well-
saturated column below 700mb, a brief elevated warm layer, and
surface temps hovering near freezing, freezing drizzle and some
form of wintry mix are possible with these passing, isolated
showers. Highest chances for this wintry mix and winter precip are
north of I-10 and the Houston-Metro area. KBL

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]...

...Frigid, life and property threatening winter weather is expected
into Thursday...

* Bitterly cold air will continue moving into the region into
midweek as an Arctic airmass spills into the area. Prolonged
periods of below freezing temperatures are expected - even at the
beaches.

* 2 weather systems (one Sunday night-Monday morning and another
toward midweek) will produce winter precipitation across many
parts of Southeast Texas.

* Travel will be impacted by hazardous road conditions. Sporadic
power outages will be a possibility where ice builds up on
powerlines and/or trees. Pipes (including sprinkler systems) will
be subject to bursting if not adequately insulated, and
hypothermia may be a possibility for those exposed and not dressed
accordingly.

* Residents complete should complete preparations before the coldest
air and widespread frozen precipitation begins arriving Sunday
evening. Remember the 4 P`s: pipes, people, pets and plants. In
addition, be aware of space heater and generator dangers if not
properly placed/used.


Sunday night-Monday morning storm system:
Still on track to move across the region. Winter Storm Warnings and
Watches remain in place across all of the region. The Watches will
be upgraded at some point later today or tonight assuming no earth
shattering forecast changes. The same general forecast reasoning
remains in place from previous several days worth of discussions so
won`t rehash that. Look for rain-freezing rain to transition to a
mix then eventually snow as it exits. Not an ideal situation
whatsoever starting out with ice and expect this to cause numerous
impacts across the region. Precip will taper off by early afternoon.

Changes/tweaks made to the ongoing forecast include increasing snow
amounts, especially n/nw of Highway 59 where fcst soundings show the
warm nose eroding faster. Have storm totals of 3-4" across northern
parts of the area tapering down to around 1/2" just south of I-10
(this on top of ice). Though differing details between guidance,
several indicate the potential for significantly higher amounts with
banding and frontogenesis. Some models show prime upper jet
orientations to enhance over lift as well - but vary by model (LFQ
or RRQ). Also tweaked high temps down into midweek considering
frozen accumulations on the ground and lack of significant heating.

Highs for the day Monday will occur first thing in the morning
followed by continued falling readings thru the day. Bone chilling
readings in the single digits north and teens to low 20s coast are
expected Monday night.

Tue night-Thurs system:
Heading into Tues night and Wed, a sfc coastal trough will begin
developing in advance of the next upper trof fcst to push thru later
this week. This will transport moisture back overhead. Look for
precip to begin developing Tue evening then expand in coverage
overnight and Wednesday. A mixed bag of precip is anticipated,
depending on geographic location and model of choice. Didn`t dig too
much into the specifics with this system considering it`s many days
away and guidance is bound to change a million times between now and
then. But, the potential is there for additional accumulations and
associated impacts especially further inland from the coast where
the thermal profile will be better.

Precip should clear out ~Thurs evening followed by a gradual warm-up
next weekend. 47

[srainhoutx]

Winter Storm Warning issued beginning tonight for the Northern half of SETX:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
546 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212-132200-
/O.UPG.KHGX.WS.A.0003.210214T2100Z-210216T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.WS.W.0002.210214T0300Z-210216T0000Z/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Colorado-Austin-Waller-
Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton,
Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston,
Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham,
Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar,
Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, and Waller
546 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Tonight, an upper level disturbance will bring areas
light freezing rain and freezing drizzle to the area. Expect a
glaze of ice on area roads and especially bridges. Sunday night
into Monday, expect a much stronger system to move into the
area. Freezing rain will transition to a sleet/snow mix followed
snow. Snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected with
higher amounts possible. This will be on top of a layer of of
ice between 1/10 to 1/4 inch thick. Additionally, it will become
extremely cold, with long stretches of next week spent below
freezing. Minimum wind chills may fall below zero.

* WHERE...Northern half of Southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 9 PM today to 6 PM Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult...if not impossible
late Sunday into Monday. The extremely low wind chills as low
as 15 below zero will become life threatening to people and
animals outside without adequate warmth or shelter! The strong
winds could also result in blowing and drifting of snow
yielding near white out conditions with visibility less than
1/2 mile at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A major winter storm is forecast to occur. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Prepare
for power outages and have non-perishable food and water on hand.
Do not travel unless it is an emergency. If you must travel, keep
an extra blanket, flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in
case you become stranded.

The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at
drivetexas.org.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yep, more confident that we will not be back above freezing and will see light freezing rain today.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Wow, 0Z UKMET

[srainhoutx]

Saturday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Upgrading the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning starting at 900pm Saturday for areas north and west of Houston

High impact winter storm will affect the area Sunday night into Monday midday with severe travel hazards

Extreme cold temperatures will be in place Monday and Tuesday resulting in widespread challenges

Discussion:

Short range models are coming in faster and stronger with a disturbance for this evening and overnight and have also shifted the freezing line southward tonight from roughly north of Victoria to west of Katy to near Tomball to Conroe. Precipitation is expected to develop late this afternoon and evening over the area and linger into Sunday morning. Areas northwest of the freezing line will likely see accumulations of ice on bridges and overpasses and all elevated surface…hence the Winter storm warning start time has been moved up to 900pm this evening. Travel conditions will likely become hazardous overnight into Sunday morning in the warning area and all precautions for the upcoming extreme cold should be completed today.

