Page 66 of 85
Re: August 2021: Watching the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:42 am
by Cpv17
Andrew wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:24 am
Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:16 am
Ukie into Marsh Island/Vermillion Bay
It was the last reliable model showing a westerly landfall. Amazing how quickly the models adjusted from an elongated low developing along the coast of Central America to one developing southwest of Jamaica and tracking north/northwest. We went from a Mexico landfall to a Lousiana landfall over a matter of 24-36 hours
The Louisiana solution isn’t completely surprising. Some ensembles were hinting at the more northerly lobe becoming the dominant feature a few days ago, therefore, making for a faster and further east landfall.
Re: August 2021: Watching the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:49 am
by TXWeatherMan
If the 00z models tomorrow night are still showing Louisiana I’ll feel a lot more comfortable.
Re: August 2021: Watching the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:50 am
by DoctorPi
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:03 am
All i can say is i hope we get some rain this week, this current hot weather pattern can take a hike, this heat make me feel so tired, mother nature is a bi*ch sometimes lol
I have to agree, to be honest. It astounds me how much people wish for hot, dry weather in this part of the state. A really sickening pattern indeed.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:56 am
by Stratton20
DoctorPi yeah I go to A&M in college station and man just walking in the heat to get where im going is miserable, a cooling shower would be welcomed greatly
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:02 am
by tireman4
Hurricane Hunter Flight Today
Today’s scheduled flight is expected to arrive around 20:00z/4pm EST, which should be just in time to give the NHC plenty of data for the 5pm advisory. However, that time was based on a further south center, so the plane could get to TD9/Ida earlier now that it’s further north.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:08 am
by Kingwood36
Cone
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:11 am
by tireman4
Another look at the "Cone"
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:12 am
by srainhoutx
NHC intensity forecast suggests gusts to115 kts at landfall. Major Hurricane a possibility.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:15 am
by tireman4
Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Possibilities (Preliminary)
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:16 am
by weatherguy425
tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:15 amWind Field
Just to clarify, that is not the literal wind field. That is a graphic displaying the chance of tropical storm force winds.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:17 am
by tireman4
weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:16 am
tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:15 amWind Field
Just to clarify, that is not the literal wind field. That is a graphic displaying the chance of tropical storm force winds.
Sorry, I will fix. I rushed it.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:18 am
by Stormlover2020
Nam way west high pressure looks stronger
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:23 am
by CRASHWX
Still dont think the models are done moving significantly…now predicted faster forward motion, how does that effect the timing with the ridge weakening and second does the ridge weaken as much if the mid-west trough does not dig as far south? Maybe I am chasing a rabbit down a hole?
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:23 am
by prospects8903
Looking at where they estimate CoC looks to me the models initiated to far to the east…I’m just a novice…might be looking at it wrong
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:25 am
by prospects8903
Nam into Galveston
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:30 am
by Kingwood36
Wouldn't trust the nam...
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:31 am
by Stormlover2020
Nam sucks but looking at the ridge, it’s stronger
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:32 am
by Cromagnum
Dang. This initial track doesn't really have it going anywhere near the Yucatan.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:34 am
by Stratton20
Ridge is stronger? How can yall tell that?
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:35 am
by Kingwood36
I don't think it will have much effect on the track tho would it?