Wx Infinity Forums

I’m doing a race on NYD I’m just hoping it’s not a balmy 73 like last year. Hoping for cooler weather.

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:50 am

don wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:27 am The 12Z HRRR.Also looks like the cold air will stick round longer than thought a few days ago,as there will be reinforcement shots of arctic air into early next week as shortwaves swing by on the backside of the trough.

So your saying there's a chance.....

While i wouldn't completely discount precip with one of the shortwaves,right now it still looks too dry.And i would expect just dry cold air as the shortwaves pass through for now.If that potent shortwave on Monday will dig more to the southwest then things could get interesting,but not looking likely for now.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:53 am 13°F looks about right over here. Was hoping for 17°F (how pathetic for a gardener to say) but I'm thinking the 13°F printed on the HRRR looks like a solid prediction, for now.

I've seen a lot of fresh, baby queen palms in yards (not mine). Here we go again.

Don’t Christmas lights and burlap work well on them?

christinac2016 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:57 am I’m doing a race on NYD I’m just hoping it’s not a balmy 73 like last year. Hoping for cooler weather.

Looks like 40s to low 60s, so average.

12Z GFS gets so close to showing a classic cold core low snowstorm setup. With the potent shortwave on Monday now further west and closes itself off on top of us.Air is still too dry but good setup for evaporative cooling, interesting.

don wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:40 am 12Z GFS gets so close to showing a classic cold core low snowstorm setup. With the potent shortwave on Monday now further west and closes itself off on top of us.Air is still too dry but good setup for evaporative cooling, interesting.

Wouldn't the dry air prevent it from doing so tho?

Daily SOI close to +40

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:21 am

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:53 am 13°F looks about right over here. Was hoping for 17°F (how pathetic for a gardener to say) but I'm thinking the 13°F printed on the HRRR looks like a solid prediction, for now.

I've seen a lot of fresh, baby queen palms in yards (not mine). Here we go again.

Don’t Christmas lights and burlap work well on them?

That’s actually pretty effective if you can cover the whole tree. Most people don’t, though.

I have some 6ft tall Mule Palms I plan to wrap. The windmill palms will be fine. We have a lot of stuff to bring into the garage.

The whole thing is taking a bit of a toll on me. I recently had a hernia surgery so I can’t lift anything. All I can do is stand and point while my wife and boys have to do everything. All that on top of last minute holiday preps is a lot right now. It kills me inside to be practically useless while all this is going on. We are gonna take a break this evening and head your direction to see the lights at the Gullo House - and on the way have early dinner at the Eden Cafe. Yum!

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:58 am

don wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:40 am 12Z GFS gets so close to showing a classic cold core low snowstorm setup. With the potent shortwave on Monday now further west and closes itself off on top of us.Air is still too dry but good setup for evaporative cooling, interesting.

Wouldn't the dry air prevent it from doing so tho?

Yep(noticed i mentioned the air is still too dry),but you can overcome some of the dry air if you have a potent enough shortwave to produce enough lift squeezing out the little moisture available.But the shortwave has to be pretty potent because of how dry the air will be.Something around the strength of what the GFS shows would be good if the storm dug more to our west and/or became negatively tilted to our west before getting here.

don wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:27 am The 12Z HRRR.Also looks like the cold air will stick round longer than thought a few days ago,as there will be reinforcement shots of arctic air into early next week as shortwaves swing by on the backside of the trough.

That's not showing up in my forecast from NOAA. I see a predicted low of 19 on Thursday night. Warm up to 33-34 on Friday then low 20s Friday night. Then above freezing and a warm up.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 12:01 pm

don wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:27 am The 12Z HRRR.Also looks like the cold air will stick round longer than thought a few days ago,as there will be reinforcement shots of arctic air into early next week as shortwaves swing by on the backside of the trough.

That's not showing up in my forecast from NOAA. I see a predicted low of 19 on Thursday night. Warm up to 33-34 on Friday then low 20s Friday night. Then above freezing and a warm up.

Yes its still going to warm up im not saying that it wont,but the reinforcement of cold air that will come with each shortwave passage will stop it from warming up as quickly as it would.So yes we will be warmer on Christmas than Thursday and Friday but relatively speaking we still are going to be cold with highs struggling to get out of the 30's until Tuesday.

To be fair to HGX though If the shortwaves take a more eastern track it will warm up quicker here.

lets hope they dont!

Looking at the latest 12Z EURO, CMC,and ICON.For now the GFS is by itself in regards to the track and potency of the shortwave on Monday.The other models show the shortwave much further northeast and more sheared.

Just a gut feeling but I dont think this blast will be as severe as expected, at least not in my area. I dont think we'll see teens and Im thinking highs upper 30s-40 over the weekend. Nothing we havent seen before.

don wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:27 am The 12Z HRRR.Also looks like the cold air will stick round longer than thought a few days ago,as there will be reinforcement shots of arctic air into early next week as shortwaves swing by on the backside of the trough.

Yeah, 13°F has been my prediction for a week and am sticking to it.

s/w FTW?!

Once cold air sticks in place our chance rise to the "Could be?" range.

don wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:07 am

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:58 am

don wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:40 am 12Z GFS gets so close to showing a classic cold core low snowstorm setup. With the potent shortwave on Monday now further west and closes itself off on top of us.Air is still too dry but good setup for evaporative cooling, interesting.

Wouldn't the dry air prevent it from doing so tho?

Yep(noticed i mentioned the air is still too dry),but you can overcome some of the dry air if you have a potent enough shortwave to produce enough lift squeezing out the little moisture available.But the shortwave has to be pretty potent because of how dry the air will be.Something around the strength of what the GFS shows would be good if the storm dug more to our west and/or became negatively tilted to our west before getting here.

Yes, you can precipitate your way out of the Verga to Victory.

snowman65 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 1:02 pm Just a gut feeling but I dont think this blast will be as severe as expected, at least not in my area. I dont think we'll see teens and Im thinking highs upper 30s-40 over the weekend. Nothing we havent seen before.

Teens are a given for me, and probably low teens.

GEM has a 11°F for us Thursday night and 9°F Christmas Eve. Doesn't warm up until Thursday. Upper 50s for New Year's.

NOAA has 15°F Thursday night, so 13°F sounds about right.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 1:17 pm

snowman65 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 1:02 pm Just a gut feeling but I dont think this blast will be as severe as expected, at least not in my area. I dont think we'll see teens and Im thinking highs upper 30s-40 over the weekend. Nothing we havent seen before.

Teens are a given for me, and probably low teens.

GEM is going with about 10°F for you.

I just got a TAMU NWS briefing. They are going with 14-16°F for Montgomery and us. Could be a few degrees colder as the cold is not surprisingly overperforming so far.

KBTX is progging 15°F locally, so we're converging on expectations...and moving on to NowCasting.