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Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:11 pm
by Stratton20
Don yep looking likely that we have another potential system to track soon

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:14 pm
by DoctorMu
jasons2k wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:56 am
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:45 am Jasons2k I wouldnt say that just yet, until the upper texas coast is out of the cone, its not all clear just yet
Monday’s forecast: hot and dry.
Really hot.

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:17 pm
by tireman4
The latest briefing on TD Nine from HGX

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:27 pm
by captainbarbossa19
I am starting to get 2008 vibes this season now.

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:32 pm
by sambucol
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:27 pm I am starting to get 2008 vibes this season now.
Why? I thought the models are showing it heading away from us?

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:37 pm
by captainbarbossa19
sambucol wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:32 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:27 pm I am starting to get 2008 vibes this season now.
Why? I thought the models are showing it heading away from us?
They are generally. I just think that this will not be the last threat and the next one might be a direct hit. This is reminding me of Gustav before Ike.

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:39 pm
by srainhoutx
RECON in the air.

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:43 pm
by Cpv17
Man that next storm looks nasty!! Like Scott was saying a few days back, that one could have big potential.

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:47 pm
by don
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:37 pm
sambucol wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:32 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:27 pm I am starting to get 2008 vibes this season now.
Why? I thought the models are showing it heading away from us?
They are generally. I just think that this will not be the last threat and the next one might be a direct hit. This is reminding me of Gustav before Ike.
FWIW 2008 is one of the analogs for this years season.

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:55 pm
by Waded
I feel bad for Louisiana. 5 storms last year, and here they are getting another one. Can't catch a break.

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:14 pm
by tireman4
Wxman 57 on S2K

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:19 pm
by Kingwood36
tireman4 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:14 pm Wxman 57 on S2K

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).
Wait..we have another coming after labor day?

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:21 pm
by don
Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:19 pm
tireman4 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:14 pm Wxman 57 on S2K

Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).
Wait..we have another coming after labor day?
Possibly, the GFS and CMC are already picking up on TC genesis as early as next Wednesday in the northwest caribbean like TD 9.

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:22 pm
by Stratton20
Kingwood36 I assume hea talking about the storms that the GFS is showing around day 8-10 after IDA, dont know why hes claiming its going to hit Lousiana when that literally is 11 days out on the model

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:24 pm
by don
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:22 pm Kingwood36 I assume hea talking about the storms that the GFS is showing around day 8-10 after IDA, dont know why hes claiming its going to hit Lousiana when that literally is 11 days out on the model
He was being sarcastic...

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:24 pm
by weatherguy425
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:22 pm Kingwood36 I assume hea talking about the storms that the GFS is showing around day 8-10 after IDA, dont know why hes claiming its going to hit Lousiana when that literally is 11 days out on the model
He was being sarcastic... 😉

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:25 pm
by Stratton20
Ah gotcha lol, sarcasm is hard to pick up on social media a lol

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:27 pm
by 225forlyfe
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:22 pm Kingwood36 I assume hea talking about the storms that the GFS is showing around day 8-10 after IDA, dont know why hes claiming its going to hit Lousiana when that literally is 11 days out on the model
He was being a smart ***. He has a dry sense of humor. The GFS spins up systems all the time, the GEFS shows nothing ATM. He was trying to be funny. :lol:

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:33 pm
by Stratton20
225forlyfe ah gotcha haha, I dont follow his twitter account ao I didnt know if he was joking or being serious lol

Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:35 pm
by Andrew
The 12Z ECMWF is a little faster with TD Nine and a tad weaker. Makes it a little further west which would be a better solution compared to the GFS for NOLA region