Sunday afternoon-Monday midday:

A much stronger upper level storm system will move across Texas during this time period resulting in widespread freezing and frozen precipitation. Precipitation will begin to develop late Sunday afternoon and overspread the entire area Sunday evening. Temperature profiles support a mixture of freezing rain, sleet and snow across much of the entire area with more freezing rain along and south of I-10 and more sleet and snow north of I-10. Latest global and short range models have increased the snowfall amounts across SE TX due to their showing of meso scale banding and higher intensity snowfall and sleetfall rates. Will bump up snow totals a bit and see if this trend continues. North winds of 15-25mph are likely Sunday into Monday and this will add extra stress against ice coated trees and powerlines and may result in power outages.

Accumulations:

Freezing rain: 1/10th to 1/4th an inch over much of the area, especially the US 59 corridor

Sleet: ½ to 1 inch mainly north of I-10

Snow: 1-2 inches north of I-10, 2-4 inches north of HWY 105

Much of the area will see a period of freezing rain with temperatures in the mid 20’s so a layer of ice will be formed below any sleet or snow accumulations.

Travel starting Sunday evening will become nearly impossible and is strongly discouraged…anyone attempting to travel should be prepared to become stranded on roadways

Monday-Tuesday Cold:

Record breaking cold is likely during this period with temperatures falling below freezing Sunday afternoon and evening and likely remaining below freezing into Wednesday. Models have continued to trend a bit colder, but there is little difference between 8/9 and 11/13 so with let the forecast ride in the low teens for all areas north of I-10 and then 1’s Waller and Montgomery counties northward. Mid to upper 10’s into the coastal areas and near 20 at the beaches. Simply put the cold will result in devastating impacts to the region both to infrastructure and vegetation. Wind chills Monday afternoon into Tuesday will fall into the -1’s and 1’s over the entire area…this is extremely dangerous cold to exposed skin and persons should limit their time outdoors and make sure all exposed skin is covered.

I cannot stress enough that maximum cold weather preparation MUST be taken to help attempt to mitigate significant property damage.

Preparations:

Protect all and any exposed pipes, shut off and drain sprinkler systems. Open cabinet doors and closet doors to get as much heat against outside facing wall pipes as possible starting Sunday night. In some cases the best course of action may be to shut off water to a structure and drain pipes overnight when water usage is low to avoid pipes freezing and bursting.

Heavily cover and protect any tropical vegetation, citrus, or vulnerable plants. Given the intensity and depth of the freezing conditions this will likely be a killing freeze for much of the tropical landscape of this region.

Pets and livestock should have proper shelter, feed, and water. Normal water supplies will likely freeze over including stock ponds and lakes.

Persons should plan to limit outdoor exposure Monday and Tuesday as wind chills will be dangerously cold for our region. Prolonged exposure could result in frostbite and hypothermia.

Detailed Forecast for Harris County:

Today: Cloudy with a 30% chance of afternoon and evening light rain and drizzle. High in the upper 30’s. N wind 10-15mph

Sunday: Cloudy with a 40% chance of light rain or drizzle early then a chance of freezing rain and sleet by evening. Temperatures steady in the mid 30’s . N wind 15-20mph. Wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s.

Monday: Cloudy with a 100% chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Ice accumulation of up to 1/4th an inch and snow accumulation of 1-2 inches. Temperatures steady in the mid 20’s. N wind 15-25mph. Wind chills in the 10’s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a low in the low to mid 10’s and high near 30. N wind 5-10mph. Wind chills 1’s.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a 60% chance of precipitation. Low in the mid 20’s and high in the mid 30’s. NE wind 10-15mph.

[Kingwood36]

Wow, 0Z UKMET

How believable is the uk?

[txsnowmaker]

I’ll take the latest NAM 3k!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_61.png

[srainhoutx]

Wow, 0Z UKMET

How believable is the uk?

Some of those totals are likely sleet. For instance the 06Z 3km NAM suggests a mostly sleet event for those of you in the Coastal tier of Counties possibly ending as snow. Most of the freezing rain on the 3km NAM is at the start of the Sunday afternoon event and transitions to sleet Sunday evening. I suspect these shorter range guidance will continue to adjust throughout today into tomorrow and we'll have to monitor that warm nose eroding much quicker than currently being forecast. I also strongly suspect the Southern half of SE Texas will be in a Winter Storm Warning this afternoon.

[txsnowmaker]

I'm encouraged by the trend from the models overnight regarding the system later in the week. It looks like the coastal low is forecasted to track further west along the coast with most of the immediate Houston Metro avoiding another freezing rain event. It's still five days out but hopefully, the trend continues and it's only a rain event.

Hopefully the low tracks close enough but it’s only a snow event.